Latest Update - April 17th
Here’s a quick recap of what happened over the last week:
House Committee Approves Fines for Quorum Breakers
The Texas House Administration Committee voted last Friday along party lines to force Democratic House members that broke quorum last year to pay fines for their absence that prevented the House from doing business for several weeks. Democrats fled the state last July when the legislature was called into a special session to consider a new Republican backed redraw of the state’s 38 Congressional districts.
Under the state constitution, a quorum – 100 members of the 150-member House – must be present for the House to conduct business. With a majority of the 62 Democrats participating the quorum break, the House was well shy of the 100 votes needed to conduct business.
The 52 members that fled were assessed fines totaling $8,354.25 for the entirety of their absence. This constituted not only the daily fines assessed for their absence but also costs estimated by the Department of Public Safety in pursuit of the absent members. Under House rules, members cannot use campaign funds to pay the fines, which is a question subject to legal interpretation. The fines will not be in effect until the members are formally notified by the Administration Committee, and no timetable was given on when the official notification would occur.
Senate Leadership Fund Still Not Committing to Cornyn
Last week we reported that the Senate Leadership Fund – the PAC tied to US Senate Majority Leader John Thune – has committed to a $342 million budget in the fall elections to not only protect incumbent Republican members but also fund challengers to Democratic incumbents in battleground states. The budget did not include any funds to be directed to the race in Texas.
The SLF – who provided the Cornyn campaign with over $50 million for his primary race -- continues to remain silent on not only if they will put resources towards ensuring the reelection of a Republican in November, but also whether they will continue to fund incumbent John Cornyn in the runoff against challenger Ken Paxton. President Trump has still not endorsed in the race – and each day that goes by an endorsement seems less likely. Furthermore, many of Trump’s more partisan supporters have urged him to remain neutral, confident the more conservative Paxton will prevail in the runoff.
Runoffs tend to be very low turnout, dominated by the more partisan voters. 2.3 million voted in the Republican primary on March 3rd, and the turnout for the May 26th runoff could be less than half that number. Plus, all polls released since March 3rd have shown Paxton leading the head-to-head matchup by anywhere from 3 to 16 points.
Cornyn continues to raise money at a record pace. His campaign has raised $9 million so far in 2026, spent nearly $3 million since the March 3rd primary and still has hefty war chest of nearly $8 million cash on hand. The campaign is committed to continued ad blitzes up until the runoff date. Paxton on the other hand raised $2 million for the first quarter of 2026 and has $3.2 million cash on hand and is relying on conservative influencers and grassroots organizations to message voters and encourage turnout. The race has become a defining battle of the more establishment and well-funded arm of the party versus the grassroots conservatives.
The Cornyn camp released a digital ad this week attacking Paxton for not denouncing the endorsement of Tucker Carlson, the conservative talk show host that has been criticized by President Trump for their differing stances on Israel and the Iran War. Cornyn reiterates in the ad that he supports Trump’s claim that the conflict is designed to keep America safe, and calls on Paxton to distance himself from Carlson, who Cornyn refers to as “Turncoat Tucker”. The ads have started running on social media platforms.
Talarico Raises $27 Million in 1st Quarter
Democratic US Senate nominee James Talarico reported raising $27 million in the first quarter of 2026. This is the largest haul for any Senate candidate in any state during the first quarter of an election year. Talarico more than doubled the amount of money raised by current Democratic Senate incumbent Jon Ossoff of Georgia and former Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown who lost his seat in 2024 and is challenging Republican incumbent Jon Husted this year. This also outpaces the former Democratic nominees in Texas who ultimately lost their challenges to Republican incumbents. In 2018, Beto O’Rourke brought in $6.7 million in the first quarter and in 2024, Colin Allred raised $9.5 million in the first quarter. The $27 million raised brings Talarico’s total fundraising to over $40 million since he got in the race last September.
Talarico also announced this week that one of his main priorities if elected to the US Senate would be to end tax breaks for billionaires. The cornerstone of his plan is to end write-offs for the purchase of luxury items and placing restrictions on the use of offshore accounts to avoid federal taxes. Talarico also proposes to close a loophole in federal tax laws that allows venture capital managers to treat earnings as capital gains instead of ordinary income. While not giving an exact figure, Talarico claims these changes would “bring billions of dollars into the federal treasury”.
Statewide Polling
Pastors for Texas Children -- a nonprofit, independent ministry supporting public education opportunities for Texas children – released a poll this week regarding several statewide races. The poll’s initial purpose was to gauge Texans’ interest and approval in the newly created state private school voucher program. The poll also asked respondents about several of the statewide races. The pollsters went to great lengths to model the sample group to align with recent voter turnout in Texas. The poll sampled 503 likely November voters. The respondents were made up of 38% Republicans, 26% Democrats, and 26% independents.
First the original purpose of the poll showed that 50.5% oppose vouchers. The poll also showed an unsettled electorate, with no candidate in any race receiving 50%. The poll showed Gov. Abbott leading Democrat challenger Gina Hinojosa by a 48.3% to 41.6% margin. Lt. Governor Dan Patrick led likely Democratic nominee Vicki Goodwin by a 44% to 37.6% margin.
In the race for US Senate, results were interesting. The poll did not ask about a Cornyn/Paxton head-to-head battle, rather it questioned respondents on a Talarico matchup with each candidate. In the poll, Talarico led Cornyn by a slim 42.9% to 42.7% margin, with 12.7% undecided. Against Paxton, Talarico led by a 46.7% to 39.2% margin, with just over 14% undecided.
Cities Under Scrutiny for ICE Policies
AG Ken Paxton has launched an investigation into the city of Austin’s policy regarding their cooperation – or lack thereof – with US Immigrations and Customs Enforcement. Austin’s policy dictates that ICE warrants do not justify an arrest or prolonged stop. Officers must obtain a supervisor’s approval before contacting ICE to detain an individual. Current Texas law prohibits local restrictions on cooperation with federal immigration agents. The city of Austin claims their policy does not conflict with state law and simply allows officers to clarify with their superiors when contacting ICE is appropriate.
Similar scrutiny is occurring in Houston, where city leaders there have faced a demand from Gov. Abbott to repeal a similar policy or risk losing $100 million in state grant funding. Houston Mayor John Whitmire has urged the Houston City Council to repeal the policy and has called a special meeting of the Council next Wednesday to vote on the repeal.
This is another clash of liberal city governments and Republican state leaders that clearly disagree on collaboration with federal ICE agents. Furthermore, this is setting up another legal test of how far cities and states can be involved and attempt to further their own policies regarding immigration enforcement, a duty that has historically and legally been the sole responsibility of the federal government.
Will Texans Pay More for Power as Data Centers Expand?
As Texas experiences a rapid expansion of large-scale data centers, driven largely by AI, cloud computing, and cryptocurrency operations, state lawmakers are increasingly questioning whether everyday Texans will ultimately shoulder higher electricity. This week, the Texas House State Affairs Committee met to question industry officials, data center developers, and energy companies about how the state’s power system will handle the unprecedented demand. The hearings reflect growing public concern about whether the data center boom could strain the grid and drive up residential power bills.
Texas has now become one of the nation’s top destinations for data center development due to relatively low electricity costs, abundant land, favorable tax incentives, and a deregulated power market. However, these facilities require enormous amounts of electricity, operating 24/7 and consuming power comparable to small cities. Lawmakers have cited projections that electricity demand in ERCOT could nearly double over the next decade due to AI computing facilities, hyperscale cloud campuses, and crypto mining operations. In some cases, a single data center campus can demand 300-500 megawatts or more – enough to power hundreds of thousands of homes.
However, the central question lawmakers and communities are asking: Who will pay? To support new data centers, utilities must build new and extensive infrastructure. If the infrastructure costs are socialized across ratepayers, residential customers will see higher power bills. These costs can run into hundreds of millions, sometimes billions, of dollars per large cluster of projects. If those costs are classified as “system upgrades”, they are typically passed to ratepayers through regulated transmission charges, meaning residential bills will increase gradually over time.
Texas’s grid has faced scrutiny since Winter Storm Uri (2021), and lawmakers are wary of adding massive new demand with ensuring adequate supply reserves. If generation is not able to keep pace, wholesale electricity prices will spike during peak periods, filtering into higher consumer rates. Other analysts warn that persistent tight supply margins will increase long-term power prices statewide. If grid upgrades accelerate significantly, analysts warn consumers will see small but steady increases, potentially 2-5% over several years. It does depend on how much new infrastructure is approved and how costs are allowed. In tight-supply conditions, it will specifically lead to higher average electricity rates, more volatility during summer heat waves, and increased risk of scarcity pricing events.
ERCOT officials have acknowledged that large-load interconnection requests have surged dramatically, with some projects listed in planning pipelines that may never happen, and planning models must adjust for unprecedented demand volatility. Lawmakers have expressed concern that speculative demand projections could force unnecessary infrastructure spending, potentially driving up costs even if these projects don’t move forward. Several policy options are being discussed:
- Requiring large-load customers to bear more infrastructure costs directly
- Creating stricter standards before approving grid interconnections
- Reevaluating tax incentives for data centers
- Adding stronger demand-response requirements
The issue is expected to be a major topic in upcoming legislative sessions. Be on the lookout for a more in-depth update on what you should know about data centers.
Texas Moving Closer to Mandating Bible Readings in Public Schools
The Texas State Board of Education (SBOE) has now given its initial approval to a controversial, first-of-its-kind book list that would require Texas public school students to read selected passages from the Bible as part of classroom instruction. The vote marks a significant development in the state’s long-running debates over religion, curriculum standards, and the role of faith in public education. While the proposal does not establish a standalone Bible class, it instead embeds specific biblical excerpts in state-approved instructional materials. This means that districts that adopt the list would be required to include those readings in core curriculum subjects such as history or literature. Texas is one of the largest textbook markets in the country, so its curriculum decisions often influence publishers nationwide.
Under the plan, certain Bible passages would be included in state-approved instructional materials, and districts that choose state-developed curriculum would be required to teach from those materials. Texas already allows the Bible to be referenced in schools for historical purposes, but this proposal goes further by effectively mandating statewide exposure through required curriculum. Supporters, including several conservative members of the State Board, argue that the readings are intended to “provide historical and literacy context, not religious indoctrination.” Board members are framing the move as correcting what they view as “marginalization of religion” in public education; they have made the claim that the Bible has played a foundational role in American history, so students have to understand the influence it's had on the nation, civil rights movements, and cultural development.
However, the controversy over the proposed required reading curriculum stems from the constitutional concerns raised under the Establishment Clause of the First Amendment. Civil liberties organizations, educators, and interfaith advocates contend that mandating Bible passages will blur the line between church and state, and between education and religious promotion. Public schools are meant to serve students of many faiths (or none), which makes required readings from a single religious text problematic. The state will risk costly legal challenges if (or when), courts determine the policy crosses constitutional boundaries.
The US Constitution’s First Amendment prohibits laws that “respect an establishment of religion”, meaning that the government cannot promote, endorse, or require adherence to a particular religion. This prohibition also applies to states through the Fourteenth Amendment. In previous Supreme Court cases, such as Abington School District v. Schempp (1963), the Court ruled that officially mandating Bible reading and prayer in public schools is unconstitutional. In Engel v. Vitale (1962), the Court also held that public-school sponsored prayer, even a non-denominational one, violates the Clause as well. Even before the Supreme Court formalized these principles, the Edgerton Bible Case (1890) declared that compulsory Bible reading in public school violated state constitutional protections.
The development comes amid a broader national movement in some conservative states to expand the role of the Christian religion into public life. This has included laws requiring the display of the Ten Commandments in classrooms, expanded school voucher programs allowing families to choose religious schools, and efforts to limit how certain historical and social topics are taught. Texas has historically been a battleground state for curriculum debates, especially since the SBOE’s decisions have shaped textbook content nationwide for decades. If finalized, this policy would likely face immediate legal scrutiny and could set a precedent tested by federal courts.
This Texas reading list battle does not exist in isolation– it is part of a broader conservative agenda that has sought to reshape how religion appears in public life and schools. The policy could influence similar debates in other states, especially those with conservative majorities pushing for greater Chrisitan religious visibility in public life. It will certainly draw legal challenges grounded in established Supreme Court precedents in previous cases. Courts will have to examine whether the list endorses or promotes religious context in a way that violated the Establishment Clause. The effort to mandate Bible readings in Texas public schools sits at the crossroads of education policy, religious freedom, and constitutional law.
Texas Gas Price Tracker and TSA update
https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=TX
The current national average gas price for the nation now stands at $4.12/gallon, a slight decline from last week’s average of $4.16/gallon. Compared to a month ago, the average is still up about $0.40/gallon. Diesel has also dropped slightly, now sitting at about $5.61/gallon, with last week’s prices sitting around $5.64/gallon.
Recently, Texas average gasoline prices have slightly declined, offering short-term consumer relief. Averages from today across Texas in major metro hubs can be found below:
Austin/San Marcos: $3.76/gallon
Houston: $3.81/gallon
Dallas: $3.69/gallon
San Antonio: $3.80/gallon
El Paso: $3.97/gallon
Corpus Christi: $3.76/gallon
Beaumont/Port Arthur: $3.85/gallon
The drop reflects easing in global supply pressures and short-term stabilization in crude markets. However, analysts warn that this relief will be short-lived. April 15th marked the final scheduled day of certain foreign oil shipments under existing trade agreements tied to ongoing geopolitical tensions. If these imports halt or are significantly reduced without resolve, crude supply will tighten, future markets will react immediately, and gasoline prices could surge within 24-48 hours. The United States previously released oil from the reserve to cushion price spikes, but the reserve is now significantly lower than pre-2022 levels.
Even if Texas were to produce more oil, international price spikes still affect domestic pricing. Texas consumers could see gasoline prices rise 10-30 cents per gallon initially, higher diesel costs (impacts trucking and supply chains), and increased airline fuel surcharges. Sanctions on Russian oil continue to distort global energy trade flows. Countries are rerouting crude, paying premiums, and engaging in complex shipping arrangements that increase costs. If new sanctions tighten or enforcement intensifies, global supply tightens further.
As for any TSA and airline operations, global tensions are continuing to ripple through and cause performances to be under increasing strain. Airports are functioning, but several stress points are emerging that could impact travelers in the coming weeks. Recent issues regarding TSA operations include overtime strain due to high passenger volume, budget and federal funding uncertainty, temporary staging shortages, and delays in retention pay in periods of funding dispute. Although TSA agents have continued working or returned to work, there is reduced morale, increased sick leave rates, and delays in hiring pipelines.
In high-volume airports, peak wait times have exceeded an hour at certain checkpoints, which is still a significant decrease from a few weeks ago. Texas airports are no longer in crisis mode, but they are experiencing compression during peak periods. Airlines are also especially sensitive to fuel prices, with jet fuel typically accounting for 20-30% of an airline’s operating expenses. Ticket prices have increased modestly, with recent trends indicating that domestic airfare has increased in several markets, airlines are reducing low-fare flights, and summer fares are rising faster than spring travel fares. Analysts expect gradual increases over the next 2-6 weeks if oil markets tighten further.
Congressman Gonzales Resignation and Complications for Special Election
Republican San Antonio Congressman Tony Gonzales resigned on Tuesday after he could no longer withstand the pressure when revelations surfaced he had an affair with an aide that later died by suicide. Subsequent to that, more revelations surfaced of him asking another staffer for nude photos and for sex. Gonzales was challenged by gun rights activist Brandon Herrera in the Republican primary this year, being forced into a runoff. After the proof of an affair was revealed – which Gonzales initially denied – Gonzales dropped out of the runoff and simply said he would not seek reelection. But once the revelations of additional inappropriate behavior surfaced, he had no choice but to resign. This ends a 5-year career in Congress in a district running from San Antonio to El Paso. The district had been trending Republican in recent cycles, but due to its close partisan numbers the Democrats are targeting it this year as a possible flip.
The next question is when – or if – a special election will be called to fill the seat. US House vacancies can only be filled by a special election – not by appointment. A special election must be called on the next uniform election date, unless the Governor declares that an emergency dictates the need for an election on a different date. Either way, there is a required 36-day window between the announcement the election. So, it is too late to call an election for the May 2nd uniform election date, meaning the next available non-emergency uniform election date will be November 3rd.
Several issues complicate the timing. First, with the resignation of Eric Swalwell in California, Gov. Gavin Newsome has already called a special election for August 18th. That district will almost assuredly elect another Democrat. That will put pressure on Abbott to call a special election before November 3rd to fill the seat in Texas with a Republican due to the slim Republican majority in Congress. The longer the District 23 is open, the longer the slim Republican majority is without a vote in Congress. But the electability of Republican Brandon Herrera is in question due to his extreme views on some issues and the recent track record of Democrats in special elections.
Democrats are confident and are calling for a special election to be called now. No word yet from Gov. Abbott on his decision.
Political Notes
Republican US Senator Ted Cruz seems to be gearing up for another Presidential run in 2028. He is heading to Iowa to keynote the Faith and Freedom Coalition annual spring kickoff. This is a gathering of evangelical and conservative activists that has become a regular stop for Presidential hopefuls over the years. Cruz last ran for President in 2016, losing to Trump. He did not challenge Trump in 2020 and chose to seek reelection to the US Senate in 2024 instead of running for President. The Iowa Caucus is historically the first stop in the primary schedule and is expected to be held in January of 2028.
The National Rifle Association is holding its annual meeting in Houston this week, but President Trump will not be in attendance. Until last year, Trump had attended every NRA convention since 2015. Scandal has rocked the organization in recent years. In 2024, the organization’s longtime leader Wayne LaPierre resigned in response to allegations of misuse of over $11 million in association funds and approving vendor contracts totaling $135 million in exchange for free vacations and access to luxury yachts. It is unclear if this scandal has played into the President’s decision not to attend the convention. Last year, Trump did send a video message to the attendees at the convention in Atlanta saying, “with me in the White House, your sacred rights will not be infringed”. The NRA has not announced whether the President will do the same this year.
What’s Next??
On Monday, the House and Senate General Investigating Committees will conduct a site visit of Camp Mystic in Hunt, the site of the deadly floods last July.
On Tuesday, the House Energy Resource Committee will meet in Austin to discuss oilfield theft prevention and deadlines for plugging inactive wells.
The Senate Water, Agriculture, and Rural Affairs Committee has scheduled a meeting for May 11th, and the Senate Finance Committee has three scheduled meetings this summer to further discuss interim charges.
A full list of all interim committee hearings can be found here: https://www.legis.state.tx.us
Now the campaigns for the runoffs are in full swing. The runoff election is Tuesday, May 26th.