Here’s a quick recap of what happened over the last week:
Cornyn Again Denied Trump Endorsement
In an interview with the Houston Chronicle earlier this week, incumbent US Senator John Cornyn said he again asked President Trump for his endorsement in the hotly contested Republican primary where Cornyn is seeking a 5th term. He is facing a challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Houston area Congressman Wesley Hunt. Cornyn claims his pitch to the President was that “this race could be over if you decided to endorse.” But Trump has again refused to pick a favorite in the race.
Furthermore, Politico reported on Wednesday evening – citing “sources familiar with the White House’s thinking” – that President Trump has no intention of making an endorsement in this race.
Cornyn has been the beneficiary of over $40 million in advertising financed mostly by PAC’s and other affiliates tied to US Senate Majority Leader John Thune. It has helped – to a certain degree. Cornyn trailed front runner Ken Paxton by as much as 25 points in polls conducted last fall. Now, most polls show a fairly tight race with Paxton leading both Cornyn and Hunt by high single digits, depending on the poll. Hunt recently released a poll showing him tied with Cornyn for 2nd place. Hunt’s poll – Conducted by Semafor and released in early December – showed Paxton leading the field with 34%, with Cornyn and Hunt tied at 22%.
As I have discussed before in my updates, for a four-term incumbent to be polling in the low 20’s among the party faithful can be seen as a rejection of his candidacy by Republican primary voters. What is even more concerning for Cornyn is his consistently negative approval/disapproval numbers registered by respondents. In the Semafor poll, Cornyn’s favorability rating was 29/44 (-15) positive/negative. The same poll showed Paxton with a +20-approval rating and Hunt with a +13-approval rating.
More on Senate Republican Primary
One problem Cornyn does not have is money. For the federal election reports due on January 31st – showing the money raised during the last quarter of 2025 – the Cornyn campaign announced this week it would report raising $7 million from October through December and now has $15 million cash on hand. Cornyn – and the national PAC’s supporting his candidacy – have poured most of their resources into attacking Paxton, who is the favorite of the far-right activists and MAGA supporters in the party but comes with significant political baggage.
Paxton has been dogged by personal and legal problems. He is going through a divorce and fights allegations of infidelity. He has also been the subject of serious legal issues stemming from allegations of abuse of office and bribery tied to his relationship with a real estate investor in Austin that has experienced legal issues of his own. Paxton was impeached by the Texas House in 2024 – and subsequently acquitted by the Texas Senate – in response to the allegations. But through all of this, Paxton has consistently led the three-man field and has expended very few resources to maintain his polling advantage.
There is no mystery as to how Paxton has maintained his favored status among the activists and MAGA supporters in the party. He has consistently championed the more conservative policies that are priorities of the activist wing of the party during his tenure as state Attorney General. He was a voracious aggressor against policies of the Biden administration and consistently filed lawsuits challenging those policies including topics related to border enforcement, claims of election fraud, and rights of LGBTQ individuals. Paxton also has championed other causes, never shying away from lawsuits and investigations to promote the elimination of diversity, equality, and inclusion policies; to further changes instituting more conservative curriculum in public universities; allowing for more freedom of choice regarding vaccinations; and extending the powers of his office to prosecute criminal cases in local jurisdictions.
Paxton has also not been shy about reminding voters that Cornyn has been guilty of taking a position on numerous occasions that conflicted with the priorities of the party. Cornyn was initially critical of Trump when he declared his intention to run for President in 2024, saying he doubted Trump had the support to win. Cornyn also criticized President Trump during his first term when Trump prioritized building the border wall saying the proposal was “not realistic” and was the sponsor of legislation after the tragic school shooting in Uvalde that called for a nominal increase in oversight of the background check process when purchasing a firearm.
For his part, Congressman Hunt has focused his attacks solely on Cornyn, saying it is time for a change of leadership in the US Senate. Hunt, at 43 years of age, says Cornyn at 73 has been in the Senate too long, even going as far to say “the Senate is not a retirement home…” He also criticizes Cornyn for only trying to align with Trump now that his campaign is in trouble and has said the only thing keeping it alive is the massive influx of cash from the Senate Majority Leader.
The race will in all likelihood go to a runoff. Under Texas law, any candidate must receive at least 50% of the vote in the primary. If no one gets 50%, the top two vote getters go into a runoff. A more recent poll than the Semafor poll referenced above – released by Emerson College/Nexstar Media this week – showed no candidate was anywhere near the 50% threshold. The survey showed Paxton at 27%, Cornyn at 26%, and Hunt at 16%. But there are 47 days to go before the primary, and the mudslinging is really just getting started.
Now the Democrats
Once again, the Democrats will have a high-profile, well-funded candidate to take on the eventual winner of the Republican primary. In 2018, Beto O’Rourke raised $80 million and came within three points of upsetting incumbent Republican Ted Cruz, who was seeking his second term. Since then, the Democrats have not come close. In 2024, Colin Allred raised over $100 million but still lost to Cruz – this time seeking a third term – by nine points. In his last reelection bid in 2020, Cornyn – after facing no Republican primary opposition – easily defeated US Air Force veteran MJ Hegar by 10 points.
This year, state Rep. James Talarico and Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett are going head-to-head for the right to compete in November. Talarico will report raising $7 million in the last quarter of 2025, a very impressive haul. Crockett will have nominal numbers since she did not enter the race until December 8th. Talarico can also brag about his ground game. In campaign stops over the weekend, he touted the 13,000 volunteers that are helping his campaign that have a plan to knock on doors in 20 cities statewide in the coming weeks.
Crockett started her campaign over the weekend with stops in the Rio Grande Valley, Corpus, and San Antonio and was joined by Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa and state Rep. Barbara Gervin-Hawkins of San Antonio.
Talarico may have the early lead in the money race, but Crockett – due to her high-profile attacks on President Trump – will have the higher name ID. However, the most recent poll released in this race shows Talarico with a 47% to 38% advantage over Crockett. Emerson College/Nexstar Media released this poll – surveying 400 likely Democratic primary voters – this week showing Talarico with a surprisingly large lead over the more likely well-known Congresswoman. The memo accompanying the release of the poll said Talarico’s lead can be attributed to his strong support among White and Hispanic voters, with Crockett showing strength among women and Black voters.
Policy differences will be minimal between these two, unlike their counterparts on the Republican side. Talarico is the more gentle of the two, with a background as a teacher and as a pastor. Crockett is the more aggressive and will be able to command attention more easily on her candidacy. Both will both focus their attacks on Trump and tout their own credentials as the best way to fight in Washington.
The first taste of how the race will go will be tomorrow when the two will debate in Georgetown. I’ll have a full report on the debate next week.
Texas Department of State Health Services Propose Increase in Fees for Hemp Businesses
In late 2025, President Donald Trump signed a federal spending bill that redefined “hemp” under federal law and effectively outlaws most hemp-derived THC products, including products like edibles, vapes, and beverages, making them controlled substances instead of legal hemp. That action closed what many called the “hemp loophole” in the 2018 Farm Bill that allowed the products to be sold legally nationwide. The ban is set to take effect in November 2026, but there is congressional effort to delay implementation to 2028, allowing the industry more time to adjust.
For regulatory context, Texas currently does not specifically prohibit hemp and hemp-derived products– including some THC products– under state law if they meet federal THC limits. The hemp-derived THC market in Texas expanded quickly in recent years, with thousands of retailers statewide. Texas lawmakers state that the original intent of legalization of use of hemp in agricultural applications was intended to help farmers and has instead ruined that opportunity.
Lubbock Senator Charles Perry has made comments about the unreliability of the 8 billion dollar a year industry, “…an industry that has shown itself not to be trustworthy has exploited this issue to the point that it has endangered public health… If they’re making $8 billion in sales, they can afford to be licensed and have manufacturing fees to support the enforcement side.” Regulators say that they need more resources to enforce safety standards and prevent sales to minors. Last year, Texas lawmakers considered and even passed (but then vetoed) a bill that would have banned the sale of hemp-derived THC products altogether. Governor Greg Abbott instead directed agencies to regulate the industry instead of banning it.
Texas health regulators– specifically the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) — have put forward a new set of rules for consumable hemp products. This would include a dramatic increase in licensing and registration fees for businesses that sell or manufacture hemp-derived THC products. These key proposed changes include retailer license fees that would jump from $150 per year to $20,000 per location per year, roughly a 13,000% increase. Manufacturer license fees would increase from $250 to $25,000 per facility per year. New rules would also include age requirements (21+), stricter testing and labeling standards, product recall procedures, and expanded oversight. These fee hikes are coming at a time when the industry is trying to stay viable and regulated at the state level.
Supporters are saying that these changes are necessary to fund law enforcement and improve consumer safety, while critics argue they will force many small in-state businesses to close. Higher fees will reduce the number of independent retailers and manufacturers, meaning bigger companies with deeper reserves will dominate the field. If the number of hemp-derived THC products shrinks, limited competition will also lead to higher prices for consumers. Industry advocates are also warning that overly strict state regulation will push consumers toward unregulated or black-market resources.
It is important to note that medical marijuana is legal in Texas, but under a very specific and limited state program called the Texas Compassionate Use Program. This allows certain patients to obtain prescription medical cannabis from licensed dispensaries if they meet strict qualifying criteria. A major update to the Compassionate Use Program this past regular session significantly expanded the program, adding more conditions like chronic pain and inflammatory diseases to the qualifying list. This program is separate from the market for hemp-derived THC products, which exists in a more uncertain regulatory space. Federal actions and Texas proposals both target intoxicating THC products but affect different segments.
Abbott Calls for State Takeover of Harris County Elections
Republican state Senator Paul Bettencourt of Houston has filed a formal complaint with the Secretary of State’s Office after the Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector and Voter Registrar’s Office found more than 100 voter registrations linked to private post office boxes, in violation of state elections law, and the Texas Secretary of State has asked the office to review an additional 126 addresses. The complaint did not allege that any illegal votes were cast, but it did focus on technical concerns about the accuracy of voter registration data.
In response to claims of election and voter fraud by President Trump after the 2020 election, the legislature in both 2021 and 2023 passed laws to both abolish the Harris County Clerk’s office and to allow the state to impose administrative oversight over the conduct of elections in Harris County.
In response to the discovery of the illegal addresses on voter registration forms, Governor Abbott has publicly called for a state takeover of Harris County’s elections and suggested stripping local officials of election control, to put state officials in charge instead. He has stated on social media that “Harris County is a repeat violator of election integrity… should be stripped of operating elections… potential legal charges should also be considered.” These comments have come as Harris County is preparing for several major elections this year, including midterms.
His statements have been widely criticized as overreach, and Harris County leaders have strongly rejected the idea, noting that the governor has no legal authority to seize control of election administration. Due to the nature of the complaint being about registration records and not how ballots are counted or polling places are run, county officials are also emphasizing that election administration and voter registration are handled by different offices. This dispute is a part of ongoing political tension between Texas Republican leaders and officials in Harris County, a largely Democratic area.
Texas Senate District 3 Race Heats Up
The only race of the five open seats in the Texas Senate this cycle where Lt. Governor Dan Patrick has not given an endorsement is the race for Senate District 3 in deep east Texas where incumbent Robert Nichols of Jacksonville is retiring. The district comprises 18 rural counties, running from Athens – west of Tyler – in the north, down the Louisiana border to Beaumont in the south.
State Rep. Trent Ashby of Lufkin is facing off against activist Rhonda Ward of Nacogdoches. Ashby is perceived as the favorite due to his 6 terms in the House and numerous endorsements from community organizations and locally elected officials. But Ward – a former member of the State Republican Executive Committee – can tout the endorsement of several of Ashby’s House colleagues, including Rep. Joanne Shofner of Nacogdoches. And with the latest campaign finance reports, Ward underlined the legitimacy of her campaign by announcing she will report an impressive $2.1 million in contributions received during the last half of 2025. She also enters the last 47 days of the campaign with $1.3 million cash on hand.
This race sets up as the classic clash between the two factions of the Republican party. Ashby is the more moderate, relying on the traditional institutions of support such as chambers of commerce, trade associations, and prominent community figures. For instance, he recently announced the endorsements from the sheriffs in all 18 counties in the district, an impressive accomplishment. Sheriffs are very well respected in rural Texas and generally wield tremendous influence over local political activities.
In contrast, Ward can tout her long time and unwavering support of party priorities and loyalty to all Republican candidates and officeholders. Being a member of the State Republican Executive Committee also allowed her to establish relationships with party activists, precinct chairs, and others involved in the party infrastructure. It also allows her to claim her independence from the political norms of Austin and gives credence to her commitment to the most conservative priorities of the party. Recently, she has criticized Ashby’s time in his younger years as a staff member to then Congressman Jim Turner of Crockett – a Democrat. Look for that theme to continue throughout the race.
No polling has been released by either candidate, but the race is perceived to be very tight, and the candidate that has the better ground game to get their supporters to the polls will likely end up being the winner.
Political Notes
Campaign reports for state level candidates and officeholders showing their fundraising activities from July through December of 2025 were due to be filed yesterday. Announcements and details of the reports will trickle in over the next few days. Gov. Abbott announced yesterday that he raised $23 million over the last 6 months of 2025 and now has a staggering $106 million cash on hand. In comparison, Democratic frontrunner state Rep. Gina Hinojosa announced raising $1.3 million during the same period. Her campaign did not announce a cash on hand total.
The Speaker and Lt. Governor sent letters to their respective memberships this week asking members to submit their priorities for topics to be considered for the interim. Each interim period – the time between regular sessions – standing House and Senate committees will be issued a list of topics to review and study in preparation for the next regular session. These interim studies are an important start to the legislation that will be considered when the legislature convenes again in January. For the House, members have until February 9th to submit their requests. In the Senate, members have until February 20th.
Republican state Rep. Jared Patterson of Frisco has drawn two primary opponents and has focused his attacks on retired Air Force Colonel Larry Brock. Brock has criticized Patterson for his lack of conservative credentials, including Patterson’s vote to impeach Attorney General Ken Paxton in 2024. Patterson is hitting back, calling out Brock for a social media post he made regarding his involvement in the January 6th insurrection at the US Capitol. Brock called on his “team” to invade the Capitol, overthrow the government, and “not to kill cops – unless necessary.” Brock was convicted and sentenced to 24 months in prison for his role and was subsequently pardoned by President Trump. Patterson points to the “danger of letting someone like that have the keys to the Capitol.”
The January 31st special election to replace former Senator Kelly Hancock – who resigned in June after being appointed interim state Comptroller – is heating up. The Tarrant County district leans Republican, but Democrat Taylor Rehmet led the field after the initial round of voting over two Republican opponents in November. Now Rehmet is running digital ads against Republican Leigh Wambsganss calling her a “paid hater” who is beholden to her billionaire donors. Not a new strategy for Democratic candidates. This is not the last round of voting in this race. The special election is to serve out the remainder of the term that lasts through the end of the year. The two will face off again in November to determine who gets the full four-year term.
Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller is seeking his third term and is facing serious opposition from Navy veteran and honey farmer Nate Sheets. This week, Sheets picked up the endorsement of two influential agriculture related groups when the Cattle Raisers PAC and Cattle Feeders PAC endorsed the challenger. Miller has long been at odds with many of the agriculture related groups, and for the first time many of those groups have decided to endorse Miller’s opponent. Sheets also has the endorsement of many influential legislators including Senate Agriculture and Water Committee Chairman Charles Perry, Senator Angela Paxton of Plano, and Senator Kevin Sparks of Amarillo.
What’s Next??
The primary election is just 48 days away. Early voting starts February 17th.
With the letter from the chamber leaders requesting interim study requests, we now have a timetable on when interim charges may be issued, which should be shortly after the primary election.
In the meantime, we could have interim hearings on major issues including property taxes, that could not only include discussions on property tax relief, but also how to further regulate and restrict local governments regarding appraisals and procedures for local option elections.
Legislators are once again ramping up their fundraising activities. Yesterday was the deadline for candidates and office holders to report their latest fundraising totals, reflecting activity from July 1st through December 31st. More on the fundraising totals and who has the money lead in each race next week.