Here’s a quick recap of what happened over the last week:
Huge Democratic Turnout in Early Voting
Early voting is underway for the March 3rd primary election. And so far, the Democrats are turning out in significantly higher numbers than Republicans. According to VoteHub, through the first three days of early voting, 196,751 ballots have been cast in the Democratic primary compared to 180,066 for the Republicans. Compared to the 2022 – the last time all statewide offices in Texas were contested – Democratic turnout is up by 214% for Democrats and 124% for Republicans at the same point in the early voting period.
Given that primaries typically draw far fewer than the total registered voters, early voting figures with strong starts are being monitored as a signal of higher overall engagement this cycle. So far this year, turnout has also been higher than in 2024, which is highly unusual since this is a non-Presidential election year. Specifically, Nueces County in the Corpus Christi area has reported more than 4,600 early votes cast so far as of February 19th. Indications from Kaufman County (northeast Texas) show notable early voting patterns where Democrat voters outpaced Republican turnout, while exact numbers have not been published. Harris County already has unofficial voting roster reports showing 42,992 total combined ballots at one large polling site. Dallas County reports a 12,302 Democratic turnout compared to a 3,786 Republican turnout, a tripling in voter turnout in comparison to 2024 for Democrats with only 4,418 ballots cast on the first day. Tarrant County, known for being a battleground area, had an 8,355 Democratic turnout and 6,512 Republican turnout in the first day of early voting.
These numbers indicate meaningful activity in large urban precincts, showing – at least so far – a higher level of enthusiasm among the Democratic voters as compared to Republicans. Historically, about 17% of registered voters turn out during the early voting period. At this pace, the turnout percentage will be considerably higher.
Democrats Coordinated Campaign
Since no Democrat has won a statewide office in Texas since 1994, everyone is asking how or if this year will be any different. And just for reference, 1994 was the year that George W. Bush defeated Ann Richards for Governor. In that year, Democrat Bob Bullock was reelected as Lt. Governor and Democrat Dan Morales was reelected as state Attorney General.
With that looming – and legitimate – question, the Democrats this week announced their coordinated campaign designed to help all Democratic ballots on the ballot, calling it Texas Together. The groups funding the effort are the Texas Democratic Party and its political arm, the Texas Majority PAC, and Beto O’Rourke’s Powered by People. The effort has a budget of $30 million to spend leading up to the general election for polling, data analysis, message testing, and turnout strategy. Other details of the effort include hiring of 300 field staffers, open field offices to engage and encourage turnout in all parts of the state, and partner with similar interests for phone banking, block walking, and voter registration.
This is a similar effort to the failed 2024 Texas Blueprint. However, the resources dedicated in 2024 were significantly less than the $30 million planned for Texas Together. The infrastructure the party is attempting to build is what they have been lacking for the past 30 years. Turnout among the traditionally Democratic constituencies has been woefully low compared to Republican turnout since the 1994 election. Texas Democratic Party Chair Kendall Scudder defends this year’s effort as more robust and better organized due to increased funds available through the Texas Majority PAC, which is primarily funded by Democratic megadonor George Soros.
US Senate – The Republicans
President Trump continues to say he is not ready to endorse any candidate in the race for the Republican nomination for US Senate. In an interview aboard Air Force One earlier this week, the President said, “I like all three…they’ve all supported me and I know you’re supposed to pick one. So, we’ll see what happens, but I support all three.”
With his poll numbers continuing to sag, incumbent John Cornyn is staying with his negative campaign theme, this time targeting Houston Congressman Wesley Hunt. Desperate to make the runoff, the Cornyn camp is now focusing on Hunt in an attempt to solidify at least a 2nd place finish among the three major candidates that would put Cornyn in the runoff – most likely with Ken Paxton.
Over the weekend a Cornyn surrogate levied allegations on X that in 2016 Hunt had his provisional ballot rejected because he was not a registered voter at the time. The allegations went further and are more serious. The Cornyn campaign is alleging Hunt lied to election judges as to why his voter registration was not in the system when he tried to cast a ballot. Hunt’s claim at the time is that he had just been discharged from military service one month earlier. But the Cornyn camp is saying they have proof that Hunt was discharged in 2012, thus accusing Hunt of lying on a sworn statement. The post on X goes on to accuse Hunt of voter fraud and calls on Hunt to admit he lied on the sworn statement. The post on X contained images of Hunt’s personal information, including his address. Hunt has once again responded by filing a police report against Cornyn’s surrogate alleging a violation of federal law.
The squabble between Cornyn and Hunt indicates the two are fighting for a place in the runoff. Ken Paxton continues to lead the field, and at a kickoff event for early voting this week Paxton declared “my numbers look as good as they ever have”. Paxton went on to tell the assembled crowd that “John Cornyn’s at risk of finishing third…he’s in serious trouble of not even making the runoff.” What continues to amaze is the fact that Cornyn and his affiliates have spent nearly $60 million in advertising so far, and Paxton has spent virtually nothing on advertising, claiming he is saving his resources for the runoff, and will continue to rely on his favored status with the hardline conservative voter to carry him into the runoff.
But give Cornyn credit for continuing to fight and display his support from the more moderate and traditional wing of the party. Earlier this week, he appeared at a rally with former Governor Rick Perry. Perry addressed the crowd at a restaurant in Austin saying “Cornyn has served the state admirably, ethically, and morally”, taking a swipe at Paxton for his past legal and ethical lapses on which Cornyn has focused during the campaign. Perry also chairs the Lone Star Freedom Project, a PAC that has so far spent $18 million on Cornyn’s behalf. Perry committed to spend “whatever we need” to see that Cornyn wins the primary.
The Cornyn campaign also announced another $1.6 million advertising buy slated to air next week paid for by the Texans for a Conservative Majority PAC.
One last note on this race. After voting early in Austin on Tuesday, Gov. Abbott was asked if he will make an endorsement in the Senate race. He declined to do so, saying he is friends with all three candidates.
US Senate – The Democrats
The Democratic side of the race this week focused on the controversy over the recent public disclosure by late-night host Stephen Colbert that CBS declined to air his interview with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico on The Late Show. The network cited concerns that the segment could trigger the Federal Communications Commission’s “equal time” rule– a rule that requires broadcasters to provide comparable airtime to opposing candidates if one is given access. Colbert stated that network lawyers informed him in “no uncertain terms” that Talarico could not appear on broadcast TV that night, and that he could not even mention the cancellation on air. Colbert instead conducted the interview and posted it on YouTube, since online platforms are not subject to the same regulations; the video quickly went viral and has drawn millions of views.
The “equal time” rule is part of the FCC’s long-standing regulations that require broadcast outlets to offer equivalent airtime to all legally qualified candidates of a race if one is featured. Historically, talk shows and late-night interviews have always been treated as “bona fide news”, being exempt from the rule. However, new FCC guidance under Trump appointed Chairman Brendan Carr reversed that exception, bringing such appearances under closer scrutiny. The shift is what CBS cited as the regulatory risk: airing Talarico could obligate the network to give comparable opportunities to his primary opponent — Jasmine Crockett.
On the show, Colbert said that he was told by CBS lawyers that Talarico’s appearance “could not appear on broadcast”, nor could he say that fact on air. In protest, he broke with the direction and described the situation to his audience. Talarico has also used his online version of the interview to make a pointed statement about free speech and political pressure, saying: “This is the party that ran against cancel culture, and now they are trying to control what we watch, what we say, and what we read… A threat to any part of our First Amendment rights is a threat to all of our First Amendment rights.”
CBS officials have since pushed back on the notion that the interview was “banned”. In statements the network has released, they say that their legal team provided guidance about the potential implications of airing a candidate interview under the FCC’s equal time rules– not an outright prohibition. The network notes that options were offered, such as providing equal time to other candidates or structuring the broadcast differently. Ultimately the full interview was routed to YouTube instead. CBS’s framing emphasizes legal caution rather than editorial censorship, but Colbert stands strongly in his sharply different description of being told, outrightly, not to air or discuss the situation.
“I think that Donald Trump is worried that we’re about to flip Texas blue,” noted Talarico in his opening appearance on the show. Colbert and free-speech advocates argue the network’s fear of FCC enforcement– whether real or exaggerated– amounts to censorship and chills political expression. FCC Chief Brendan Carr has denied agency censorship, emphasizing that broadcasters still had options under the rules and that compliance is straightforward if other candidates’ equal time is offered. This dispute has erupted just as early voting began in the Texas Democratic Primary, magnifying its potential influence on public perception.
Talarico’s opponent – Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett – quipped that the entire situation gave Talarico a boost but had no issue with the interview being posted on YouTube. She also complimented CBS for taking the interview off the air, and said proof of the boost given to Talarico was that it received 5.2 million views on YouTube.
Not to let a good scandal go to waste, the Talarico campaign announced they raised $2.4 million in the 24 hours immediately following the news of the Late Show announcing it would not air the interview.
Republican AG Candidates Debate
The four candidates for the Republican nomination for Texas Attorney General took part in their one and only debate on Tuesday in Dallas. There is little to no difference in the political philosophies and ideologies of the four candidates. So as expected, each candidate touted their conservative credentials and vowed to continue the actions of current AG Ken Paxton to prioritize hardline issues including border security and stopping Sharia Law in Texas.
Dripping Springs Congressman Chip Roy has led the field according to most polls done for the race. However, Galveston state Senator Mayes Middleton has closed the gap with his self-funded campaign. Middleton has poured nearly $15 million of his own money into the race and has risen from single digits to within 10 points of Roy in the most recent polls. Middleton is an attorney but has little to no legal experience. His campaign ads are focusing on his commitment to further the MAGA agenda if elected AG.
Former DOJ lawyer Aaron Reitz – shown to be in last place in all polls – has made the most headlines recently with some desperate attempts at making headlines. He focused on his endorsement from Paxton and qualifications as an attorney in the DOJ while state Senator Joan Huffman touted her experience as a former prosecutor and district judge – along with her role as Chair of the Senate Finance Committee.
No candidate is expected to achieve the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff, and this debate appeared to do little to change the minds of the voters.
AG Ken Paxton Launches Investigations Into School Districts Over ICE Walkouts
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton recently announced that his office is launching formal investigations into three major Texas public school districts — Northeast Independent School District, Dallas Independent School District, and Manor Independent School District — over their handling of student walkouts and protests against federal immigration enforcement (ICE). These probes come on the heels of a similar investigation into the Austin Independent School District earlier in the month. His office is alleging that district administrators and faculty may have “facilitated” or “orchestrated” the protests, also claiming that they have failed to ensure student safety and actively allowed classroom disruption.
Over recent weeks, hundreds of students across Texas have staged walkouts to protest the actions of US Immigrations and Customs Enforcement– events that intensified after national incidents involving federal immigration operations. The protests have occurred in multiple cities, involving Austin, Dallas, San Antonio, Waco, and others. State leadership, including Governor Abbott, have publicly backed investigations and urged scrutiny of district responses. Abbott has repeatedly emphasized that schools must prioritize classroom time and education, threatening funding cuts if districts are found to have supported the protest activity. The Texas Education Agency has also previously issued warnings that districts facilitating walkouts that could lead to state intervention.
Paxton’s office has sent letters to these school districts demanding documentation on the following:
- Policies governing how and when students can leave campus
- Rules on excuse vs unexcused absences
- Security protocols related to supervising students during protests
- Internal emails and communications between staff about the protests
- Evidence of any public funds used in support of the activities
The stated goal is to determine whether state laws have been violated or whether school officials have acted outside of their authority by appearing to facilitate/endorse protests.
The districts under investigation have denied wrongdoing and have stated that they are cooperating with the AG’s office. Manor ISD said it expects the review will show that staff has followed district procedures and TEA guidance, including prioritizing attendance and student safety. Northeast ISD noted that staff were instructed to remain neutral and focus on safety, not to encourage or discourage participation, and that disciplinary guidance was communicated in advance.
Civil rights groups, such as the ACLU of Texas, have openly criticized the investigations, asserting that Paxton has not identified any actual laws violated. They argue that these probes risk suppressing students’ First Amendment rights to freedom of expression. The investigations raise complex questions about the role of school officials in responding to student activism, as well as the line between maintaining order and allegedly facilitating the protest activity. Schools could face increased scrutiny of routine policies like excused absences and supervision, particularly regarding politically charged activities. The developing situation reflects how state officials are responding to broader national debates on immigration policy and civil liberties, and it could have serious implications for how student protest activity is handled moving forward.
Agriculture Commission Candidate Controversy
In the race for Texas Agriculture Commissioner, incumbent Sid Miller is being challenged by honeybee farmer Nate Sheets, who has received the endorsement of Gov. Abbott. Miller is still leading in the polls, but Sheets had been enjoying a certain degree of momentum – which has been recently stunted.
This week, several surrogates and supporters of the incumbent began to feature on social media previous podcasts on which Sheets admitted to an extra marital affair while working in the Christian ministry group I Am Second. While acknowledging the affair, Sheets attributes being the victim of sexual abuse as a child as the reason for his “lifelong struggles”. The Sheets campaign has issued a recent statement that again acknowledges the issues and credits his Christian faith as the answer for the impacts of childhood trauma and his continued struggles.
The Miller campaign issued a statement in response, saying that “despite media inquiries, the Miller campaign will not be speaking further about Sheets’ addictions…”
Political Notes
Gov. Abbott is running his first ad campaign of this election cycle. With no credible primary opposition, Abbott’s ads are attacking Democrats with a national profile, including New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and former Presidential nominee Kamala Harris. The ads are running in mostly rural parts of the state and are intended to increase turn out among voters outside of urban and suburban areas. The Abbott campaign spent $1.3 million on the ads that will run through election day.
Freshman Republican state Rep. Wes Virdell of Brady hit the airwaves this week to campaign against fellow Republican House member Ken King of Canadian. Virdell appears in two commercials in support of John Browning of Plainview, who is challenging the veteran King in the sprawling panhandle district. King chairs the powerful House State Affairs Committee and is facing his first serious primary challenge in years. Virdell apparently saw several of his bills die in the committee last session and is taking out his frustration by helping King’s opponent.
In the hotly contested Republican primary battle for the newly drawn Congressional District 9 in southeast Harris County, President Trump has endorsed Alexandra Mealer over state Rep. Briscoe Cain. Mealer was the Republican nominee who narrowly lost a challenge to Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo in 2022. Trump says he favors Mealer due to her military and business background. Cain gives up his safe House seat to run for the Congressional seat and can still tout the endorsement of Gov. Abbott. Mealer has been shown to have a slight lead in the polls, and the Trump endorsement could give her the support needed to avoid a runoff.
Republican San Antonio Congressman Tony Gonzales – already in a tough primary battle – is having to explain strong allegations that he had an affair with former staff member Regina Santos-Aviles, who committed suicide last year. Both the Congressman and Santos-Aviles were married to other people at the time of the alleged affairs. Another former staffer told the San Antonio Express News that Santos-Aviles admitted to him that she and the Congressman had an affair, and that she became distraught when her husband found out and then the Congressman abruptly ended the relationship. Gonzales – while not specifically denying the allegations – criticized his opponent as politicizing the death of his former staffer. Gonzales is in a rematch with Brandon Herrera for the Republican nomination for Congressional District 23, covering areas from San Antonio south to the border region. Herrera is gun rights activist who lost by only 400 votes in 2024. Also, in light of these allegations, the Express News has rescinded their endorsement of Gonzales.
Republican Comptroller candidate Don Huffines is having to answer questions about his family’s purchase of a New Mexico ranch formerly owned by Jeffrey Epstein, four years after his death. The Huffines family established an LLC to purchase the property in 2023 for an undisclosed price, according to the Santa Fe New Mexican. The property was valued at $13.4 million for the 2023 tax rolls. Huffines has not responded to inquiries regarding the purchase. Through a spokesman, the Huffines campaign issued a statement that simply said Huffines never visited the property prior to the purchase.
What’s Next??
The primary election is just 11 days away. Early voting is underway and goes through next Friday.
With the letter from the chamber leaders requesting interim study requests, we now have a timetable on when interim charges may be issued, which should be shortly after the primary election.
In the meantime, the Senate could begin hearings soon on the interim issues that have already been given to Senate committees.