Early Voting Underway
Texas added nearly 200,000 people to voter rolls in the last two weeks before the voter registration deadline in October. Texas now has 18.6 million registered voters. Since 2016, Texas has added 3.5 million registered voters.
In 2020, 66.73% of registered Texas voters cast a ballot, which was an increase from the 59.39% that participated in the 2016 Presidential election.
Early voting began on Monday, and the first day set record turnouts in many Texas counties. After the first day, nearly 800,000 Texans had cast a ballot, amounting to a 4.28% turnout. Bexar County set a record for first day turnout with 46,820 votes cast. Travis County also set a record with nearly 50,000 votes cast on the first day. Harris County had over 120,000 votes cast to lead all counties in the number of voters. El Paso County however went the other direction. After record setting turnout in 2020, El Paso saw a 31% drop in the first day of early voting. On Monday, 23,678 cast a ballot compared to 34,118 who voted on the first day in 2020.
As of the 2nd day of early voting, more than 1.8 million Texans had cast a ballot, translating to a roughly 10% turnout through two days. And one note of interest regarding “who” is turning out to vote over the first two days. Political consulting firm Ryan Data and Research – focusing on the data and voting history of those who have already cast a ballot – report that the state’s five largest counties are making up a smaller share of those who have voted early. In the 2012, 2016, and 2020 Presidential races, those 5 counties – with a majority of Democratic voters – comprised 42% of all the votes cast in Texas. So far, those counties account for 38% of all votes that have been cast so far.
Through Wednesday, 2.8 million Texans had cast a ballot, which is about 15% of all registered voters.
Early voting continues through 7PM on Friday, November 1st.
For all information related to early voting, including acceptable forms of ID, early voting locations, and links to your local county elections office, go to: https://www.votetexas.gov
Presidential Polling Numbers
Another poll released on Monday showed former President Trump and Vice-President Harris in a dead heat nationally, and in several swing states. The Washington Post/Schar School poll surveyed 5,016 likely voters in seven key battleground states showed Harris up by two points in Michigan (49-47) and Pennsylvania (49-47), and up by 3 points in Wisconsin (50-47). The poll shows Harris with her biggest lead in Georgia at 51-47. Trump leads in North Carolina (50-47) and Arizona (49-46) with the two tied at 48% in Nevada. All numbers are within the poll’s margin of error. The poll was conducted from September 30th-October 15th and showed the two tied nationally with 48%.
A CNBC poll released Thursday morning showed similar results. Conducted from October 15th-19th among 1,000 registered voters nationwide, the poll showed Trump with a 48%-46% lead nationally over Harris nationwide. While not specifically polling individual state races, the poll sampled voters in battleground states including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Other polls show Trump now leading in most national surveys. A Fox News survey conducted from October 11th-14th showed Trump with a 50-48 lead nationally, and a TIPP Insights poll conducted October 17th-19th showed Trump leading 49-47.
Cruz/Allred Race Update
Republican incumbent Ted Cruz picked up another endorsement from a high-profile Democrat this week when former state Senator Eddie Lucio gave his support to Cruz. Lucio served as a Democrat in the Texas Senate from 1991 to 2022, representing a district in the Rio Grande Valley. Lucio – who announced his endorsement in a press statement – said that “he knows the people and needs of the Valley, and that’s why he is proud to endorse Ted Cruz.” Lucio has also endorsed Republican Adam Hinojosa in a hotly contested state Senate race against Democratic incumbent Morgan LaMantia of Brownsville.
And for Allred, Vice-President Harris is on her way to Houston later today to rally with the Democratic challenger. It marks the first appearance for the two of them together on the campaign trail. Her appearance with Allred signals there is still high interest among the national Democratic party to defeat Ted Cruz. And by her making an appearance so late in the campaign, the Democrats must see some polling numbers that are giving them hope that the race is within reach. It does however beg the question as to why Vice-President Harris would spend time away from the key battleground states during the last four days of the Presidential campaign.
Cruz is still shown to have a slight lead in most polls, but all indications are that the race will be decided by a very slim margin on election day.
State Job Rate Continues Growth
The Texas labor market has achieved a record high participation level in the workforce. According to a report released this week by the Texas Workforce Commission, Texas now has a seasonally adjusted workforce totaling 15,449,900, including 51,500 jobs that were added in the month of September. Overall, Texas added 327,000 jobs from September 2023 to September 2024. Texas added jobs at rate of 2.3%, outpacing the national rate of growth by 0.7%. The state unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%.
Job growth was led by the business and professional sector, which added 15,500 over the last month, followed by 10,400 added in each of the public education and health care sectors, with the construction sector adding 8,100 jobs. Construction jobs in Texas have grown by 5.1% over the last year.
Border News
Former President Trump has called for an additional 10,000 Border Patrol agents to be hired as he continues to make border security and immigration a cornerstone issue in his campaign. Trump made the call during a visit to Arizona last week and has also vowed to complete construction of the border wall if elected.
The state of Texas has followed Trump’s lead on relating to immigration enforcement. Gov. Abbott and the legislature launched Operation Lone Star in 2021 to combat the federal policies related to border enforcement. A total of $11 billion in state dollars have been spent on the program, paying for additional border personnel, more than 100 miles of razor wire, over 40 miles of border wall construction, and a 1,000-foot-long buoy barrier in the Rio Grande River near Eagle Pass. According to the Department of Public Safety, since the inception of the program, more than 522,000 migrants have been apprehended in Texas and there have been 47,640 criminal arrests. Gov. Abbott has asked lawmakers to appropriate an additional $2.7 billion for the upcoming budget that will continue the program through 2027.
The US Department of Homeland Security reported this week that deportations of migrants have tripled since June of this year. According to Border Report, DHS has returned 740,000 people to their home countries over the last four months. In the month of September, there were less than 54,000 unlawful border crossings, the lowest figure since 2020.
Political Notes
Former President Trump will be in Austin later today to record an interview with podcast giant Joe Rogan. Rogan has 14 million followers on Spotify and is on a long run of leading the podcast ratings. The podcast began in 2009, with topics appealing to younger male voters. Guests of the show are from all areas of culture including sports, entertainment, politics, and comedy.
The House Democratic Caucus has formed a special committee to discuss the race for Texas House Speaker. In an email to members, Caucus Chair Rep. Trey Martinez Fischer (D, San Antonio) said he is appointing a cross section of members “to ensure the Democrats’ voices are heard.” Rep. David Cook of Mansfield is the Republican candidate that is currently challenging incumbent Rep. Dade Phelan for the Speaker’s gavel. No candidate – nor Phelan — have claimed a majority of the House members in support so far.
The race to replace Democrat Tracy King of Uvalde for the Texas House District 80 seat is a priority to flip the Republicans. Former Uvalde Mayor Don McLaughlin faces Cecilia Castellano in the November election. Castellano defeated Rosie Cuellar in the Democratic primary earlier this year. But Cuellar has endorsed and appeared in an ad for McLaughlin. The primary was ugly, with Castellano accusing Cuellar – a former Webb County Tax Assessor Collector – of being a criminal, which is an attempt to create a connection between Cuellar and her brother, Congressman Henry Cuellar. The Congressman and his wife are under indictment for bribery and abuse of office charges. In the ad, Cuellar points out that Castellano’s home and office were recently raided by state officials for an alleged vote harvesting scheme.
This seat, based in rural south Texas, is the Republican’s best shot at flipping to their control. The seat has been trending more Republican in recent elections and was carried by Abbott by 6 points in the 2022 gubernatorial election.
In state House District 117 in San Antonio, Rep. Steve Allison was defeated by Marc LaHood in the Republican primary this year. LaHood received Gov. Abbott’s endorsement and won the race by painting Allison as too moderate. The Democrats see the seat as a possibility to flip. LaHood is facing Democrat Laurel Swift in the general election, and Swift is labeling La Hood as too conservative and out of touch for the more moderate district, which is based in Alamo Heights and runs north near Bulverde. Swift received a boost earlier this week when Allison endorsed her over his fellow Republican. Allison said he has found Swift to be the “better and more qualified candidate”, and he is encouraging all Republicans to consider voting for her.
A hotly contested open House seat in the Corpus area is receiving attention from high-profile elected officials. The seat is currently held by Democrat Abel Herrero of Robstown and is a target for the Republicans to take over. Republican Denise Villalobos of Corpus Christi is the Republican nominee, facing off against Democrat Solomon Ortiz, Jr, also of Corpus. On Monday, Gov. Abbott went to the district to help campaign for Villalobos. Later in the week, former San Antonio Mayor and Housing Secretary Julian Castro made a stop to stump for Ortiz. The district leans slightly Democrat, but Republicans see it trending more to their side in recent elections.
What’s Next??
There are no legislative hearings scheduled for next week. Early voting continues and most candidates and officeholders will be home campaigning next week.
Here is a link to the full list of hearings later this fall, and the agenda for each hearing: https://capitol.texas.gov
There are 11 days until the general election and 80 days until the start of the regular legislative session. There are only 17 days until the start of prefiling of legislation for the regular session. Prefiling begins on the Monday after the general election.