Here’s a quick recap of what happened over the last week:
What Democratic Voter Participation in the Primaries Means for the General Elections
Democratic voter turnout hit historic levels for the 2026 Texas Primaries, surpassing expectations for a midterm year and outpacing Republican turnout for the first time in a midterm cycle since 2020. According to statewide figures, about 2.3 million voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary, compared to roughly 2.16 million Republican votes. This contributed to nearly 4.5 million total ballots cast across both parties. In 2022, only about 1.07 million Democratic votes were cast in the primaries, indicating a dramatic surge. Overall turnout was nearly 24% of registered voters, well above 2018 and 2022 rates. The primaries featured high-profile, competitive races – especially the Democratic US Senate contest between James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett – which attracted broad interest and high mobilization.
Experts suggest that the engagement is reflecting high levels of enthusiasm around competitive nominations and heightened frustration with national politics, which galvanized Democratic voters to cast ballots in greater numbers than recently seen. The strong turnout provides several potential advantages for Democrats heading into the November general election. A large primary voter base gives campaigns robust data and volunteer resources that can be leveraged in the fall. Surpassing GOP turnout in a midterm primary is rare, and analysts have described it as a potential sign of enthusiasm and organizational energy that could carry over to a competitive general election contest.
While only a small share of primary voters was new to the rolls, the volume and geographic breadth of Democratic participation – including in suburbs and traditional GOP territories – could help tighten margins where races are close. However, experts are cautioning that primary turnout doesn’t always translate directly into general election success, especially in a state with historically higher overall turnout in general elections. In Texas, general election participation is typically about four times that of a primary turnout, meaning that many voters who didn’t participate Tuesday could still decide outcomes in November.
Despite these encouraging numbers for Democrats, there still are reasons that this enthusiasm may not fully carry through the November election. Some of the turnout surge may have been driven by competitive primary races rather than broad long-term commitment, meaning that voters could be less engaged if general contests are less closely contested. Additionally, polling site confusion and procedural changes in some counties may have affected some of the turnout patterns, particularly among groups that might be critical in the general election. Finally, Republicans do still hold structural advantages in many statewide and local districts, which historically favor the GOP in general elections – even though Democrats have outperformed them in the primary.
Overall, the record Democratic turnout in Tuesday’s primaries clearly signals heightened engagement and energy, potentially altering expectations about competitive races in November. It gives Democrats strong organizational momentum and bolsters confidence among party leaders that they can compete more broadly across Texas. It is important to emphasize caution, however, as primary turnout is just an early indicator, not a prediction. The true test will come as campaigns convert this enthusiasm into broader general election participation, independent and rural voter engagement, and turnout in down-ballot races.
Paxton Gives Conditions to Consider Dropping Out of Runoff
President Trump said days before the primary election that he would be endorsing a candidate “soon” in the Republican runoff for US Senate but gave no indication as to which candidate he would be endorsing. Many pundits believe that means the incumbent John Cornyn will get the endorsement due to the fact that his more moderate views translate to a more likely victory over Democratic nominee James Talarico in November, along with his support from Senate Republican leadership. However, by endorsing Cornyn, the President is likely to alienate a substantial portion of his core group of MAGA, hardline supporters in Texas – who overwhelmingly support the more conservative Ken Paxton. So, this breaks down to a choice between loyal supporters and Senate leadership.
Paxton said he would “consider dropping out” of the race if Republican Senate Leadership abolishes the filibuster rule – designed to protect minority party interests – and passes the SAVE America Act. The SAVE America Act is a bill that would require proof of a US citizenship when registering to vote and stricter photo ID requirements at the polls. Paxton framed this as a priority piece of President Trump’s agenda and criticized Cornyn for not supporting the filibuster abolition to ensure its passage. His comments appear intended to draw a contrast with Cornyn on national GOP policy issues rather than signal an actual intention to withdraw. The comments initially irked the President and are not considered a serious overture to actually dropping out of the race.
His remarks are seen by some observers as a strategic move to emphasize his commitment to conservative policy goals – like federal voter ID requirements – which resonates strongly with grassroots Republican voters and key factions within the party. Abolishing this Senate filibuster – a 60-vote threshold in the US Senate – is itself a major procedural change unlikely to change quickly or without broad consensus. It has kept the voter ID legislation from passing, as the SAVE America Act has currently been passed by the US House, but not voted on in the Senate.
For his part, Cornyn has always been a staunch defender of the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster rule – until now. On Wednesday, Cornyn completely changed course and announced he is all of a sudden in favor of abolishing the filibuster rule. A complete change from a position he has defended for decades in the Senate. Paxton immediately pounced on the flip-flop, reminding Cornyn that as late as last October Cornyn refused to vote to abolish the filibuster rule when Trump pressed the Senate on the same legislation. Paxton went further, taking credit for Cornyn’s change in position, saying, “In one week, I’ve made him more conservative than in the past 24 years”. Many pundits have stated the obvious conclusion that Cornyn is simply taking this position now in a continuing effort to get the President’s endorsement in the race.
As of now, no endorsement from the President, and the latest move by Paxton is seen by many as a smart political move to first of all show the President he is completely aligned with his position on the SAVE Act and secondly to demonstrate Cornyn’s lack of conviction on the party’s more conservative priorities.
Polling Shows Paxton Leading Cornyn, Talarico leading both Republicans
Texas Public Opinion Research conducted a poll over the weekend that showed Paxton leading Cornyn by 8 points – 49% to 41% – among likely Republican primary voters. However, this lead shrinks to just one point – 44% to 43% – if President Trump endorsed Cornyn. On the other hand, if Trump endorsed Paxton, his lead grows to an insurmountable 58% to 32%. One other interesting tidbit from the poll shows those who voted for Wesley Hunt in the first round of voting will now vote for Paxton by a 48% to 31% margin.
As far as who is more electable in November, the argument from Cornyn and his supporters is contradicted by another poll done for this race. According to a poll released on Monday by Public Policy Polling, Democratic nominee James Talarico leads both Cornyn and Paxton in a hypothetical matchup, albeit by a small margin, and within the margin of error. PPP polling shows Talarico leading Cornyn by 1 point and Paxton by 2 points. The accompanying memo to this poll attributes the similar margin to the more partisan primary voters who will not support Cornyn under any circumstances. The poll shows that 25% of Trump voters will not support Cornyn if he were to become the nominee.
All in all, it seems that a Trump endorsement of Cornyn will do little to change the minds of primary voters – with Cornyn still unable to reach the 50% threshold – overall, and could even harm the Republican chances of winning the race in November should the more moderate Cornyn become the nominee.
Abbott Proposes Elimination of School Property Taxes
Governor Greg Abbott has proposed a sweeping property tax overhaul – centered on eliminating school district property taxes for homeowners – a central plank of his 2026 reelection campaign & broader tax reform agenda. The proposal would fundamentally restructure how education is funded in Texas and reshape local tax authority. Abbott argues that skyrocketing property tax bills have burdened Texas homeowners, and he wants the state to assume responsibility for funding public education so that local school property taxes disappear for the homeowner.
He has outlined a five-point property tax reform plan aimed at reducing the property tax burden and creating a pathway toward eliminating school taxes altogether:
- Local Spending Limits – Local governments would be required to cap spending growth at the rate of population growth + inflation (up to 3.5%), limiting the pressure to raise property taxes locally.
- Statewide Voter Approval for Tax Increases – Under the plan, all local property tax increases would need approval from ⅔ of local voters before taking effect.
- Rollback Elections – Residents could petition to trigger elections to roll back property tax rates if 15% of registered voters sign a petition, giving homeowners more direct control over tax increases.
- Appraisal Reform – Cap annual property value increases at 3% and requires appraisals only once every 5 years. Currently, homestead values can rise by up to 10% annually.
- Elimination of School Property Taxes – Eliminate school district property taxes for Texas homeowners and transfer the responsibility of school funding to the state. This portion of Abbott’s proposal would require an amendment to the state constitution, which requires 100 votes in the 150-member House. With only 88 Republicans in the House, Abbott’s proposal would need the support of at least 12 Democrats for approval.
He has framed this proposal as a historic shift that would provide long-term tax relief and protect Texans from ever-rising property tax bills, particularly in growing suburban areas. He argues that with Texas’ strong economy – robust sales tax revenue, fees, and a large budget surplus – the state can backfill lost local tax revenue without harming school funding or services. He has noted “Texans shouldn’t pay local property taxes for schools – the state should pay for public education.” Supporters say this would significantly help homeowners as the school tax portion represents the largest share of local property taxes. Lt. Governor Dan Patrick is enthusiastic about long-term relief but has signaled caution around a full elimination without clear replacement revenue.
Abbott has made property tax reform a defining issue of his 2026 reelection bid, seeking to leverage widespread voter frustration over rising property taxes. Some conservative groups like the Texas Public Policy Foundation and Americans for Prosperity, have embraced parts of his plan as a bold step toward tax affordability. Other divisions of the GOP have emphasized more incremental approaches over outright elimination of school taxes. His proposal is certainly popular among anti-tax constituencies, but tax policy experts across the spectrum have raised concerns about the feasibility and long-term fiscal impacts.
Critics do warn that Texas relies heavily on property taxes for public education funding; eliminating them without a structured, reliable revenue replacement could create budget shortfalls when state revenue shrinks. Some analysts are making comparisons to California’s Prop 13, which has stabilized property taxes but has reduced funding and increased disparities within school financing. Replacing property taxes with greater reliance on other sources could shift the tax burden in ways that may disproportionately affect lower-income households.
Hemp Businesses in Texas are Facing Enforcement Pressure
Over the past two years, many Texas hemp farms, processors, and retail operators have reported a sharp increase in law enforcement inspections and raids – with more than 15 documented statewide. The actions have heightened fear and uncertainty among hemp entrepreneurs, operators, and supply chain partners. The concern mainly stems from a very complex legal landscape, in which hemp (federally defined as cannabis with less than 0.3% THC) is legal under both federal and Texas law, but enforcement activity often treats suspected violations as criminal. This has resulted in seizure of product, equipment, and even arrests in some cases.
Operators are saying this enforcement activism is inconsistent, unpredictable, and damaging to legitimate businesses that are compliant with reporting, testing, and licensing requirements. This is contributing to what some industry stakeholders describe as a “de facto crack-down” on legal hemp commerce. The 2018 federal Farm Bill legalized hemp nationwide, defining it as cannabis with less than 0.3% THC. The Texas Legislature subsequently passed statutes and rules governing hemp cultivation, processing, and sales, including permitting requirements and testing protocols. Texas law currently allows licensed hemp production and authorized sales of hemp derivatives – including CBD products, isolates, and topical formulations – under regulatory oversight.
However, enforcement has been complicated because of the following:
- Law enforcement agencies often lack clear on-site testing tools to distinguish hemp from marijuana reliably
- Some products that appear compliant may actually test above the 0.3% THC threshold post-harvest or in processed form, which leads to legal ambiguity
- Regulations around retail distribution, labeling, and transport are still evolving, creating enforcement discretion/confusion among businesses
These have resulted in agencies (including DPS & local police) treating suspected non-compliant products as criminal, even though businesses claim that they are operating in good faith.
According to a series of industry reports and business accounts, more than 15 raids or law enforcement seizures have occurred in the last two years across Texas. In many cases, the officers have taken product and confiscated inventory – even arresting business owners or employees on suspicion alone of possessing illegal THC products. Operators are expressing their frustrations, noting that some of these raids are occurring without probable cause, or without industry insiders present to demonstrate their compliance with the law. Stakeholders note that these actions are eroding business confidence and deterring investment in what is otherwise a legally authorized industry. How the state responds – either by clarifying rules or adjusting enforcement practices – could determine whether Texas’s hemp sector continues to grow or contracts under regulatory risk.
Texas Republicans Announce ‘Sharia Free Texas’ Caucus
A group of Republican members of the Texas House of Representatives has announced the new formation of the “Sharia Free Texas Caucus”, a legislative coalition that says it will focus on what its members describe as concerns about Sharia law and its perceived influence in Texas. The announcement came earlier this week, shortly after the similar Sharia Free America Caucus was launched in the US House of Representatives. Supporters are framing the group’s purpose around protecting the Texas and American legal system from what they describe as an “alarming rise” of Sharia law. They argue that it is incompatible with the US and Texas Constitutions, connecting the concerns with broader discussions about immigration, cultural identity, and legal influence.
The caucus was initiated by State Rep. Brent Money and includes a large group of Republican lawmakers from across the state. These members have publicly stated they are joining the caucus to address issues they associate with Islamic legal influence – though the exact legislative agenda has not been fully formalized at this stage. They have blamed Democratic border policies for a “surge of Muslim immigration in Texas”. The Texas Caucus draws obvious inspiration from the federal Sharia Free America Caucus, formed by Texas Congressmen Chip Roy & Keith Self. It has sought to push anti-Sharia rhetoric and related legislative proposals at the national level. Proponents say the caucus will do the following:
- Monitor and counter the influence of foreign legal systems (specifically Islamic law) in Texas legal and civic life
- Affirm that the US and Texas Constitutions are the supreme law of the land & cannot be overridden by any religious legal system
- Focus on public safety, immigration enforcement, and reinforcing the “Biblical foundations of government”
Civil rights and Muslim advocacy groups have sharply criticized this caucus, such as the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), condemning it as fear-mongering and discriminatory. Other affiliates note that Republican leaders are intentionally singling-out one religion and relying on misinformation. CAIR also notes that Sharia law in practice refers to only personal religious guidance – just as other faiths’ traditions inform daily life – and that it would not threaten to replace US or Texas law (protected by constitutional supremacy). Critics are also arguing that these efforts are an echo of historical anti-Islam movements and can fuel further religious discrimination rather than address actual legal or security concerns. Beyond these groups, legal analysts emphasize that the Constitutions already prevent any religious legal system from overriding American law, making explicitly religion-targeted legislation vulnerable to constitutional challenges.
If the caucus pushes for specific bills, those proposals could raise complex questions about religious freedom, discrimination, and constitutional limits on government action toward a specific faith community. Targeted efforts tied to one religion often face heightened scrutiny, and a potential undermining of the First Amendment’s protections on freedom of religion and equal protection. The caucus underscores how debates around identity politics and cultural influence are being woven into state legislative strategies, potentially affecting voter and community relationships across Texas.
Turnover Coming to the Texas Legislature
The 31-member Texas Senate will have at least 5 new members when the legislature convenes in regular session next January, an unusually high number for the upper chamber. And what’s more, three of the five members not returning hold committee chairmanships that must be replaced. Here is a look at the members not returning, and the impact:
– Robert Nichols (R) – Longtime senator from East Texas who is retiring after years of service. Nichols is the longtime chair of the Senate Transportation Committee and is seen as the chamber’s foremost expert on all transportation and transportation related funding issues. Who will replace him as chair remains an open question. State Rep. Trent Ashby has won the Republican nomination and will assuredly win the seat in the November election. His tenure and respect as a House member will help with the transition for his constituents in east Texas.
– Brian Birdwell (R) – He is in the unique and enviable position of chairing two committees – Natural Resources and Border Affairs. Birdwell is leaving the Senate to become an Assistant Secretary of Defense. He is a former US Army officer and survivor of the September 11th attack on the Pentagon. His departure contributes to Republican turnover in a leadership role that has been influential on border security and veterans’ affairs policy. His successor will be state Rep. David Cook of Mansfield.
– Mayes Middleton (R) – After serving only one term, Middleton did not seek reelection to the Senate, instead seeking the Republican nomination for Texas Attorney General. State Rep. Dennis Paul of Clear Lake will succeed Middleton in the Senate.
– Brandon Creighton (R) – Resigned shortly after the regular session after being appointed as Chancellor of the Texas Tech University System. Creighton chaired the Senate Education Committee, overseeing both public and higher education. Again, the replacement of that chairmanship is an open question. His successor will be Montgomery County DA Brett Ligon, who recently won the Republican nomination for this southeast Texas seat.
Kelly Hancock (R) – Resigned to become Acting Texas Comptroller last summer, prompting a special election earlier this cycle in which Democrat Taylor Rehmet was elected in his position. Republicans will not give up that seat easily and will invest heavily in Republican nominee Leigh Wambsganss in the November election.
The loss of five senators– all Republicans– means a significant shift in institutional knowledge, committee leadership, and continuity in the upper chamber. Several chairs and long-serving lawmakers and leaving, creating opportunities for newcomers but also uncertainty around seniority-driven power and procedural acumen.
House Members Not Returning
14 Republicans and 7 Democrats chose not to seek reelection in 2026, creating a freshman class of at least 21 new members for the next regular session. This turnover in the House represents a huge infusion of new members (at least 26 legislators total between both chambers), greatly increasing turnover compared to recent sessions and boosting institutional uncertainty. Many departing House members are running for higher office, which reshapes legislative ambitions and opens strategic opportunities for both parties. Several leadership figures and experienced lawmakers are leaving, removing continuity in committee leadership, policy expertise, and legislative relationships built over multiple sessions.
With five Senate seats and 21 House seats open, the Legislature faces a large generational and experience shift. New members often need time to learn parliamentary rules, bill drafting, and committee procedures – these can slow negotiations and affect policy outcomes. Departures often affect leadership on key issues like border security, elections, education, and finance. New members, potentially with different ideological priorities, could shift caucus dynamics and influence the agenda. Open seats are typically more competitive than incumbent races, which provides opportunities for both parties to flip districts and influence the chamber majorities. Republicans currently retain control of both chambers heading into the 90th Legislature, but with significant churn, internal caucus coalitions may become more important in shaping policy than strict partisan margins.
War with Iran & DHS Shutdown Affecting Daily Life
While the fighting is happening overseas, the economic and logistical consequences are being felt at home. Two of the most visible impacts right now are rising gas prices and long airport security lines, each driven by different but overlapping forces.
Rising Gas Prices
Iran sits along the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping lane through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply moves. Conflict has now threatened that passage, and global oil markets reacted immediately. Americans are now seeing national gas prices jump noticeably within a short period of time, and regions that rely heavily on imported crude are seeing even sharper increases. Airlines are facing higher jet fuel costs as well, meaning more expensive airfare.
The US national average for regular gasoline has risen about $0.50 per gallon, sitting at approximately $2.41-$3.50 per gallon. This marks the most rapid single-week increase in years. In California, prices are significantly higher, averaging around $5.20 per gallon, due to local taxes and refining constraints. Colorado Springs saw a jump of about $1.22 per gallon compared to prices in December. Texas is now seeing a statewide average of $3.26 per gallon, and on March 3rd, the national average rose by 11 cents in a single day.
As of March 12th, major cities are seeing a gradual increase. In Dallas, gas is now hitting roughly $3.47/gallon, Houston is standing at $3.10/gallon, Austin at $3.20/gallon, Fort Worth at $3.40/gallon, and San Antonio seeing prices standing around $3.18/gallon. The National average is now above $3/gallon in every US state, a level not seen since 2023.
Fuel prices affect more than just commuting. Travel will become more expensive, with rising prices for commuting and road travel. We could see higher costs for goods and services as fuel inputs rise, with an added pressure on household budgets. If the conflict continues or expands, sustained high oil prices could push inflation higher again.
Long TSA Lines/Airport Delays
Separate from the war, the Department of Homeland Security is currently facing funding disruptions due to a political impasse in Congress. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) falls under the DHS. Due to this funding lapse and partial shutdown, TSA staff shortages have caused wait times of up to 3-4 hours at several major US airports. Houston Hobby Airport reported lines reaching 3.5 hours, and other hubs like New Orleans International and Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta are also seeing multiple hour waits.
Approximately 50,000 TSA screeners are now working without pay due to the DHS shutdown, causing the rising absenteeism and slower checkpoints. Long lines have spilled into airport concourses and even outdoors, causing many missed flights and rescheduling headaches during peak spring break travel. This means that travelers need to adjust their timing just to get through security, resulting in increased stress for families and business travelers. The uncertainty is adding stress and inconvenience to flights that were previously more predictable.
Political Notes
A very small percentage of the 4.5 million that voted in this year’s primary election will return for the runoff election on May 26th. Even though there will be several statewide races and numerous Congressional and state House races to be decided, we could see fewer than 2 million people vote between the two primaries. In that case, the more extreme or hardline candidate – such as Ken Paxton – will have the advantage due to the fact that it is generally the most partisan of voters that return to the polls for the runoff.
In addition to the Republican US Senate race, the Republicans will also decide the nominee for Attorney General between Congressman Chip Roy and state Senator Mayes Middleton. The Democrats will choose between state Senator Nathan Johnson and former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski for their AG nominee. In addition, the Democrats will choose their nominee for Lt. Governor between State Rep. Vicki Goodwin and labor union leader Marcos Velez.
The Republican Congressional runoffs are highlighted by the race for CD 9, which pits state Rep. Briscoe Cain against Trump endorsed Alexandra del Moral Mealer in a newly drawn district covering southeast Harris County. Also in the Houston area, voters in CD 18 will choose between incumbent Christian Menefee and Congressman Al Green, who switched districts to run in 18 after his former district was drawn to elect a Republican. Democrats also will choose a successor to Jasmine Crockett in a Dallas area district between former Congressman Colin Allred and Congresswoman Julie Johnson who also switched districts due to changes made during redistricting.
An interesting situation has arisen in Texas House District 19 where incumbent state Rep. Ellen Troxclair of Marble Falls is unsure who her Democratic opponent will be in November. The leading vote getter – Kelly Hall of Round Rock – thought he had dropped out of the race and did zero campaigning for the seat since he instead decided to run for Mayor of Round Rock in a May election. But in the end, the primary voters chose him over Javi Andrade – who was the endorsed candidate of many local Democratic precinct chairs in the district. The Democratic Party is now trying to get Hall declared ineligible – since he is running for another office – and declare Andrade the winner. But it’s not that easy. Texas law does not allow a nominee to be replaced on the ballot except for very specific circumstances such as death, catastrophic illness, or if the nominee moves out of the district. So, the party is now trying to have Hall declared ineligible – something he will not contest – so they can have Andrade declared the nominee. But in the end, it is likely not to matter. House District 19 covers a sliver of Round Rock, but also moves west to cover solidly Republican areas including Marble Falls, Fredericksburg, Johnson City and Boerne.
What’s Next??
Now the campaigns for the runoffs begin. The runoff election is Tuesday, May 26th.
Members will eagerly await the issuance of the interim charges for each committee, followed by an aggressive schedule of hearings throughout the spring and summer.