Here’s a quick recap of what happened over the last week:
Early Voting Starts Tuesday
Believe it or not, primary election day is just 18 days away. We won’t miss the endless commercials and mailers from the candidates and will finally see who wins or is going to a runoff. What’s noteworthy about this election cycle is that we will definitely have several new statewide officeholders, including a new state Attorney General, a new Comptroller, and possibly new representation in the US Senate. Many of you will have a new member of Congress to represent you due to the newly drawn Congressional districts.
Early voting runs from Tuesday, February 17th through Friday, February 27th. During that time, you can vote at any early polling place in your county. Go to https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/voter/county.shtml for the nearest early voting location in your county. You can also check your voter registration status here: https://goelect.txelections.civixapps.com/ivis-mvp-ui/#/login
Many of the races will have runoffs, which is required when no candidate gets at least 50% of the vote. Looking ahead, the runoff date for the primary election is Tuesday, May 26th, the day after Memorial Day. The runoff winners from each party go on to represent their party in the November election.
House Natural Resources Committee Begins Water Studies
Water has been one of the most pressing policy issues in Texas for years, shaped by a combination of population growth, recurring droughts, competing regional demands, and aging infrastructure. Texas is facing long-term challenges in ensuring sustainable water supplies for agriculture, industry, growing urban centers, and rural communities. Previous legislative sessions have seen major investments approved– including a multi-billion-dollar plan to expand water infrastructure, new supply sources, and conservation programs– but lawmakers have failed to agree on how to spend or prioritize the funds. The most recent round of funds that were approved are for future projects that will be subject to approval by the Water Development Board; while they do address future infrastructure, development, and improvement needs, more focus needs to be placed on addressing the increasing and immediate supply needs.
Groundwater, or water stored underground in aquifers, is especially crucial for much of Texas; it supplies more than half of the state’s total water use. With continued development and heavy agricultural use, there are growing concerns about increasing declines in major aquifers and the sustainability of current pumping levels without stronger regulation, better data, and innovative recharge strategies. Since this hearing was conducted during the interim period, no specific legislation or legislative proposals were considered. Committee members focused on foundational science and policy questions that will shape how lawmakers are approaching proposals to be considered during the next legislative session. Committee members heard overwhelmingly about the ongoing drought conditions across Texas that remain widespread and intensifying. This added urgency to the discussion on groundwater sustainability and future planning. The agenda was focused on long-term sustainability of aquifers, groundwater regulation, and management.
- Current Drought Conditions & Water Scarcity: According to the most recent US Drought Monitor, approximately 68% of Texas (or 181,800 square miles) have been experiencing drought conditions, with an additional 28% classified as “abnormally dry”. The drought categories range from moderate to extreme, with severe and extreme drought impacting large swaths of surface water and soil moisture across the state. This current period is part of a multi-year dry pattern that has expanded within recent months. The Texas Water Development Board reports that drought is increasing steadily– around 30% of the state three months ago to 63% in drought conditions in January. Extremely dry conditions affect nearly 15% of the state, growing weekly. Recent lack of rain coupled with higher-than-average temperatures is deepening drought severity statewide.
- Aquifer Conditions and Sustainability: Experts and stakeholders testified about the current conditions of key Texas aquifers, including the Edwards Aquifer and others that support rural and urban users alike. Presentations drew on recent research and reports, like findings from the Texas Groundwater Summit and data from the Texas Water Development Board. They highlighted areas where water levels have already declined or are fluctuating significantly; this was a technical but critical overview to inform future policy decisions around groundwater use. Data points to Texas potentially facing an annual water shortage of roughly 3.1 million acre-feet by 2070, about 15 times larger than shortages in 2020 due to population growth and demand increases. The Ogallala Aquifer, the largest source of groundwater in the state and nation, is projected to experience up to a 50% decline in groundwater levels between 2020 and 2070 without significant interventions. Other key aquifers are expected to experience decline over the same period.
- Groundwater Regulations & Management Challenges: Committee members heard from groups involved in advising and managing groundwater, such as the Texas Groundwater Protection Committee and Groundwater Conservation Districts. Testimony emphasized the need for better regulatory clarity, improved monitoring, and updated legal frameworks that reflect modern water use reality. Issues like high-capacity pumping and the difficulty of matching current laws to science-based conservation strategies were highlights of the discussions.
- Border Region Water & Wastewater Issues: Because of Texas’s geography, water supply and wastewater treatment have posed significant challenges in border communities. Request for coordination with federal groups and environmental boards was a feature of this portion of the hearing, revealing the multi-jurisdictional nature of water planning in those areas.
- Groundwater Storage & Recharge Opportunities: Panelists presented on aquifer storage and recovery options. There were strategies to store excess surface water underground during wet periods for later use as one potential response to variability in rainfall and drought risk. Surface water trends show a moderate role in the future supply, but ongoing drought stress– including extreme shortage like below-5% reservoir levels– points to the necessity of diversified strategies beyond surface shortage. Surface water (rivers, lakes, and reservoirs) also accounted for 42% of Texas’s water use in 2019 and are projected to contribute about 46% of total water supply by 2070. Some Texas surface reservoirs have reached historic lows– Medina Lake was reported at just 4.4% full as of February 6, 2026. This reflects a broader interest at the Capitol in innovative solutions beyond surface reservoir construction.
Data gaps remain a concern, however, as multiple speakers noted that many groundwater districts lack the resources to collect the scientific data needed for sound permitting and management decisions. There are ongoing discussions about how much regulatory authority the state should have versus local groundwater conservation districts. The underlying driver of this hearing: concern over sustained water scarcity and drought preparation, echoes historical patterns in Texas water policy. Figures are illustrating that Texas is not just experiencing dry spells, but a persistent, broad area of drought with implications for groundwater recharge rates, surface reservoir levels, crop yields, livestock operations, and municipal supplies. This is why, whether it was broader region issues or cross-district groundwater basins, stakeholders stressed that piecemeal planning is not sufficient. Regional and statewide coordination will be the hallmark of successful water policy.
US Senate – The Republicans
A poll released Monday shows Attorney General Ken Paxton increasing his lead over incumbent US Senator John Cornyn. The University of Houston/Hobby School of Public Affairs survey shows Paxton as the favorite of the 550 likely Republican primary voters with 38%, compared to 31% for Cornyn. Houston Congressman Wesley Hunt was the choice of just 17% of those surveyed. The poll that was conducted from January 20th through the 31st also shows Paxton leading both Democratic candidates in a hypothetical general election matchup. The poll shows just 12% undecided.
This continues the streak for Paxton of leading in virtually all polls released concerning this race. What’s more, is that Paxton has spent virtually nothing on advertising, relying on his favored status among the most conservative and partisan primary voters. This compares to the nearly $50 million that has been spent on Cornyn’s behalf to try and boost his conservative credentials. There is some good news for Cornyn, who was finally able to break the 30% barrier, something he has never done in previous polls. This poll also shows Cornyn pulling away from Hunt. Other recent surveys have shown Hunt and Cornyn in a virtual tie for second place.
And now with less than a month to go before the primary election, a Super PAC tied to Paxton announced they will spend $3 million in advertising in attacks against Hunt. The PAC – Conservatives for Texas – was formed in January and will launch an ad claiming that Hunt did not vote for Trump in last year’s election – which Hunt denies – and ties him to controversial and progressive Congresswoman Alexandra Ocasio Cortez on a series of votes in Congress. In Hunt’s defense, this is possible due to the fact that numerous pieces of legislation routinely pass the US House without opposition from any member. The ad calls Hunt a RINO – Republican In Name Only – that “Texas conservatives cannot trust.”
The strategy of Paxton attacking Hunt makes sense from Paxton’s standpoint. Between Hunt and Cornyn, Hunt is the more conservative and the Paxton camp would feel more confident with a head-to-head matchup against Cornyn in the runoff. Plus, historically, incumbents generally perform poorly when forced into a runoff.
The Paxton campaign also received a major boost this week when he received the endorsement of Turning Point Action, the political arm of Turning Point USA. This is the nonprofit organization — started by the late Charlie Kirk – that advocates for conservative politics on high school and college campuses. Kirk was assassinated last September while speaking at Utah Valley University. Since Kirk’s death, the organization has seen tremendous growth in Texas. Gov. Abbott and Lt. Governor Dan Patrick created an initiative in December to bring a Turning Point chapter to every public school, college, and university campus in the state.
US Senate – The Democrats
The same poll from the Hobby School of Public Affairs shows Dallas Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett leading state Rep. James Talarico by a 47% to 39% margin. Just as on the Republican side, this poll shows a clear front runner when several other previous polls showed a tighter race. The best news for Crockett in this survey shows her leading among Black and Latino voters. Several previous polls showed Talarico leading among Latino voters, but this poll showed Crockett leading that group by a 46% to 37% margin.
The Talarico camp is feeling the momentum swing against them. A Super PAC tied to Talarico – Lone Star Rising – has just begun a $3.8 million advertising campaign focusing on Crockett’s inability to defeat the Republican candidate in November. The ad calls Crockett as “the Republicans’ candidate of choice”, and stresses that Talarico would fare better in November against whomever the Republicans nominate.
This development further dissolves the spirit and commitment to unity that the two pledged during their debate in early January. Since then, allegations of racist comments by Talarico towards former Democratic candidate Colin Allred have surfaced that have clearly hurt Talarico’s efforts and led to questions among the partisan Democratic primary voters. The most recent poll referenced above clearly shows more confidence in Crockett by the primary voters, with Talarico being given no choice except to focus negatively on Crockett.
This week, the fury over Talarico’s comments intensified as Allred has now demanded an apology from Talarico. In speaking to CBS News earlier this week, Allred – who had only previously addressed the comments on X – said, “there needs to be an apology, and some attempt to recognize that there are certain things…that came across in a way that was offensive to many others.” Talarico maintains the comments were a “mischaracterization of a private conversation” and that he was describing Allred’s method of campaigning as mediocre, not his life and history of service. Allred went on to say in the interview that he and Talarico have spoken by phone since the revelations of the comments and that he offered Talarico a chance to apologize, and he declined to do so.
Notes from AG Republican Primary
The four-way race for state Attorney General has been overshadowed by the race for US Senate, but it is a hotly contested race with four viable and well-funded candidates. The race is open for the first time since 2014 with the departure of incumbent Ken Paxton to run for US Senate. The most recent poll in the race — the same survey referenced above by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs — shows Dripping Springs Congressman Chip Roy 10 points clear of the field, a position he has maintained throughout the race. Roy was the favorite of 33% of the respondents, compared to 23% for state Senator Mayes Middleton of Galveston. Houston area state Senator Joan Huffman came in at 16%, and former DOJ attorney Aaron Reitz pulled up the rear with just 6%. With no candidate near the 50% threshold needed, this race is almost certainly headed for a runoff.
Reitz has consistently trailed the other three candidates throughout the campaign. In an attempt to boost his standing, he has released his first ad campaign that features the endorsement from incumbent AG Ken Paxton and ties the two together regarding their conservative views. Reitz has not been able to poll above 6% in any polls released thus far.
Reitz also made headlines this week when he said that if he is elected AG, he will work to revoke the citizenship of Texas House Democratic Caucus Chairman Gene Wu of Houston. Reitz cites a comment made by Wu during a 2024 interview in which he called on minority communities to unite in order to win elections since “they share the same oppressor”. Wu defends his comments as trying to demonstrate the division between the different minority communities. Reitz also went on to claim – without specific evidence – that Wu lied on his citizenship application and should therefore have his citizenship revoked.
The comments by Wu drew a firestorm of comments from other Republican elected officials at the time, including Reitz’s rival Chip Roy, who called on Wu to resign. None however have called on the revocation of Wu’s citizenship except for Reitz. Denaturalization is incredibly rare and can only happen if it is proven that the individual committed fraud while applying for citizenship or becomes affiliated with a terrorist organization after becoming a citizen.
Wu was born in China and emigrated to the US with his parents as a young child. He is an attorney and worked as a prosecutor in the Harris County District Attorney’s office before being elected to the Texas House in 2012. His wife, Miya Shay is a reporter for the Houston ABC affiliate. They have two children and live in the Sharpstown area of Houston.
FAA Closes El Paso Airport Due to Cartel Drone Threats
Recent reports of a temporary disruption at El Paso International Airport tied to suspected cartel drone activity have now drawn national attention; the airspace has been reopened after the FAA shut it down for a few hours overnight on Tuesday amid an announcement that there would be no flights for 10 days. The White House announced that the unusual closure was triggered by Mexican cartel drones breaching US airspace, while industry sources say it was due to an impasse with the Department of Defense over the use of unmanned military aircraft. Airports will periodically close due to weather or technical issues, but disruptions connected to unmanned aerial systems (drones), represent a different category of risk. They are especially concerning to the administration due to the closeness to the US-Mexico border, since the El Paso region sits along one of the busiest and most heavily monitored international crossings in the country.
The El Paso International Airport reported 14 cancelled and 13 delayed flights on Wednesday. El Paso Mayor Renard Johnson said that there was “chaos” on the ground. He added, “You cannot restrict airspace over a major city without coordination with the city, the airport, the hospitals, and the community leadership. That failure to communicate is unacceptable.” It was also reported that because of the closure, a significant amount of surgical equipment destined for city hospitals was re-routed to Las Cruces, New Mexico. Local officials seem to be dissatisfied with the administration’s explanation of the situation, with US Rep. Veronica Escobar also saying that “The statement by the administration that this shutdown was linked to a Mexican cartel drone that came into US airspace– that is not my understanding.” She also reports that none of the local officials in El Paso, or El Paso International Airport, were notified of any shutdown decisions by the FAA.
Drone usage by transnational criminal organizations has increased significantly specifically over the past decade, but drone incursions are not unusual and have occurred for years. Cartels operating along the border have previously used drones for surveillance, intelligence gathering, and in some cases, to transport contraband across short distances. Federal agencies, such as US Customs and Border Protection, have warned that drones are becoming an increasingly sophisticated tool for criminal enterprises– making the situation very notable. It is not merely the presence of drones that raises such cause for concern, but instead their proximity to controlled airspace around a commercial airport– an area subject to very strict federal aviation regulations. When unauthorized drones are detected near an airport, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) can require ground stops or temporary flight restrictions for safety reasons.
Commercial aircraft operating in and out of El Paso International Airport share airspace with military and federal operations due to the region’s strategic location, so even a small drone can cause a big collision risk. Precautionary closures and flight delays were implemented quickly while authorities investigated and secured the airspace. From a broader security perspective, the incident underscores the evolving challenges posed by drones in border regions. Drones can be deployed remotely, are difficult to trace, and can be operated outside of US jurisdiction, unlike traditional smuggling methods. Federal law enforcement agencies have been expanding counter-drone technology and coordination efforts, but legal limitations on drone interdiction authority remain complex.
Incidents such as this one may prompt increased surveillance around border-region airports and spark legislative discussions regarding drone interdiction authority. For businesses operating within border logistics, aviation, or cross-border trade, awareness of changing security measures is important for planning. For travelers, disruptions are likely to remain temporary, but they may become more frequent as authorities continue to respond aggressively to unauthorized drone activity.
AG Ken Paxton Brings Lawsuit Against CAIR & The Muslim Brotherhood
On February 5th, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed a civil lawsuit in state court seeking to shut down CAIR’s operations in Texas. The lawsuit also names several CAIR affiliates along with the Muslim Brotherhood, seeking orders that would name them terrorist or transnational criminal organizations under Texas law. The orders would also prohibit them from operation, fundraising, recruiting, owning property, engaging in advocacy activities in the state, and enjoin them from conducting any organizational business in Texas. According to the attorney general’s press release, Paxton’s office is claiming that CAIR is essentially the US arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, and that its ties to extremist activity justify a total ban on its operations in Texas.
Under both federal and state law, the authority to designate a group as a foreign terrorist organization has typically rested with the federal government, not state officials. The US State Department will periodically designate such groups after an extensive intelligence review– a process that has significant procedural protections. A state attorney general attempting a direct ban based on alleged terrorist ties is unusual and very likely to face major constitutional challenges. This legal action against CAIR fits directly into a pattern of high-profile culture-war cases pursued by Paxton and other Texas Republican leaders. Other litigation has previously pertained to property/land use restrictions on Islamic organizations, suits against immigrant-oriented legal aid programs, and lawsuits challenging perceived religious discrimination or immigration.
This lawsuit is significant due to its very broad legal ramifications, as it is not a typical lawsuit for damages; it is seeking to legally erase a major advocacy organization from operating in Texas. What is essentially a state-ordered dissolution and ban, is rare and far beyond standard regulatory enforcement, including the revoking of the ability to fundraise or own property. Paxton’s actions are coming amid broader national and state conversations about civil liberties, Islamophobia, government authority, and freedom of speech/association protections. Similar actions have faced legal rejection. Paxton’s office failed to shut down another civic group called the Jolt Initiative (Latino voter registration group) when a federal judge found the state did not provide legally sufficient evidence.
Critics say that this lawsuit echoes other unpopular actions by state officials targeting religious and civil rights groups based on political disagreements, particularly over issues like criticism of foreign policy. CAIR has strongly rejected the lawsuit, calling it a “frivolous, politically motivated anti-Muslim political stunt” that strongly mischaracterizes the group’s mission and improperly targets them. They are also arguing that the lawsuit is wasting state resources as it is unlikely to succeed in court. Civil rights advocates have also criticized these legal strategies as overreach that undermines freedoms of speech, religion, and association.
New School Vouchers Application Process
After passage of the school voucher legislation in the 2025 session, Texas has launched the Texas Education Freedom Account for the 2026-27 school year, providing state funds to families to be used toward private school tuition, homeschooling, tutoring, instructional materials, and other approved educational expenses. For decades, Texas– like most states– has primarily funded education through traditional public school districts, with limited alternatives like charter/private schools. The new program is intended to support a broader national movement toward school choice, where public funds follow students where they go rather than remaining only within the public school systems.
Texas lawmakers have historically debated school vouchers for years without statewide adoptions, mainly due to rural legislators and public education advocates’ opposition to the idea. However, the dynamic has recently changed; the policy shift places Texas alongside states such as Arizona and Florida, which have already implemented broad ESA-style programs. There is a formal application process administered by the state, which determines which students are able to participate and how funds are allocated. Participation in the voucher program is optional, could be competitive if applications are higher than allocated funding, and governed by eligibility/priority rules set by the state.
Families apply through a state-run online portal overseen by the TEA, opened to the public on February 4, 2026, with a deadline to submit applications by March 17, 2026. Funding notification will begin in early April of this year, notifying families on whether they have been approved, with disbursements beginning on July 1, 2026. Applicants must submit documentation verifying Texas residency, the student’s age, identity, household income, and– if applicable– special education status. If demand exceeds available funding, the state will prioritize students with disabilities and students from lower-income households. Within those categories, however, selections will be made through a lottery. As of yesterday, more than 46,000 applications have been submitted.
Of the students who receive approval, families will receive an award amount based on the student’s educational setting. The entire voucher program has an initial total funding of $1 billion for the two-year budget cycle ending August 31, 2027. Experts project the program’s costs could rise to between $4.5 billion and $7.9 billion annually by 2030. Private school students will receive around $10,500 on average per year, students with disabilities can receive up to $30,000 per year, and homeschooled students receiving an average of $2,000 per year. The funds are approved to be used for a variety of education costs outside of tuition if necessary or available. They will be distributed to the family’s school of choice and begin distribution ahead of or at the start of the school year to align with enrollment times.
Participation in the voucher program does not guarantee admission to a private school, families must apply independently and be accepted by participating schools. Many of them have their own deadlines, admissions criteria, and tuition requirements– including deposits and contracts. Additionally, not all private schools or education providers participate in the voucher program, so families must confirm eligibility before applying. For families, this program introduces new opportunities, but also new responsibilities, timelines, and decisions. For school districts and policymakers: reshaping longstanding debates about public education funding and access. Proper understanding and preparation of the process can make the difference between a smooth transition and unexpected complications.
Political Notes
Likely Democratic gubernatorial nominee state Rep. Gina Hinojosa released a poll yesterday showing her in a statistical tie with incumbent Governor Greg Abbott. The poll was done by GBAO Strategies, a Washington based polling firm that works exclusively with Democratic candidates and organizations. The poll surveyed 1,000 likely Texas voters from January 26th-February 3rd. The survey showed Abbott leading Hinojosa by a 46% to 43% margin, which is within the poll’s margin of error. Hinojosa also touts numbers in the poll that show her leading Abbott by 16 points among self-described independents.
Other interesting numbers from the UH/Hobby School poll released this week. Former state Senator Don Huffines continues to hold the lead in the race for state Comptroller. Huffines comes in at 33%, with Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick at 21% and acting Comptroller Kelly Hancock at 13%. Hancock was appointed by Gov. Abbott in June after the resignation of former Comptroller Glenn Hegar. 58% of the respondents said they did not know enough about Hancock to have an opinion.
Even though challenger Nate Sheets has received several high-profile endorsements – including Gov. Abbott – he is trailing incumbent Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller by 30 points. Miller has a 48% to 18% advantage over Sheets, with nearly 70% of the respondents claiming unfamiliarity with Sheets.
President Trump weighed in on two more Congressional races this week. In the Central Texas based Congressional District 21, Trump endorsed former major league baseball player Mark Teixeira in the crowded field of 12 Republicans vying to replace Chip Roy, who is running for Texas Attorney General. And in the newly drawn north Texas Congressional District 32, Trump endorsed attorney Jace Yarbrough, who narrowly lost a runoff to Brent Hagenbuch in 2024 for Texas Senate District 30.
President Trump has endorsed all 19 Republican Congressional incumbents running for reelection except for Houston Congressman Dan Crenshaw, who is in a primary battle against state Rep. Steve Toth of Conroe. Crenshaw, San Antonio Congressman Tony Gonzales and Round Rock Congressman John Carter are three incumbents that are in the most hotly contested primary challenges.
After being soundly defeated in the special election runoff for Congressional District 18, Amanda Edwards has suspended her primary election campaign for the Democratic nomination for the full term. Because she has already filed, her name will still appear on the ballot. That leaves the winner of the special election – former Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee – facing off against Congressman Al Green. Menefee has been sworn in and will finish the term after the death of Sylvester Turner last March. Green currently represents Congressional District 9 but chose to run in CD 18 after the lines were redrawn by the legislature last summer. CD 18 was drawn to heavily favor the election of a Democrat, so the winner of the March primary will undoubtedly be the eventual winner of the November election and will then serve the full two-year term.
What’s Next??
The primary election is just 18 days away. Early voting starts this Tuesday, February 17th.
With the letter from the chamber leaders requesting interim study requests, we now have a timetable on when interim charges may be issued, which should be shortly after the primary election.
In the meantime, the Senate could begin hearings soon on the interim issues that have already been given to Senate committees.