Here’s a quick recap of what happened over the last week:
Primary Election Turnout Breaks Records
Approximately 4.5 million of the 18.7 million registered voters in Texas cast a ballot in this year’s primary election. That translates to about 24% of registered voters going to the polls. According to the Secretary of State, the Democrats slightly outvoted the Republicans in this year’s primary. The Democrats turned out roughly 2.3 million voters compared to 2.2 million for the Republicans.
Turnout this year was higher in numbers and in percentages compared to the last two mid-term and statewide elections. In 2022, 17.6% turned out and in 2018, 17% went to the polls. In both of those years, Republicans far outpaced Democrats in the primary election. Democrats turned out 12.4% of their registered voters compared to 11.6% for the Republicans. By comparison, in 2022, Democrats only turned out 6.3% of their registered voters during the primary. The doubling of participation among Democrats can be attributed to backlash against President Trump and was also fueled by the high-profile US Senate primary.
Texas Primary Race Results
The 2026 Texas Primary was shaped by several high-profile statewide contests and reflected continued factional divides within the Republican Party. For any eligible races, the runoff for the candidates that were not able to garner 50% of the vote for their primary will take place on May 26th.
Statewide
- The marquee race will head to a Republican runoff between John Cornyn (41.9%) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (40.9%), highlighting the divide within the party. Cornyn was able to benefit from over $70 million in spending on his behalf, compared to just under $5 million spent by Paxton. Cornyn emphasized experience and seniority, while Paxton campaigned on confrontation and alignment with national populist priorities. President Donald Trump has recently released a statement that he will be choosing a candidate to endorse, Paxton or Cornyn, and ask the other candidate to drop out of the race.
- On the Democratic side, James Talarico defeated Jasmine Crockett (53%-45.7%), consolidating the nomination after a divisive race. Talarico now pivots to framing the general election as competitive, despite statewide structural advantages for the Republicans. Former Vice President Kamala Harris has now endorsed Talarico hours after his victory, after having endorsed Crockett during the primary.
- Governor Greg Abbott secured the Republican nomination decisively with 81.9%, facing minimal opposition. Democrat Gina Hinojosa won her primary as well. For the general election in November, Abbott’s substantial campaign resources position him strongly.
- Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick similarly dominated his primary with 84.8% percent, while Vikki Goodwin and Marco Velez will advance to a runoff on the Democratic side.
- With Paxton vacating the Attorney General’s office to run for the Senate seat, the GOP race heads to a runoff between Mayes Middleton (39.3%) and Chip Roy (31.6%). Middleton positioned himself strongly within Trump-aligned messaging and using $15 million of his own money to blanket the state with TV advertising. Roy brings Freedom Caucus leadership credentials, along with experience in Congress and in the AG’s office as First Assistant AG under Ken Paxton. On the Democratic side, Nathan Johnson narrowly missed an outright win with 48% of the vote and faces Joe Jaworski (26.8%) in a runoff.
- Former State Senator Don Huffines avoided a runoff with 57.4%, defeating both acting Comptroller Kelly Hancock, and Christi Craddick. The race was notable for the lingering tension between Huffines and Abbott going back to 2022 when Huffines mounted a failed challenge to Abbott, with Trump also issuing a late endorsement of Huffines.
- In a surprise, challenger Nate Sheets defeated Agriculture Commissioner incumbent Sid Miller and gained Abbott’s endorsement– a rare rebuke of a sitting statewide Republican. Trump had endorsed Sid Miller.
- For Railroad Commissioner, the race will head to a runoff between incumbent Jim Wright (32%) and challenger Bo French (31.8%), reflecting an intraparty divide between industry-backed regulatory continuity and hard-right ideological positioning.
The Texas Senate
The Texas Senate will undergo significant turnover due to retirements and appointments, including departures of key committee chairs. At least four new members will join next session, and potentially more, depending on November outcomes. Republicans maintained control, but the chamber’s makeup was altered by a January special election Democratic win in SD 9, creating additional strategic focus for November. Republicans aim to preserve the 20-11 majority from 2025, and even a one-seat shift can meaningfully alter committee assignments, rule thresholds, and legislative strategy under Lt. Gov. Patrick.
In the only truly contested Senate primary, state Rep. Trent Ashby easily defeated Rhonda Ward to win the Republican primary for Texas Senate District 3. The seat was open due to the retirement of longtime Republican state Senator Robert Nichols. Often these seats are very competitive due to no incumbent advantage. Ashby focused on his legislative experience and name recognition in East Texas, while Ward was positioned a conservative activist and former member of the State Republican Executive Committee. Ashby easily won the race by a 62% to 38% margin.
The Texas House
The Texas House saw notable turnover and potential ideological shifts to the right. Three incumbents were defeated outright: Cecil Bell (R) , Stan Kitzman (R) , and Chris Turner (D). One incumbent, Hubert Vo, was forced into a runoff. 39 incumbents faced challengers overall, and along with 21 retirements, the House will welcome at least 24 new members in 2027. Republicans have controlled the house since 2003, with recent margins:
2025: 88-62
2023: 86-64
2021: 82-67
Democrats fielded candidates in all 150 districts, ensuring that no GOP seat will be left uncontested in November.
The ideological composition of the Republican caucus may shift, potentially affecting property tax reform, water infrastructure, immigration policy, and school choice implementation. President Trump and Governor Abbott aligned on supporting pro-school-choice incumbents. However, their split endorsements in certain statewide and congressional races stood in contrast to unified legislative endorsements. Speaker Burrows appears positioned to retain the gavel, providing leadership continuity despite member turnover.
Congress
Texas’ 2026 congressional primaries did not produce statewide upheaval, but several districts delivered meaningful signals heading into November– particularly under newly redrawn mid-decade maps.
State Rep. Steve Toth defeated four-term incumbent Dan Crenshaw for CD 2 in a GOP upset. Crenshaw was the only Texan Republican House member who did not receive President Trump’s endorsement.
- Eric Flores secured the GOP nomination with Trump’s endorsement in a crowded field for CD-34. He will face incumbent Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in November.
- For CD-28, Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar won his primary and will face Republican Tano Tijerina in November– a race to watch as South Texas gradually realigns itself.
- Rep. Tony Gonzales heads to a runoff against Brandon Herrera after controversy skewed his numbers late in the race for CD-23. Democrats view this district as a potential opportunity.
- Newly drawn seats CD-9 & CD-35 saw success for Abbott-backed candidates.
- Colin Allred and Julie Johnson will also advance to the Democratic runoff in this newly drawn district fully within Dallas County (CD-33).
- Rep. Christian Menefee will face longtime Rep. Al Green in the Democratic runoff for CD-18 after Green shifted districts following redistricting.
Looking to November
More on turnout. Primary turnout far exceeded expectations, with 2.5+ million early votes statewide, a new record. There was a large Democratic surge with approximately 1.4 million early Democratic votes, a 119% increase over 2022. This was the first midterm cycle since 2022 where Democrats outpaced Republicans in primary early voting.
Democrats traditionally turn out less reliably in midterm primaries compared to Republicans, so this cycle’s unusual surge suggests a higher level of engagement that could carry into November. If they are able to maintain and build on this momentum, they may improve their prospects in competitive US House districts (Rio Grande Valley & suburban regions), narrow margins in statewide races, and offset structural advantages Republicans hold under current statewide redistricting.
Republican turnout was also overall up compared to past midterm primaries, though not as dramatically. In some areas, they did maintain stronger showings, especially in GOP strongholds; however, Democrats still made gains in turnout share even there. Republicans have historically relied on strong midterm primary turnout to signal base enthusiasm, build infrastructure for the General, and translate that mobilization into November performances. The Democrats’ relative surge suggests that GOP dominance cannot be taken for granted.
3 Dead & 14 Injured In Mass Shooting On West Sixth Street, Austin
You are all aware of the shooting occurred early Sunday morning on Austin’s West 6th street near Buford’s, a popular bar and gathering spot in the downtown entertainment district. Three people, including the suspected shooter, were killed. 14 others were injured and transported to hospitals, with three currently in critical condition. The gunman was identified as 53-year-old Ndiaga Diagne, a naturalized US Citizen originally from Senegal who resided in Pflugerville, Texas.
Witness and law enforcement reports indicate that he drove an SUV past the bar several times before stopping, firing both a pistol and a rifle at people on the patio and along the street. Austin Police officers, who were nearby on East Sixth Street, engaged and fatally shot the suspect during the incident. EMS and officers were able to respond on scene within 57 seconds of the first 911 call. The FBI is now assisting the investigation alongside local and federal partners, including the Department of Homeland Security and ATF. Investigators are exploring the shooting as a potential act of terrorism, citing “indicators” found on the suspect’s person and in his vehicle.
The attack occurred the day after coordinated US and Israeli military strikes on Iran, raising questions during the investigation about a possible connection; however, officials emphasize that final conclusions have not yet been reached. Authorities found items such as a Quran, clothing with Iranian flag imagery, and a sweatshirt reading “Property of Allah,” which has led them to consider possible ideological motives– although no definitive motive has been publicly confirmed. Diagne is originally from Senegal, entering the US in 2000 on a tourist visa, according to the Department of Homeland Security. He became a lawful permanent resident in 2006 through marriage before becoming a naturalized citizen in 2013.
Community members, students, and legislative leaders have expressed shock and sorrow at the attack, with city and state officials offering condolences and support to victims and their families. Austin Mayor Kirk Watson said that the shooting has “brought significant trauma” to the city, also noting “There is no question in my mind that the quick response of the police officers and of our EMS personnel and most professionals made a difference and saved lives.” Texas Governor Greg Abbott has condemned the attack, framing it as a serious threat and pledging strong responses if national or international tensions contribute to domestic threats, The White House has been briefed on the situation, and federal agencies continue to coordinate on the investigation.
The shooting has also quickly become part of a broader and ongoing argument over gun policy in Texas. While investigators continue examining motive and circumstances, the event has intensified existing divisions over firearm laws, public safety, and legislative priorities. Some Democratic lawmakers and gun-reform advocates renewed calls for restrictions on high-capacity firearms and increased funding for community violence prevention programs. Republican leaders have largely emphasized law enforcement response effectiveness and the enforcement of existing laws rather than new restrictions. Critics continue to argue that high-profile shootings in entertainment districts, schools, and public venues demonstrate gaps in prevention tools. Supporters of current laws contend that law-abiding gun owners should not face new restrictions due to criminal acts.
Texas House Republicans Ask Congress to Halt All Immigration After Austin Shooting
In the wake of the deadly shooting in downtown Austin, several Texas House members have turned the tragedy into a call for national immigration policy changes. Seventy-one Republican members of the Texas House of Representatives signed a letter sent Monday to leaders of the US Congress calling for a nationwide “pause on all immigration” until what they describe as “proper vetting protocols being established.” The lawmakers urged federal authorities to do the following:
- Halt all immigration into the United States– including family-based and employment visas
- Freeze H-1B visas, which allow foreign workers in specialty occupations to enter the US
- Fully fund the Department of Homeland Security
- Identify potential terrorists within the country before admitting more immigrants
The letter stated, in part: “More Americans will be killed if Congress continues to treat border security and immigration enforcement as political footballs.”
Their push is rooted in the background of the suspected shooter, who authorities identified as a naturalized US Citizen originally from Senegal. Following the shooting, several GOP officials and candidates linked the incident to immigration policy and alleged vetting failures. Texas Republicans and allied federal lawmakers– including US Representative Chip Roy– have also called for broader suspension of immigration and support for legislation like the PAUSE Act. This would stop new visas and restrict immigration from people associated with perceived threats. Critics say this conflates violent acts with legal immigration.
The call from Texas Republicans reflects broader tensions in federal immigration policy, particularly around the effectiveness of vetting procedures, border security & asylum processing backlogs, the future of work visas, and Homeland Security funding. While the letter does specifically urge immigration restrictions, immigration policy remains a federal jurisdiction, meaning such a pause would have to be enacted by Congress and signed by President Donald Trump. However, the immigration pause proposal has generated sharp political divisions.
Republican leaders argue that the shooting highlights current vulnerabilities in the immigration and vetting systems; noting that national security should take absolute priority. Democrats and gun-reform proponents have focused instead on gun violence and access to firearms as the central issue– arguing that changes to immigration will not prevent similar attacks. Immigrant advocacy groups and civil rights organizations have warned against broad-brush immigration restrictions, noting that it could unfairly target immigrants and not reflect on crime. Federal responses, in addition to state leaders, have also varied. Some national Republicans have echoed these calls for stricter border control, while others stress the need for more targeted security measures instead of wholesale immigration halts.
Governor Abbott Activates Texas Military After US-Iran Conflict
Texas Governor Greg Abbott has now activated members of the Texas Military Department – including units from the Texas Army National Guard, Air National Guard, and State Guard– in response to rising concerns about potential retaliation against the United States following recent US & Israeli military strikes on Iran. The operation has now been coined “Operation Fury Shield”. Abbott’s move comes against the backdrop of heightened global tension after coordinated strikes reportedly killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, drawing strong vows of retaliation from Iranian officials.
Under Operation Fury Shield, the Texas Military Department is conducting the following:
- Heightened patrols at critical infrastructure, such as energy facilities and ports
- Increased border security operations, working alongside the Texas Department of Public Safety and local law enforcement.
- Expanded cybersecurity preparedness to help protect against potential digital attacks.
The operation has been framed as a precautionary defensive posture to deter or respond to possible retaliation, whether from state actors or “lone wolf” threats, following the escalation in the Middle East. Importantly, however, officials have not identified any specific, credible threats against Texas– the announcement is anticipatory rather than reactive to any confirmed danger.
In a public statement, Abbott made clear his rationale: “Texas stands with President Trump… its aggression toward America and the West will no longer be tolerated.” Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, addressed the US on Sunday: “We will deliver such devastating blows that you yourselves will be driven to beg.” He also said that he has directed expanded surveillance and patrols across energy, transportation, and border areas to protect Texans and critical assets from whatever threats may emerge. He is reflecting political solidarity with the federal response and a commitment to use state resources to guard against any domestic fallout from international military actions.
It is relatively rare for a state to activate its military forces in connection with foreign policy developments, because national defense is constitutionally a federal responsibility. However, state governors can direct National Guard troops – when not federalized – to support homeland security missions and infrastructure protection. His directive reflects a heightened alert status across at least a portion of the border, cyberspace, and key economic infrastructure in Texas, which is among the largest and most economically critical states in the US. The move aligns with the federal government’s aggressive stance toward Iran, particularly following the Trump administration’s opening of military operations in the region.
Oil Prices Surge After Start of War with Iran– Affecting Houston
Since the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran escalated with air strikes beginning on February 28th, global oil markets have since reacted sharply. Iran has since threatened to close or attack ships in the Strait, causing panic with trading companies, insurers, and producers. Analysts, including financial firms like Goldman Sachs, warn that prices could climb even higher. Predictions are looking toward $100 a barrel or more if disruptions persist for several weeks and supplies through Hormuz remain constrained. The Strait of Hormuz is a linchpin of global energy trade. When tensions disrupt tanker traffic, oil/product shipment volumes shrink, shipping risk premiums increase, and markets rapidly price in potential future shortages. Roughly 20% (18-20 million barrels per day) of the world’s crude and liquefied natural gas moves through that waterway, so any threat to blocked shipping – just the fear alone – is enough to make markets bid up prices.
Brent crude prices have climbed above about $80-85 per barrel, hitting the highest price levels since mid-2024. The US West Texas Intermediate crude also moved higher to the mid-$70s range, representing multi-percent gains over early March trading due to fears of supply disruption. Houston – as the largest oil and gas industry hub in the United States – feels both the market and local economic effects. Higher oil prices generally translate to increased revenue for producers and refiners, encourage more drilling activity, potential hiring growth, and stronger profitability for energy firms in the region. Houston firms could see near-term demand for drilling rigs and services rise if prices remain elevated long enough.
However, rising crude also flows through to gasoline and diesel prices, meaning there is consumer pain at the pump. Prices have begun to climb already, rising about 10-11 cents within the recent days amid the conflict. Analysts and energy experts warn that these increases could persist or accelerate if the war continues and causes prolonged supply disruption. This means that consumers across Texas (like you and me) – including in Houston – may see higher pump prices in the coming days and weeks, especially if crude prices consistently stay elevated. This surge in oil prices isn’t occurring in isolation; it is affecting broader financial markets and inflation expectations.
Energy price increases are feeding into inflation concerns and complicating the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions; this potentially delays interest rate cuts because higher energy costs can sustain inflation above targets. US Stocks and global markets have experienced volatility as traders factor geopolitical risk and commodity price inflation into valuations. If the conflict continues to drag on for weeks or months, economists are warning that the price shock could even spill into transportation, shipping, food prices, and industrial costs due to higher energy inputs.
Overall, the war with Iran has triggered a significant jump in oil prices, with Brent crude reaching levels not seen in nearly two years. While this does benefit Houston’s energy industry in terms of higher revenues and drilling incentives, it means higher gasoline and energy costs for consumers, as well as heightened inflation risk. If these geopolitical tensions remain unsolved, energy prices will continue to rise, with broader implications for both Texas and nationally.
Political Notes
Republican nominee for Agriculture Nate Sheets – who defeated incumbent Sid Miller – has vowed to fire all department employees who are “pro-Sid” and “clean house”. Sheets must first defeat Democratic nominee Clayton Tucker – a likely outcome. Sheets is mainly referring to controversial department employee Todd Smith, whom Miller hired last year, three months after a guilty plea for accepting bribes while an employee of the Department of Agriculture in exchange for issuance of state hemp licenses. Smith’s hiring led to an exodus of department employees and raised questions among other state leaders – including Gov Abbott who endorsed Sheets – about Miller’s ethical standards. Sheets was able to defeat Miller through not only Abbott’s support, but also the support of the state’s agriculture industry and suburban area voters that overwhelmingly supported Sheets.
Embattled Republican Congressman Tony Gonzales has dropped his bid for reelection. A day after he was forced into a runoff, he finally admitted that he had an affair with a former staffer who later died by suicide. US House Speaker Mike Johnson asked Gonzales to suspend his campaign for reelection. Johnson said in a statement that he encouraged Gonzales to address this situation with his constituents and colleagues, and in the meantime “we have asked him to withdraw from his race for reelection”. Gonzales finally relented to the mounting pressure late Thursday night. Gun rights activist Brandon Hererra will be the Republican nominee and will face Democrat Katy Padilla Stout in November. Gonzales will remain in office and serve out the remainder of his term that ends in December.
What’s Next??
Now the campaigns for the runoffs begin. The runoff election is Tuesday, May 26th.
Now, members will eagerly await the issuance of the interim charges for each committee, followed by an aggressive schedule of hearings throughout the spring and summer.