Here’s a quick recap of what happened over the last week:
Democrat Flips State Senate Seat
Fort Worth area Democrat Taylor Rehment flipped a reliably Republican state Senate seat in Tarrant County in a special election last Saturday. Rehmet was facing Republican Leigh Wambsganss to determine who would serve out the remainder of the term left vacant with the resignation of Kelly Hancock in June, who left the Senate to become acting state Comptroller.
President Trump had just won the district by 17 points in the 2024 Presidential election, as this special election continues a trend of Democrats overperforming in elections over the last few months. Not only did Rehmet win, his 14-point margin of victory was stunning and overwhelming for Republicans. He was also far outspent by Wambsganss. Rehmet reported $68,000 in expenses for the special election compared to $736,000 spent by Wambsganss. Turnout was low with only 15% of registered voters in the district having cast a ballot in this race.
Wambsganss had secured the endorsements of President Trump, Gov. Abbott, Lt. Governor Dan Patrick, and scores of locally elected officials throughout the district. Wambsganss is a staunch social conservative and was catapulted into her candidacy after she was instrumental in several successful local school board races where she backed winning candidates that promised to insert Christian views and teachings into the curriculum of public schools.
The two will face off again in November when the regular election for the full four-year term will be on the ballot. Wambsganss called the special election a “wakeup call” and predicted the outcome would be different in November. She is likely to be correct, as turnout will be much higher with all statewide races on the November ballot ahead of this state Senate race. Wambsganss will continue to be backed by state leadership, which will lead to continued financial support from Republican party backers. After the special election, Rehmet reports having no cash on hand, compared to $310,000 for Wambsganss. Neither has an opponent in the March primary.
Latest Poll Shows Paxton Still Leading
The latest poll in the Republican race for US Senate shows the race still too close to call, but Paxton continues to maintain his very slim lead over his two rivals in the race. The poll also shows continued bad news for incumbent John Cornyn. Despite the massive amount of spending on TV and digital ads – nearly $50 million so far – Cornyn has not been able to get above the mid-20’s in any polls. In addition to the low polling numbers, Paxton continues to lead after having spent virtually nothing so far on advertising. And the worse news of all for Cornyn in this poll is that he is now polling in last place, behind Houston Congressman Wesley Hunt.
The poll by Washington, DC based JL Partners shows Paxton leading the field as the preferred candidate of 27% of the respondents. Hunt came in second at 25.7%, and Cornyn trailed with 25.5%. 21% of the respondents say they are still undecided. However, the poll’s margin of error is 4%, so these numbers show the race as a virtual tie.
The poll showed Paxton and Hunt as the two favored candidates among the self-identified “MAGA Republicans”, generally considered the more conservative members of the party. Paxton had an approval rating of 52% among this group while Hunt scored a 54% approval with the MAGA crowd. The same group gave Cornyn a 4% approval rating. That adds to the continued bad news for Cornyn, should he make the runoff. (A runoff will be required if no candidate receives 50% of the vote). Turnout in runoffs are generally very low, and the typical voter is the most conservative and partisan. So should Cornyn make the runoff, he would be a huge underdog to either Hunt or Paxton.
The JL Partners poll surveyed 600 likely Republican primary voters from January 31st to February 2nd and was released yesterday.
Talarico Makes Racial Comment On Allred, Allred Endorses Crockett
Democratic US Senate candidate state Rep James Talarico has found himself in an online firestorm after he allegedly made racially based, critical comments against former Senate – and current Congressional – candidate Colin Allred. The Democratic primary for the 2026 US Senate seat in Texas is a two-candidate race and has become highly competitive, as the two Democrats will seek to challenge the winner of the hotly contested Republican primary. Former US Representative Colin Allred initially launched a campaign for the Senate but later withdrew and redirected his candidacy to a US House race.
For background on the allegations, a political content creator and influencer on TikTok, Morgan Thompson, (who posts under the username @morga_tt) has claimed that in a private conversation on January 12th, Talarico stated that he had “signed up to run against a mediocre Black man, not a formidable, intelligent Black woman.” The reference was allegedly directed at former Congressman Colin Allred, who was in the Senate race until dropping out in November, when Rep. Jasmine Crockett joined the race.
Thompson said in the video that she has no recording or evidence of the conversation, but she does lay out proof that she had been in contact with Talarico’s campaign team about planning the interaction by showing a photo of her with Talarico, and a claim that she did a TikTok interview with him as well. She noted in an interview that she did anticipate not having a recording of the conversation would raise skepticism, but she still felt that it was important to bring the issue forward. Thompson also has a public record of support for Talarico but has since endorsed Crockett. Many voters in the comments of her videos seem to be extremely skeptical of her accusations, but Talarico’s public response to the alleged statement can be taken otherwise.
He put out a statement Monday stating that the claim was a mischaracterization of a private conversation, saying that he was only critiquing Allred’s method of campaigning. “I would never attack him on the basis of race. As a Black man in America, Congressman Allred has had to work twice as hard to get where he is.” People have noted that this is not a denial of the allegations, but instead a clarification on intent of messaging. Allred has publicly blasted Talarico on social media through a series of videos following the event, directly addressing Talarico: “James, if you want to compliment Black women, just do it. Just do it. Don’t do it while also tearing down a Black man.” He has since endorsed Crockett, who described the controversy as “unfortunate” and stood by the broader issues raised in Allred’s response.
The Texas Democratic Primary has been attempting to unite behind a nominee who can challenge entrenched Republican power within the state. After a cordial and positive debate between Crockett and Talarico last week, this is the last thing the Democrats wanted or needed with less than a month before the primary election.
The issue has exposed racial dynamics, candidate strategy, and messaging challenges within those efforts. With the primary approaching, endorsements like Allred’s can influence key voting blocs and shape the competitive basis between Talarico and Crockett moving forward. The dispute has highlighted intraparty tensions among Texas Democrats and added a layer of complexity to the primary fight.
Senate Fundraising Totals
Backed by the power of incumbency, US Senator John Cornyn once again outraised his other two Republican rivals in the last quarter of 2025, according to the candidates’ recently filed campaign reports. During that time period, Cornyn raised $7 million between all of his fundraising committees. Cornyn has his own campaign committee and a committee established by the National Republican Senate Committee – designed to protect Republican incumbents. Between the two committees, Cornyn has roughly $15 million on hand for the last month of the primary campaign.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton raised $1.3 million in the final quarter of 2025 and has $3.7 million cash on hand. Houston Congressman Wesley Hunt raised $790,000 between his personal and affiliated committees.
Cornyn and his affiliated groups have spent nearly $50 million in advertising over the last several months to try and boost his campaign and tear down the Paxton campaign. Paxton has been nearly silent on the airwaves and on social media so far. With three high-profile candidates, the race will almost assuredly head to a runoff, where Paxton says he will begin his advertising and media campaign. Despite the massive amount of money spent on behalf of Cornyn, most polls show Paxton with a slight lead, but none of the candidates are near the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff.
On the Democratic side, Austin area state Rep. James Talarico goes into the last month of the campaign with $7.1 million cash on hand, compared to $5.6 million for Dallas Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett. Both candidates reported raising just over $6 million in the last quarter of 2025, including $4.5 million that Crockett was able to transfer from her Congressional account.
Crockett has not made any TV ad buys since an initial $1 million buy when she first announced her candidacy in December. Talarico has spent $6.6 million on ads that are currently running statewide on all platforms including digital, cable and streaming. Recent polls show the pair in a virtual tie among Democratic voters, with Crockett poised to take the lead when her advertising begins.
DOJ Seeking to “Clean” Texas Voter Rolls & Nationalize Elections
The Department of Justice is now actively pursuing voter registration data from Texas and other states as a part of a nationwide request for states’ voter rolls. Texas has agreed to turn over the complete list of its roughly 18.6 million registered voters, including highly sensitive information like addresses, dates of birth, driver’s license numbers, and partial Social Security numbers to federal authorities for review. The effort is framed by the DOJ as an attempt to “clean” voter rolls before midterm elections– meaning to check for and remove people deemed ineligible (noncitizens, those who have moved, or died). The DOJ is also suing around two dozen states that have refused to provide full unredacted voter roll data.
President Trump has also publicly suggested that Republicans should “nationalize” election administration, including “taking over the voting” in at least 15 unspecified places. Trump has also said that the federal government needs to have a more direct role in election operations– a significant departure from the long-standing US practice – and mandate in the US Constitution – of state-run elections. The calls tie back to his repeated claims of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election, along with his views that stronger federal oversight is necessary to ensure “honest” elections. The Department of Justice officials are arguing that this helps enforce federal election laws requiring regular maintenance of voter lists and election integrity.
Critics like election officials, constitutional scholars, and even some Republican state officials have explicitly rejected Trump’s proposal. They argue that these actions not only contravene the US Constitution assigning election administration to the states but emphasize that elections have always been administered at the state and local level. Election and civil rights advocates also warn that providing such detailed voter data– especially partial Social Security numbers– to the federal government jeopardizes voter privacy and security. Legal experts note that the demand could exceed federal authority, violating privacy laws and protections that are otherwise protected by state law.
Democrats and voting-right groups also fear that this data could be used to engineer a large-scale removal of eligible voters if the lists are “over-cleaned” or errors are not corrected. The US Constitution’s Elections Clause currently provides states with the primary role in setting and conducting elections for federal offices, so routine administration and election management have always been decentralized. Trump’s rhetoric will push for a more centralized federal role, which could undermine constitutional balance and provoke legal challenges. Critics see these moves as federal intrusion or power grabs that could suppress voter participation.
TEA Threatens State Takeover of School District Due to ICE Walkouts
The Texas Education Agency (TEA) has issued new guidance this week warning public school districts that they could face serious consequences regarding the recent student protests. This would include state intervention and takeover if the TEA finds that the districts are in any way facilitating or encouraging student walkouts during instructional hours for political protests. The guidance is focusing on walkouts tied to protests against the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and federal immigration enforcement– specifically following the widely shared incidents involving ICE operations. The TEA has already confirmed that it has begun investigations into Austin ISD and other school districts.
The TEA’s statement came after Governor Greg Abbott directed Education Commissioner Mike Morath to investigate student protests in schools, including demonstrations in the Austin area. Under the new direction, the agency has outlined possible consequences for students, teachers, and districts tied to the walkouts. Students who walk out of class to participate in political protests are to be marked as absent, which would possibly affect state attendance funding for the district. Teachers could be investigated and possibly face the revocation of their teaching license. School districts will face state intervention or takeover, which means a monitor, conservator, or board of managers could be appointed to override or replace the locally elected school board. State law allows the TEA commissioner all the authority to take action if he determines that these districts are not complying with state requirements.
The TEA’s threat of takeover reflects a broader tension in Texas education policy between state authority over public schools and local control by elected school boards and communities. Under the state law, the TEA can intervene in districts that violate state rules or standards, including academic, financial, or legal areas. A more recent example of state intervention was the takeover of the Houston ISD. Student protests– including walkouts– often raise questions about First Amendment rights and what is allowed on campus versus what is considered a “school-related disruption”. The TEA’s guidance treats walkouts during school hours as a disruption, but courts have long held that students do not lose all free speech rights at school.
This move has drawn strong reactions from different sides of the political and educational debate. Supporters say that schools should only focus on instruction, not on enabling political activism during any instructional time. Critics are arguing that students’ rights to protest and express their political views– especially about immigration and community safety– should be protected and that state threats of takeover could impose on free speech and local autonomy in schools. This is not the first time that TEA has used its authority to intervene in districts, but what is new here is the emphasis on political activism as a basis for investigation and sanctions.
Senate Releases Interim Charges
Late last Friday afternoon, Lt. Governor Dan Patrick released the first round of interim charges to be considered by the Senate committees. These charges – on which committees will hold public hearings throughout the year – provide the basis for legislation to be considered when the legislature convenes in regular session next January. In releasing the charges, the Lt. Governor said this initial round of charges “reflect issues that I am particularly focused on…”.
The first issue listed was “preventing Sharia law in Texas” and will be under the jurisdiction of the State Affairs Committee. The committee is directed to scrutinize the East Plano Islamic Center, a planned Muslim community in Collin County. Attorney General Ken Paxton has already filed suit to stop any construction in the community. Lt. Governor Patrick said the purpose of the scrutiny is to “protect Texans from housing discrimination and unscrupulous developers.”
A similar charge was issued to the Senate Education Committee that directs the committee to “promote America and Texas first” in the state’s public schools that includes “strengthening laws that stop hostile communities or related entities from entering Texas classrooms.” This charge follows local outrage when the group Islamic Games requested the use of Colleyville Heritage High School to host their sporting event last fall. Officials from the school district – along with state leaders – halted all negotiations with the group when allegations surfaced that the event was sponsored in part by the Council on American-Islamic Relations, which has been deemed as a foreign terrorist organization by President Trump and Gov. Abbott.
Lt. Governor Patrick has also tasked the Senate Finance Committee with providing an overview and assessment of the recent voter approved reduction in homestead exemptions, which increases the amount of a home’s value that cannot be taxed by local school districts. Patrick is also asking the Senate Business and Commerce Committee to evaluate the supply chain that feeds the state’s electric grid, including identifying any vulnerabilities and risks posed to the supply chain by foreign nations. And finally – in response to the allegations of massive fraud under the Medicaid program in Minnesota regarding childcare, the Senate Health and Human Service Committee will consider ways to prevent abuses in all state human services programs.
Political Notes
Republican state Senator Mayes Middleton released a poll this week showing him tied with the front runner – Congressman Chip Roy – in the race for the Republican nomination for state Attorney General. Previous polls have shown Roy with a substantial lead over the other candidates in the race. The memo released with the poll credited Middleton’s $2 million TV buy that has run over the last several weeks as the reason Middleton has closed the gap. The poll shows both Middleton and Roy tied at 22% among the 939 likely Republican voters surveyed from December 31st to January 3rd. The poll was conducted by The Strategy Group, a DC based consulting and polling firm. The other two candidates in the race – Houston state Senator Joan Huffman and former DOJ lawyer Aaron Reitz – came in at 7% and 4%, respectively.
Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham has joined the growing list of state leaders that have endorsed Republican challenger Nate Sheets over incumbent Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller. Last week, Gov. Abbott gave his endorsement to Sheets, joining several members of the state Senate and major agriculture trade groups who are supporting the challenger. Buckingham said she feels the relationship between the Department of Agriculture and the legislature is beyond repair under Miller’s leadership, which has taken away the focus of helping the thousands of farm and ranch families in Texas. She said it is now time for a change in leadership at the agency that can return the agency to its original purpose.
After previously saying he would not endorse in the US Senate Republican primary, President Trump said over the weekend that he is now not ruling out giving an endorsement in the race. When home in Florida Saturday, the President told reporters that he’s “giving very serious thought” to giving an endorsement, but went on to say, “My problem is that I’m friendly with all of them.” No timetable was given on when a decision would be made on whether he would give an endorsement.
Former Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee won a decisive victory over former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards on Saturday in the special election for Congressional District 18 to fill the unexpired term of the late Congressman Sylvester Turner of Houston. Menefee won by a 68% to 32% margin and will now represent the district based in urban Houston that has been vacant for 11 months. This is the same district that was represented by Congresswoman Shelia Jackson Lee for 30 years before she died in 2024. Menefee is also running in the March primary for the full two-year term against Congressman Al Green, who chose to run in Congressional District 18 instead of his current Congressional District 9, which was redrawn by the legislature last summer to be more likely to elect a Republican. Turnout in the special election was incredibly low. Only 13,675 turned out in a district that is home to over 700,000 residents and has 381,000 registered voters.
What’s Next??
The primary election is just 25 days away. Early voting starts February 17th.
With the letter from the chamber leaders requesting interim study requests, we now have a timetable on when interim charges may be issued, which should be shortly after the primary election.
The first interim hearing will be on February 10th, when the House Natural Resources Committee holds a hearing to discuss management of groundwater and aquifer supply.
In the meantime, the Senate could begin hearings soon on the interim issues discussed above.