Here’s a quick recap of what happened over the last week:

Cornyn/Paxton Update

With the runoff election just 18 days away – and early voting starting Monday, May 18^th and running until Friday, May 22^nd – there is lots of activity surrounding this most high-profile contest in the runoff. 

Another week, another poll. And this one also – as all others have – continues to show challenger Ken Paxton with a lead over the incumbent John Cornyn. A new poll released this week by the University of Houston shows Paxton with a 48% to 45% lead over Cornyn, with 7% undecided. The poll was conducted last week among 1200 likely Republican runoff voters. Paxton’s lead continues despite a $100 million advantage in spending on advertising by the Cornyn campaign. 

The Paxton campaign is getting more aggressive in the final weeks of the campaign, releasing an ad calling Cornyn “pro-amnesty”. The ad – first released on digital platforms and now running on TV in Dallas and Houston – shows video clips of Cornyn calling for amnesty for the country’s estimated 12 million individuals that are undocumented. The ad also features video where Cornyn was critical of President Trump’s plans for the border wall, saying the project is “simply not feasible”. In response, Cornyn said the comments were made in support of a deal Trump was attempting to make with the Democrats on immigration issues. No specifics were given on what or when the supposed deal was in the works. 

Paxton has also criticized Cornyn during recent campaign stops for Cornyn’s inaction on the rising national debt. At an event in San Antonio over the weekend, Paxton drew attention to the national debt – that has now reached $36 trillion – and said “Cornyn has overseen the whole thing”. Paxton reminded supporters that the debt was $6.2 trillion when Cornyn first took office in 2002, and it is now six times that amount. 

Expect the personal insults and attacks to grow as election day draws near.

Texas Leads the US in Immigration Detention as Border Crossings Decline

Texas has long been the focal point of national immigration enforcement debates due to its 1,200-mile-long border with Mexico. Over the past several years, migrant encounters at the southern border reached record highs, prompting aggressive state and federal responses. Under President Trump’s renewed enforcement posture including expanded interior enforcement, expedited removals, and pressure on Mexico to tighten crossings, migrant encounters have significantly declined compared to levels seen in 2023-2024. Despite the drop in border crossings, Texas continues to lead the nation in immigration detention capacity and detainee population. 

Even as reported migrant encounters along the Texas-Mexico border have fallen sharply, Texas hosts more immigration detention facilities than any other state. Texas currently houses the largest share of US Immigration and Customs Enforcement detainees, contains dozens of detention facilities, and serves as a central processing hub for federal enforcement. Detention levels remain high due to backlogged asylum cases, expanded enforcement operations, transfers from other states, and federal contracts with private prison operators concentrated in Texas. In short, border apprehensions may be down, but detention infrastructure remains heavily utilized. 

Several factors have contributed to the recent decline in border crossings. Expanded expedited removal procedures and tighter asylum eligibility rules have reduced successful entry attempts. Agreements with Mexico and Central American governments have also increased enforcement south of the border, and increased ICE activity within US cities has raised perceived risk for migrants. Trump’s crackdown rhetoric and enforcement announcements appear to have had deterrent effects, according to some analysts. However, immigration flows still remain volatile and historically cyclical. 

Texas is still leading in detention due to building out detention capacity aggressively during previous immigration surges, and major detention contractors operate extensively in Texas due to favorable regulatory and contracting environments. Border-adjacent processing centers feed directly into Texas facilities, and Texas has been among the most cooperative states in working with federal immigration authorities. Even with fewer border crossings, existing detainees remain in custody while awaiting hearings or removal. 

For Texas Republicans, the decline in crossings supports claims that tougher enforcement works, continued detention reinforces a hardline enforcement narrative, and the state remains positioned as a national immigration policy leader. For Democrats, critics argue that prolonged detention can raise humanitarian concerns, and advocates call for detention reform, alternatives, and expanded legal pathways. There are ongoing concerns about detention conditions and oversight, as prolonged detention periods are increasing due to court backlogs. Families and asylum seekers are experiencing longer detentions than necessary, and conditions in some facilities have been subject to past scrutiny. 

Texas’s detention dominance may shape how other states approach immigration enforcement infrastructure. If crossings remain low, federal detention budgets could be reevaluated, contract consolidation may occur, and other states may expand or reduce capacity depending on enforcement posture. If crossings rise again, Texas’s detention system is already positioned to absorb increased volume. The state’s role in immigration detention will likely remain central to national immigration policy debates heading into the next election cycle. 

Texas Officials Reject Corpus Christi Desalination Project Amid the City’s Looming Water Crisis

Corpus Christi is facing one of the most severe municipal water shortages in Texas. The coastal city relies primarily on surface water from the Lake Corpus Christi and Choke Canyon reservoirs, both of which have experienced sustained declines due to prolonged drought conditions and increasing industrial demand. In recent years, reservoir levels have dropped to critically low thresholds, with the city projected to run completely out of water by early 2027. The city has also entered multiple stages of water restrictions while industrial users have significantly increased water demand. Climate models project even worsening drought frequency across the South Texas region. 

Against this backdrop, desalination has been viewed as one of the few viable long-term supply solutions for Corpus and the surrounding areas facing water shortages. Earlier this year, Governor Greg Abbott publicly criticized Corpus Christi leaders for backing out of an earlier desalination plant proposal, arguing that inaction and local indecision was exacerbating the region’s water crisis. However, just months later when a new, larger desalination proposal was presented for state financial assistance, Texas officials declined to provide funding support. The rejected proposal would have constructed a larger-scale desalination facility along the Corpus Christi ship channel, treating seawater or brackish water for municipal and industrial use. 

This plant would have significantly expanded the region’s water supply capacity and provided long-term drought resilience for the Coastal bend. Despite the necessary urgency of the water shortage, the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) declined to advance state financing for the project at this stage. The severity of Corpus Christi’s water situation needs immediate attention. The region’s primary reservoirs have hovered at levels that trigger Stage 3 water restrictions, including limits on outdoor watering, restrictions on commercial water users, and reduced industrial allocations. Officials have warned that without additional rainfall or new supply infrastructure, Corpus faces catastrophe. 

While the full details are still emerging as to why the state declined funding despite previous criticism directed towards the city for failing to fix the issue, possible reasons can be assumed. The first, and largest concern, would be cost. Desalination facilities are extremely expensive, often costing hundreds of millions of dollars. Questions about long-term financial sustainability arise, as well as concerns over brine disposal and environmental permitting. There could be a rising preference for alternative water supply strategies as well. Nonetheless, the state’s refusal to finance another project complicates the narrative and raises questions about coordination between local and state authorities. 

In perhaps the most pivotal development yet, the Corpus Christi City Council voted 6-2 to begin preliminary negotiations with a Houston-based private company to build a new desalination plant. Key points of this plan include a proposed facility that could produce up to 150 million gallons of potable water per day, using a natural gas-powered desalination technology that can deliver water at rates roughly 30% lower than the previously shelved city-built Inner Harbor project. The privately financed facility would be funded by AXE H2O, proposing to finance, build, and operate the plant. There would be no direct public debt or infrastructure bonds for local taxpayers, organized under a long-term purchase agreement. The state’s refusal to finance a major new desalination plant has now pushed the city toward private sector solutions as it races to secure a reliable water supply. 

Texas Supreme Court Greenlights Delta-8 THC Ban 

Texas’s hemp industry has operated in a legal gray area since the Legislature legalized hemp production in 2019 following the federal Farm Bill. While marijuana remains illegal in Texas, hemp (cannabis containing less than 0.3% Delta-9 THC), is legal. However, that legalization opened the door to alternative THC products derived from hemp, including Delta-8 THC, Delta-10 THC, and THC-A. Delta-8, in particular, surged in popularity because it produces psychoactive effects similar to marijuana but was derived from legal hemp. Retail shops selling Delta-8 products rapidly expanded across Texas. 

In response, state regulators attempted to classify Delta-8 as a controlled substance, sparking years of litigation between hemp retailers and the state. In its latest ruling, the Texas Supreme Court cleared the way for the state to enforce its ban on Delta-8 THC, siding with state regulators and effectively removing Delta-8 from lawful hemp commerce in Texas. The Court’s decision allows the Department of State Health Services (DSHS) to treat Delta-8 as Schedule 1 controlled substance. It will also allow law enforcement agencies to resume enforcement against Delta-8 sales and criminal penalties to apply to retailers who continue selling it. 

The ruling marks a significant blow to hemp retailers who argued that Delta-8 falls within the federal hemp definition. Delta-8’s legality hinged on technical distinctions: federal law defines hemp based on Delta-9 THC concentration, and that Delta-8 can be chemically derived from CBD extracted from hemp. Retailers argued that because it was derived from legal hemp, it was lawful. However, the state argued that psychoactive synthetic cannabinoids fall outside legislative intent. 

In a separate but related development, a lower court judge ruled that retailers may temporarily continue selling THC-A products, a precursor compound found in raw cannabis. When heated (smoked), THC-A converts into Delta-9 THC. Retailers argue that these products do meet the 0.3% Delta-9 threshold prior to heating, so they do qualify as legal hemp. The lower court’s ruling allows these sales to continue temporarily while litigation proceeds. 

This does create a split regulatory landscape, however, due to Delta-8 being effectively banned, but THC-A being temporarily allowed. This means that the hemp industry is not entirely shut down but does remain legally unstable. State officials have long argued that intoxicating hemp derivatives undermine Texas’s marijuana prohibition framework. Supporters of the ban emphasize protecting minors, ensuring consumer safety, and preventing “synthetic loopholes.” The Attorney General’s office has defended regulatory authority to restrict intoxicating derivatives. 

Retailer and industry advocates argue that the Legislature never explicitly banned Delta-8, state regulators are exceeding their authority, thousands of jobs and millions in tax revenue is at stake, and consumers will simply turn to illicit markets if legal alternatives are removed. Some hemp advocates are now pushing for legislative clarification in the 90th session. 

Texas Gas Price Tracker and TSA update

https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=TX

Gas prices, unfortunately, have risen again and significantly compared to the last two weeks. The current national nominal average is roughly $4.56/gallon for regular unleaded, not far behind the highest US average since mid-2022 ($4.69/gallon). Texas overall is looking at a statewide average of $4.10/gallon for regular unleaded, up substantially from last week’s average of $3.85/gallon. Diesel is sitting at roughly $5.15/gallon, up just 0.01 cent from last week’s average. The highest recorded diesel price still remains $5.37/gallon, hit on April 9th of this year. 

Below are the most recent posted averages for regular unleaded fuel in major cities across Texas. These figures reflect a steady climb in pump prices across Texas metro regions amid ongoing geopolitical disruption. 

Austin-San Marcos: ~$4.15/gal

Houston: ~$4.02/gal

Dallas: ~$4.18/gal

San Antonio: ~$4.13/gal

El Paso: ~$4.11

Corpus Christi: ~$4.15/gal

Beaumont-Port Arthur: ~$3.98/gal

The national average has jumped over $0.30+ in a single week, reflecting broader energy market volatility. Some state leaders, like the Kentucky governor, have enacted short-term gasoline tax cuts to offset prices for consumers. Proposals for a federal gas tax holiday are again emerging in national debate, though such measures face political hurdles and limited immediate impact. 

While the massive DHS funding crisis that previously strained TSA staffing has temporarily eased with stopgap allocations, lingering concerns remain around future payroll funding, which could again impact checkpoint staffing and wait-times if funding gaps reemerge. 

Jet fuel prices have climbed sharply, with US carriers’ fuel costs up 30-56% year-over-year, squeezing margins and pushing carriers to raise ticket prices, baggage fees, and reduce capacity. The combination of airline shake-ups and elevated fuel costs is contributing to broader travel disruption, including flight cancellations and uneven scheduling reliability reported in recent days. 

Spirit Airlines abruptly ceased operations on May 2nd, disrupting service, stranding passengers, and eliminating routes nationwide. The shutdown stems largely from soaring jet fuel costs tied to broader global energy market upheavals, as fuel has nearly doubled from pre-conflict levels. Nearly 17,000 jobs across the US, including about 900 in Texas, were affected due to the sudden closure. Legacy and other carriers are now offering “rescue fares” and assistance for stranded passengers and former employees. Analysts warn that Spirit’s exit – removing one of the nation’s primary ultra-low-cost carriers – will push average airfares even higher, especially on routes where competition has been tightest. Schedule reductions and fuel-driven cuts across major US carriers have already been reported, with tens of thousands of seats trimmed for the summer travel season. 

Historical “Fun Fact” of the Week

The state once used prison labor to build its own government infrastructure. After the Civil War, Texas developed one of the most extensive convict leasing systems in the country, using incarcerated people as a primary labor force to rebuild its economy and infrastructure. Under this system, the state leased prisoners to private companies – railroad builders, plantation owners, and industrial operations – who then assumed control over their labor and living conditions. Oversight was minimal, so there was little incentive to regulate abuse. The arrangement, managed through early precursors to the Texas Department of Criminal Justice, allowed Texas to rapidly expand roads, rail lines, and agricultural production. However, the system became notorious for its brutality, with mortality rates among leased prisoners far exceeding those in traditional prisons. By the early 20th century, public outcry and investigative reporting forced Texas to formally abandon convict leasing, but the state did not move away from prison labor altogether. Instead, it shifted toward a state-run model, where incarcerated individuals continued working directly under government control. Today, incarcerated people still perform a wide range of labor; the legacy of convict leasing continues to shape contemporary work habits for prisoners.

Political Notes

Former Montgomery County District Attorney Brett Ligon defeated Democrat Ron Angeletti in Saturday’s special election for state Senate District 4, based in the Montgomery County area. The seat – running from the Conroe/Woodlands area east to Port Arthur – is solidly red. But Ligon significantly over performed, winning with 75% of the vote, creating a boost for Republican hopefuls after the Democratic upset in a similar special election in north Texas. The special election was to fill the unexpired term of Brandon Creighton, who resigned from the Senate last fall to take the job as chancellor of the Texas Tech University System.

Lt. Governor Dan Patrick announced two major endorsements in key runoff races this week in the Republican primaries. Patrick gave the nod to state Senator Mayes Middleton over Congressman Chip Roy in the GOP runoff for state Attorney General. Patrick also endorsed incumbent Railroad Commissioner Jim Wright over controversial challenger Bo French, the former Tarrant County Republican Party Chair. Patrick and French have clashed before, particularly when French made comments on social media saying, “Jews are as big of a threat to national security as Muslims”. Patrick actually called on French to resign his chairmanship of the Tarrant County GOP and said French’s bigotry does not reflect the values of the Republican Party. 

Republican state Rep. Wes Virdell of Brady – whose district includes Kerrville – has formally asked Gov. Abbott to call a special session to address summer camp safety legislation, saying the bills passed by the legislature in special session last year – in response to the Camp Mystic tragedy – have created too many problems and have requirements that are too burdensome for existing camps. No word from Abbott’s office, but a special session is extremely unlikely. Camp Mystic has withdrawn its application for licensure and will not reopen this summer. 

The latest UH poll referenced in the update on Cornyn and Paxton also shows state Sen. Mayes Middleton leading Congressman Chip Roy by a 9-point margin. Middleton comes from a very wealthy background and spent an estimated $15 million in personal funds in advertising during the primary campaign. For the runoff, Roy is now becoming more aggressive, releasing a series of ads across television and digital platforms. The latest ad features Senator Ted Cruz praising Roy for furthering President Trump’s agenda in Congress. In another ad, Roy criticizes Middleton for supporting a housing development in north Texas that targets residents from Middle Eastern countries as Sharia Law continues to garner more attention in the race. 

What’s Next??

The House Public Education Committee meets on Monday to discuss declining enrollment issues and review the overall status of the public school finance system.

The Senate Water, Agriculture, and Rural Affairs Committee meets Monday to discuss the viability of desalination to address water shortage issues and to review policies to safeguard livestock against the New World Screwworm. 

The House Culture, Recreation, and Tourism Committee meets Tuesday to also discuss strategies regarding the New World Screwworm and to review funding issues related to the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department. 

The House Elections Committee meets on Thursday to discuss issues relating to election audits, ballot privacy, and citizenship and voting. 

A full list of all interim committee hearings can be found here:  https://www.legis.state.tx.us

The runoff election is in 18 days, Tuesday, May 26^th. Early voting begins May 18^th.