Here’s a quick recap of what happened over the last week:
Candidate Field Set for 2026 Election
The races for US Senate and all statewide offices for 2026 are set, as the filing period came to a close on Monday. On the Republican side for the US Senate, incumbent John Cornyn faces stiff opposition and finds himself as the underdog as he tries for his 5th term in the upper chamber. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has been leading in most polls with Houston Congressman Wesley Hunt gaining ground and even overtaking Cornyn in recent polling numbers. The question remains if President Trump will endorse a candidate in this race. Cornyn has had a rocky relationship with the President, even questioning Trump’s candidacy in 2024 after losing the race for President in 2020. Hunt and Paxton have been political allies of the President, but Paxton’s legal and personal troubles may cause Trump to forgo support for the AG.
Governor Greg Abbott will face no credible opposition in the Republican primary and will face the winner of the Democratic primary in November. The Democratic field is led by Austin state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, a progressive candidate who has publicly sparred with Abbott over his stance on private school vouchers. She will face Houston attorney Andrew White – the son of former Governor Mark White – and former Houston Congressman Chris Bell.
The one statewide candidate that will be heavily favored for reelection is Republican incumbent Dan Patrick. Seeking a fourth term leading the Texas Senate, Patrick will face no opposition in the Republican primary and is likely to face Austin state Rep. Vicki Goodwin in the general election. Goodwin is not known outside of her Austin district and has no legislative accomplishments to speak of.
Other Statewide Races
With incumbent Ken Paxton seeking the nomination for the US Senate, the race for Texas Attorney General is wide open. Several Republicans have filed to run, led by Congressman Chip Roy of Dripping Springs. Also in the race are state Senators Joan Huffman of Houston and Mayes Middleton of Galveston along with former Department of Justice attorney Aaron Reitz. Reitz has the endorsement of Paxton, but Congressman Roy has been leading by a wide margin in most polls.
On the Democratic side, state Senator Nathan Johnson of Dallas will face off against former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski. Jaworski ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination in 2022. This is Johnson’s first try at a statewide office.
The race for state Comptroller is also wide open. Incumbent Glenn Hegar resigned in June to become Chancellor of the Texas A&M System. Gov. Abbott appointed former state Senator Kelly Hancock as interim Comptroller, and he is seeking the job full time. With little name ID, Hancock is facing an uphill battle against Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick and Don Huffines of Dallas, the wealthy car dealer who unsuccessfully challenged Gov. Abbott in the 2022 Republican primary.
Republican incumbent Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller is facing a stiff challenge from Nate Sheets, a bee farmer who has gained the support of several agriculture related trade groups and members of the legislature. Miller is also seeking his fourth term.
Jasmine Crockett Joins Senate Race
After weeks of speculation, Dallas Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett joined the Democratic field in the race for US Senate this week. Crockett chose to take on the long shot odds of defeating a Republican in a statewide race as opposed to taking the safe route and running for reelection to her House seat. Crockett says she is inspired to fight the policies of President Trump and “chart a path into the future.” In her second term, Crockett has gained notoriety and become a rising star among the Democrats for her vocal opposition to President Trump and his supporters in Congress.
She will face state Rep. James Talarico of Austin in the Democratic primary. Talarico has also risen to notoriety in the state party through his vocal and ardent opposition to Republican priorities including private school voucher legislation and the newly drawn Congressional maps. Pencil in Crockett as the early favorite in the Democratic primary. Many polls show her leading as the race begins, including a survey released this morning by Texas Southern University that shows Crockett leading Talarico by a 51% to 43% margin among likely Democratic primary voters.
The winner will face the winner of the Republican primary between incumbent John Cornyn, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Houston Congressman Wesley Hunt.
Crockett’s decision to enter the US Senate race started a change in the outlook for the Dallas area Congressional seats. With Crockett’s entry, Colin Allred dropped out of the Senate race and will now run for Congressional District 33, based in Dallas. The district is currently represented by Marc Veasey, who has now decided to run for Tarrant County Judge. The Democrats in Tarrant County had been searching for a credible candidate to challenge first term Republican County Judge Tim O’Hare. Allred will face off against first term Democratic Congresswoman Julie Johnson of Farmers Branch, who switched from her current Congressional District 32 to run in CD 33. CD 32 was redrawn to significantly improve the chances of electing a Republican.
Confusing? Yes. But what you have in both parties are members searching for districts in which they can win.
Abbott, Patrick Present Competing Property Tax Proposals
To kick off his reelection campaign seeking his fourth term as Governor, Gov. Abbott unveiled a plan earlier this week to eliminate school property taxes for homeowners. Abbott wants the legislature to send a proposal to Texas voters asking them to abolish property taxes. Abbott says the state is collecting enough revenue to compensate for the lost revenue, thus easing the burden on homeowners to pay for public education.
The legislature has significantly cut property taxes over the last two sessions, thanks in part to a large budget surplus benefitting lawmakers. Voters have approved an increase in the homestead exemption, approved significant tax breaks for homeowners, and approved measures to severely restrict the amount of increases in year-to-year appraisals. The state has been able to make up the difference over the last two budget cycles, including a $51 million tab for property tax reduction passed in this session’s biennial budget.
According to the Legislative Budget Board, replacing all school property taxes in the state for the year 2023 would have cost the state $40 billion. In 2023, the state raised a total of $59 billion in all taxes. Without a significant shift in priorities or other sources of revenue, the state would be left with significantly fewer discretionary funds. In 2024, local districts collected $42 billion in property taxes.
These hard numbers have drawn skepticism regarding Abbott’s proposal, including Lt. Governor Dan Patrick. Patrick said in response to Abbott’s plan that to eliminate property taxes at the local level and have the state make up the difference, the state would have to raise the sales tax rate from the current 6.25% to 14%. Patrick qualifies his skepticism by agreeing with Abbott that property taxes do need to be reduced, but there is a better way to do it.
Patrick is proposing to further increase the homestead exemption and lowering the age at which a homeowner can qualify for additional relief. Patrick is proposing to increase the homestead exemption to $180,000, up from the current $140,000 that was approved by voters last month. Patrick is also proposing to lower from the age of 65 to 55 when homeowners can take another $60,000 in homestead exemptions, at which point homeowners could realize a $240,000 exemption in the value of their homes. Patrick’s plan is estimated to cost the state $4 billion annually.
The two state leaders have not discussed the competing plans directly, but both camps said they do look forward to working together to develop a plan that provides continued property tax relief. Look for extended studies and legislative hearings on these proposals throughout the year as we lead into the 2027 regular session.
Turning Point USA in Public Schools
Gov. Abbott this week threatened action against any public school or school district that tries to block Turning Point USA chapters from being established. Turning Point USA is the young conservatives group founded by Charlie Kirk, who was assassinated at a public forum in September at Utah Valley University.
The announcement by Abbott comes on the heels of Lt. Governor Dan Patrick committing $1 million from his campaign funds to help launch Turning Point USA chapters at every public high school and college campus in the state. No complaints have been made, but Abbott is directing anyone to direct their complaints directly to the Texas Education Agency for disciplinary action. The organization now has chapters at over 500 high schools throughout the state.
President Trump Bashes Cuellar After Pardon
What a difference a week makes. Last week, President Trump pardoned Laredo Democratic Congressman Henry Cuellar and his wife, who were under indictment for bribery and money laundering charges. In the announcement, Trump said he was fighting for Cuellar and his family that were “tormented by very sick and deranged people.”
On the day of the pardon, Cuellar filed for reelection to the US House as a Democrat. In response, President Trump criticized Cuellar for his “lack of loyalty”. Trump, through social media posts, said he was in disbelief that Cuellar would continue to align himself with the same “radical left scum that wanted so see him and his wife spend the rest of their lives in prison.”
After the announcement that Cuellar would be seeking reelection as a Democrat, Cuellar received notification that party leadership would restore his position as the ranking Democrat on the powerful House Appropriations Committee. Cuellar is the lone Democrat from Texas on the committee that controls billions of dollars for all government funded programs and projects.
Political Notes
Texas House Democrats this week named Houston state Rep. Christina Morales as the chair of the House Democratic Caucus Campaign Committee (HDCC) and announced the HDCC would prioritize flipping 5 seats in the 2026 election. Democrats currently are at an 88-62 partisan disadvantage in the 150-member Texas House and have no illusions of being able to take control of the House. But they do want to reduce the number of Republican seats where they can. The five seats they are trying to flip – two in San Antonio, one in Corpus, one in Garland, and one in the Rio Grande Valley – all saw the Democrat lose in 2024 by an average of 7 points, so the task won’t be easy. But the national Democratic Party has promised to share resources in Texas, partly as a reward for the Democrats breaking quorum in July in an attempt to stop – or at least delay – the new Congressional maps passed in August.
Another week, another poll in the race for the Republican nomination for US Senate. And, the numbers continue to look bad for incumbent John Cornyn. The campaign of Congressman Wesley Hunt released numbers this week showing Hunt trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton by 5 points, 33% to 28% in a three-way race. Cornyn comes in with 27% of the vote. In head-to-head matchups according to this most recent survey, Hunt leads Cornyn 50% to 35%, Paxton leads Cornyn 44% to 40%, and Hunt leads Paxton 45% to 39%.
Like the Dallas area, Democrats in Houston are also scrambling to find districts in which they can compete and win. Incumbent Congressman Al Green – currently representing Congressional District 9 – will switch and run for reelection in Congressional District 18, based in Houston. Green’s district 9 was redrawn to favor the election of a Republican, so he is running in the more Democratic friendly CD 18. Green will face off against either former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards or Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee. The latter two are in a January 31st runoff to determine who will fill the unexpired term of the late Sylvester Turner, who passed away while in office last March. Both Edwards and Menefee have filed to run in the March primary for the full two-year term beginning in 2027.
Longtime Austin Democrat Lloyd Doggett will not seek reelection in 2026. Doggett has served in the US House representing the Austin area since 1993. The newly drawn Congressional maps reduced the number of Democratic Congressional districts from two to one in the Austin area, leaving Doggett as the odd man out. Doggett will give way to first term Democrat Greg Casar, who intends to seek reelection.
Former state Senator and Lt. Governor Bill Ratliff passed away this week at the age of 89. Ratliff was first elected to the Senate in 1988, defeating a Democratic incumbent in what was seen as a major upset. In 2001, his Senate colleagues elected him to serve as Lt. Governor when George W. Bush was elected President, and then Lt. Governor Rick Perry ascended to the Governor’s Mansion. Ratliff served for two years in that role, returning to the body for the 2003 session. During his tenure as a member of the Senate, Ratliff chaired the Education and Finance Committees and was credited with leading the Senate on many contentious and difficult issues including a 1995 rewrite of the public school finance system. He resigned from the Senate in 2004 and returned to his home of Mt. Pleasant.
What’s Next??
Members will have to report their latest campaign finance numbers in January, with the numbers reflecting money raised in the last half of 2025. So, to try and pad their account showing a large campaign balance, many of the members are holding fundraisers over the next couple of weeks in Austin before everyone retreats into full holiday mode.
No interim committee activity on the immediate horizon, but we could see some committee hearings after the first of the year, specifically on the property tax issue, that could not only include discussions on property tax relief, but also how to further regulate and restrict local governments regarding appraisals and procedures for local option elections.