Here’s a quick recap of what happened over the last week:
Former Governor Helping Cornyn
A coalition of Republican donors organized by former Texas Governor Rick Perry have donated $18 million to help reelect incumbent US Senator John Cornyn, who is in the fight of his life against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Congressman Wesley Hunt in the 2026 Republican primary. The group has organized as the Lone Star Freedom Project, and includes former Navy Seal and lone survivor Marcus Luttrell, the brother of Houston area Congressman Morgan Luttrell.
The $18 million is by far the largest expenditure by or on behalf of any of the three candidates so far. Paxton and his affiliates have spent virtually nothing on advertising, saying they are going to wait until after the first of the year to begin their push. Pro-Hunt groups have spent around $5 million to bolster Hunt’s name ID and more recently launch attacks on Cornyn. Another group called Texas Conservatives Fund has spent $3.5 million on ads focused on Cornyn’s votes on immigration and the border wall that were in conflict with the initiatives from the Trump administration.
Cornyn has also been the beneficiary of two different super PACs to the tune of nearly $40 million that are tied to the Republican leadership in the US Senate. Even with this huge infusion of cash and advertising, Cornyn continues to trail in all polls. Most – if not all – polls that have surveyed likely Republican primary voters show Paxton with a modest lead among the three candidates. Polls differ on which candidate is in second place. The most recent poll by Decision Desk HQ shows Paxton leading the group with 32%, trailed by Cornyn at 27% and Hunt with 23%. Hunt’s campaign has released internal polling showing him in second place, trailing Paxton by roughly 5 points and leading Cornyn by 3 points in a three-way race. In response to the money spent by the different groups to help Cornyn, Hunt said, “The only thing keeping John Cornyn’s campaign alive is John Cornyn’s money, strip that away and the entire operation collapses under its own weight.”
Hinjosa Leading Democratic Primary
Gov. Abbott has no credible opposition in the race for the Republican primary for Governor in 2026, therefore assuring him of his party’s nomination for reelection. On the Democratic side, a recent poll shows Austin area state Rep. Gina Hinojosa with a substantial lead over her two main rivals. A poll conducted in early December by the Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs at Texas Southern University showed Hinojosa was the choice of 41% of the respondents that are likely to vote in the Democratic primary. Trailing much farther behind was Houston attorney Andrew White at 6% and former Houston Congressman Chris Bell at 5%. The only bad news for Hinojosa in the poll was the 42% of the respondents that are still either undeclared or unsure for whom they will vote.
Another area of concern for Hinojosa – and potentially good news for White and Bell – is that over 1/3rd of the respondents said they do not know enough about any of the candidates to make a choice, leaving room for White and Bell to make up ground if they are able to raise their name ID. The other bit of good news for Hinojosa was she is the only candidate that was actually known by a slight majority of those surveyed. And among those that did recognize her, she received a 53% favorable rating.
The lack of familiarity by the voters for the Democratic nominees for the state’s highest office exemplifies the ongoing state of the Democratic Party in Texas. No Democrat has won a statewide race since 1994, and that is due in large part to the stature and portfolio of the candidates that have chosen to run over the last 30 plus years. With few exceptions, the party’s basic infrastructure and operations have not yielded to the development of any credible candidates that have a realistic chance of defeating the Republican incumbents.
Democrats Get Help from National Party
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) – a national organization dedicated to electing Democrats to state legislatures – has committed to send funds to Texas to help with their efforts to flip a small number of legislative seats from the Republican column. Republicans currently hold an 88-62 partisan advantage in the 150-member Texas House, but the Texas House Democrats have identified several seats they will target for takeover. State Rep. Christina Morales of Houston will head the effort to retain seats currently held by Democrats and flip the seats they feel are vulnerable. Their optimism is based on the 2018 election – during President Trump’s first term – when the Democrats flipped 12 seats in the Texas House.
No specific figure was given, but the DLCC has a budget of $50 million for all states, and Texas will be part of the money doled out. The DLCC also feels optimistic about the 2026 elections due in part to recent wins in New Jersey and Virginia. Republicans have held a majority in the Texas House since 2002, and have not seen that majority threatened in recent cycles.
Paxton Suing Television Manufacturers
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is suing the manufacturers of televisions accusing them of secretly surveilling Texans inside their homes. Paxton has sued 5 major companies – Sony, LG, Samsung, Hisense, and TCL – alleging they collect viewing data from consumers without their consent. Paxton also notes that Hisense and TCL are based in China, which he claims raises security concerns.
Paxton claims in the lawsuits that the companies embed technology in their smart televisions that are designed to capture screenshots that allow the companies to monitor viewing habits of consumers on all platforms including streaming services and gaming consoles. In turn, Paxton alleges the companies are able to build a detailed profile for each consumer that is sold for targeted advertising purposes – all without the knowledge of the consumer.
Paxton calls this type of alleged activity invasive, deceptive, and illegal, and claims this is a violation of a person’s basic right to privacy. The lawsuits allege specific violations of the Texas Deceptive Practices Act by failing to disclose the extent of data collection by the companies and a misrepresentation of how information is used. The lawsuits seek civil penalties – fines – and an injunctive relief to stop the data collection.
Mayor Whitmire Loses Democratic Endorsements
Democratic precinct chairs in Houston have voted overwhelmingly to forbid the party from endorsing incumbent Mayor John Whitmire for his expected 2027 reelection campaign. The precinct chairs voted 186-80 to deny the endorsement in response to Whitmire’s participation in an April fundraising event for Houston area Republican Congressman Dan Crenshaw.
Whitmire has faced growing criticism from partisan Democrats and precinct chairs since his appearance at Crenshaw’s fundraiser who have accused him of “undermining the values and mission of the Democratic Party.” Many party faithful have piled on, taking the criticism farther saying Whitmire has not mounted strong enough resistance to President Trump in light of major policy changes at the federal level, including the presence of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents that have conducted operations to seek and deport undocumented immigrants in the city.
Mayor Whitmire has been a Democrat for his entire 50-plus years in politics. He was first elected to the state House in 1972 and was then elected to the state Senate in 1982, where he served until being sworn in as Mayor of Houston in 2023. Whitmire rightfully defends his actions, claiming that a city leader must build coalitions and partnerships with anyone willing to help the city reach its goals and institute its policies.
Whitmire now has one more election to go, as the Houston Mayor is term-limited to two four-year terms. The Houston mayoral race is nonpartisan, meaning candidates do not have to declare a party affiliation to run. Therefore, many experts believe the lack of an endorsement from the Democratic Party in Harris County will have minimal impact on Whitmire’s reelection. Whitmire is perceived as popular in the city and is credited with building a coalition of conservative and liberal bases that will help him get reelected. However, this development will certainly give rise to a progressive candidate that will hammer Whitmire on his perceived lack of commitment to Democratic party initiatives that will provide a hotly contested reelection battle in 2027.
Political Notes
Even though the party has seen little to no success at any level over the last 30 years, the state Democratic party announced this week that there is a Democrat running in every state and federal race in 2026. That means that there is a candidate for every state Representative, state Senate, and Congressional race, along with the entire statewide slate. The party credits the efforts of former Congressman Beto O’Rourke and former state Senator Wendy Davis to recruit the candidates needed to fill every seat. The party did not want to give any Republican candidate a “free ride” to reelection, no matter how conservative the district. Democrats say they will try and capitalize on backlash to the Trump administration, with the hopes of increasing turnout that will increase the chances to flip down-ballot seats.
The same poll referenced above in the Democratic primary for Governor also surveyed voters regarding the Democratic primary for state Attorney General. The survey found former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski leading Dallas area state Senator Nathan Johnson by a small margin of 22% to 19%. As in the Democratic primary for Governor, a majority of the voters are unfamiliar with either candidate in the race for AG. The winner will face the Republican nominee. The GOP field in this race is led by Congressman Chip Roy of Dripping Springs, and followed by former DOJ attorney Aaron Reitz, along with state Senators Joan Huffman of Houston and Mayes Middleton of Galveston.
In the special election to replace former Congressman Sylvester Turner of Houston – who passed away in March while in office – former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards received a key endorsement this week when state Rep. Jolanda Jones threw her support to Edwards. Jones was also a candidate for the seat but did not make the runoff in the first round of voting. Edwards is in a January 31st runoff with Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee.
Menefee released a poll this week showing him leading Edwards by a 43% to 30% margin. The poll was conducted by Lake Research Partners among likely voters in the runoff election. Lake Research Partners is a public opinion and research firm based in Washington focusing on Democratic polling and races.
Democratic Congressman Marc Veasey of Fort Worth has dropped his bid to become Tarrant County Judge. Veasey has represented Congressional District 33 in Tarrant County since 2013 and decided to challenge conservative Republican incumbent Tarrant County Judge Tim O’Hare in 2026 instead of seeking reelection to Congress after the newly drawn Congressional districts left him with little chance for reelection. But just one day after filing for the county judge race, Veasey announced he was dropping out of the race, citing a need to spend more time at home with his family and wanting to focus on his last year in Congress.
Former Republican Congressman Steve Stockman of Friendswood is trying a comeback. Stockman was convicted in 2018 on 23 federal corruption charges stemming from personal use of campaign funds. He was sentenced to 10 years in prison. President Trump commuted Stockman’s sentence in 2020. Stockman claims to be rehabilitated and fit to run, this time for Congressional District 9, based in southeast Harris County. He will face state Rep. Briscoe Cain of Deer Park and former Harris County Judge candidate Alexandra del Moral Mealer in the Republican primary.
What’s Next??
Members will have to report their latest campaign finance numbers in January, with the numbers reflecting money raised in the last half of 2025. So, to try and pad their account showing a large campaign balance, many of the members have been holding fundraisers over the last few days in Austin before everyone retreats into full holiday mode.
No interim committee activity on the immediate horizon, but we could see some committee hearings after the first of the year, specifically on the property tax issue, that could not only include discussions on property tax relief, but also how to further regulate and restrict local governments regarding appraisals and procedures for local option elections.
This will be the last update for 2025. Wishing everyone a safe and happy holiday season, and a very prosperous 2026. I’ll be back with the regular update on January 9th.