Here’s a quick recap of what happened over the last week: 1212
Primary Election is Tuesday
Today is the LAST day for early voting! During early voting, you are able to vote at ANY countywide voting site.
The poll hours on Election Day go from 7AM-7PM, if you are in line by 7:00PM, you are legally entitled to vote. Also, on Election Day, if your county participates in countywide voting, you may vote at any polling location within the county. Most large counties (Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, and Travis) participate in countywide voting, while in smaller counties, you may need to vote at your assigned precinct. You are able to find your precinct number on your voter registration card, your county’s election website, or through the Texas Secretary of State’s website, https://www.votetexas.gov
Texas requires you to provide one of the following approved photo IDs in order to verify your identity and citizenship status:
- Texas Driver License
- Texas Personal ID Card
- Texas Election Identification Certificate
- Texas Handgun License
- US Military ID (with photo)
- US Citizenship Certificate (with photo)
- US Passport (book or card)
Your ID can be expired up to four years, or longer if you are over 70 years old. If you do not possess one of these IDS, you must fill out a Reasonable Impediment Declaration and present a supporting document (utility bill, bank statement, government check, birth certificate, etc)
Texas operates on an open primary system, meaning voters do not register by party. However, you must choose either a Democratic or Republican ballot when you vote.
Harris County has 600+ Election Day poll locations, Dallas County has 400+, Tarrant County at 350+, Bexar County with 250+ locations, and Travis at 180+.
Any mail ballots must be postmarked by March 3rd and received by the county elections office by the deadline (typically 5 business days). If you intend to vote by mail, please ensure all required identification is included on the ballot carrier envelope to avoid rejection.
There are 13 Democratic propositions this year, 10 Republican, all of which are non-binding and have force of law.
Early Voter Turnout for the Primaries Outpaces Past Election Cycles
Early voting has seen significantly higher participation within the first week than at similar points in recent election cycles, including both midterm and presidential primary years. According to early data from the Texas Secretary of State, the combined early ballots cast so far have exceeded totals from the first week of early voting in both the 2020 and 2024 presidential primaries. Unofficial state figures show that through the first week, more than 1.25 million Texans have cast their ballots.
We are likely to see record turnout for both parties. If we look at the number of votes cast through the first nine days of early voting – and this high turnout trend continues — we can project that 2.4 million will vote in the Republican primary and 2.8 million will vote in the Democratic primary. For reference, the last time the Democratic primary had this many voters was in 2008, when Barack Obama was running for President. This notable trend of higher pace of Democratic participation relative to Republicans is a reversal of historical patterns in Texas primaries.
All figures I am about to give for the state’s larger counties are total vote counts through early voting on Wednesday – the first nine days of early voting – unless noted otherwise.
In Travis County alone, early turnout reached nearly 9% of registered voters (80,000 ballots), a rate higher than any primary election since at least 2008. Roughly 63,000 Democratic ballots were cast, compared to the just over 16,000 Republican ballots in that timeframe.
Harris County preliminary figures show 192,400 total ballots cast, with figures indicating more Democratic primary participation than Republican. In the 2022 primaries, roughly 168,100 Democratic ballots and about 189,200 Republican ballots were cast during early voting. Harris County is critical because it is Texas’s most populous county and traditionally a major source of Democratic votes statewide; its early turnout numbers are often predictive of broader enthusiasm. Bexar County has reported around 65,815 Democratic ballots compared to 28,285 Republican ballots cast, with their entire turnout up about 48% compared with the same early period in the 2022 primary.
In Dallas County, more than double the number of early votes cast during the 2024 primary. Available reports show that Democratic turnout in Dallas County has surged, with more than 70,000 Democratic voters and only 15,000 early GOP votes within the first six days. After the first nine days, 93,079 voters had cast ballots in Dallas County. In Tarrant County, a typically Republican-leaning county, early voting has also shown an energized Democratic turnout. By Saturday of the first week, more than 12,000 Democrats had voted in one day, leading to a total of more than 51,000 ballots cast in Tarrant County’s early voting period– Democrats outvoting Republicans by over 10,000. Collin County saw trailing numbers for Democratic early voters behind Republicans in the first few days, but the totals were nearly identical by Saturday (about 26,000 a piece.)
Importantly, the turnout expansion is not limited to big urban, typically democratic cores– in several mixed or purple counties with significant rural or exurban populations– democratic early vote shares have still been expressed at levels that rival or exceed GOP participation. Fully rural counties in deep East Texas or the Panhandle, where Republicans historically dominate, may still reflect GOP strength. This pattern seems to continue in 2026, but the statewide surge suggests that even these traditionally low-engagement areas are posting higher participation than usual. As these final early voting totals and county-specific breakdowns roll in after February 27th, the data will clarify how deep the 2026 turnout surge extends into truly rural counties
The unusuality of this is that midterm primaries normally attract lower turnout than presidential years, but this one is completely outpacing previous midterms. Driven largely by Democratic enthusiasm tied to competitive races, such as the high-profile US Senate Race with James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett. Republican voters are still showing up, but their early voting pace has not increased as sharply as Democratic turnout. Political analysts see this as significant for both the primary outcomes and what it could potentially signal for the November general elections, where turnout patterns often shape broader trends. They note that higher primary engagement can reflect energized voters and stronger participation later in the cycle; however, primary turnout does not always predict or reflect general-election results.
US Senate – The Republicans
In this well publicized race, incumbent US Senator John Cornyn is facing significant challenges from Attorney General Ken Paxton, and US Rep. Wesley Hunt. No candidate is expected to exceed the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff. In a poll released Wednesday by the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project, Paxton led with 36% support, Cornyn at 34%, and Hunt at 26%. No candidate has been close to garnering 50% alone.
President Donald Trump has still not endorsed any of the three candidates, leaving Paxton, Cornyn, and Hunt to compete without the potent “Trump Endorsed” signal. Trump has noted that he “likes all three”, effectively deciding to stay neutral while early voting continues. This has frustrated some of Cornyn’s supporters, who hoped that a Trump backing would consolidate establishment support and blunt Paxton’s insurgent challenge. However, Paxton has positioned himself as a firebrand, often appealing to the conservative base more forcefully than Cornyn. Early polling has shown him leading the field at times, leaning into cultural and social issues that resonate with conservative activists. Given his statewide elected status and high name recognition, Paxton has forced Cornyn into defensive campaign modes and targeted ads.
This 2026 Senate Primary has become one of the most expensive in the country. Advertising between the three candidates has approached $100 million ahead of the primary day – much of which has been driven by Cornyn’s campaign and allied PACs defending his incumbency while attacking Paxton and Hunt. His campaign and affiliated PAC’s have spent substantial funds — over $60 million — into ads portraying Paxton as ethically troubled and unsuitable for the general electorate, including controversial attacks concerning Paxton’s personal conduct. This primary has quickly evolved into a clear ideological and stylistic fight within the Republican party.
Congressman Wesley Hunt entered the race later than his rivals but has positioned himself as an alternative to both Cornyn and Paxton. He highlights his military services and frames himself as a fresh, energetic leader representing a new generation. Despite this, Hunt has faced attacks from both Cornyn and Paxton, who view his growing profile as a threat to their own paths to 50% – particularly because his presence will likely mean a runoff for the two of them.
US Senate – The Democrats
As the Texas Democratic Senate primary also heads into its final stretch, one recent polled showed Crockett with a clear lead over Talarico as early voting concludes. In the same University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey referenced above, Crockett leads with 56% support, and Talarico at 44%. Another poll released last night by Public Policy Polling showed Talarico leading Crockett by a 48% to 42% margin. Many think this poll is more reliable due to the fact that it polled likely Democratic voters. The UT poll surveyed likely voters, not directed at specific party affiliations.
Other polls earlier in the cycle also showed varying results, depending on who was targeted and who responded to the questions. However, most polls show Crockett’s momentum has grown in recent weeks, particularly among Black voters and other base blocs.
Crockett’s campaign strategy has focused on projecting strength, assertiveness, and grassroots appeal. Her messaging takes aim at Talarico among a few key lines, including being an authentic fighter for the base, his cross-over appeal diminishing his effectiveness, and the policy distinctions between the two of them. She embraces a tough, unapologetic style and has repeatedly positioned herself as someone willing to forcefully push back against political opponents. Crockett has also suggested that Talarico’s focus on moderation is a weakness and reflects on his lack of identity within the party. Her campaign has specifically underscored her civil rights background and outspokenness on issues like criminal justice reform. She has successfully portrayed herself as a more passionate and experienced candidate for key constituencies.
Talarico has frequently framed himself as the “underdog” and underscores his efforts to appeal beyond just the Democratic base – to independents and moderate Republicans– particularly in a statewide general election. He emphasizes pragmatic solutions to issues like immigration, education, and the economy. Rather than attacking Crockett’s character directly– a line he has to tow carefully after his latest social media scandal regarding Colin Allread– his criticisms tend to center around style differences. He states that emotional appeals alone are not enough to win statewide, voters want someone who can legislate and build consensus.
Polling shows that Crockett has substantial strength among Black voters, where she pulls overwhelming support. Talarico’s support tends to be stronger among more moderate and swing segments, including older voters and some Latino voters. This demographic split is critical: turning out voters is key in primaries, but appealing to broader coalitions does matter for the general election, where one of them will face their GOP opponent.
The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll
The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project I have referenced polled other statewide contests in addition to the US Senate race. One important thing to stress in this poll is that the numbers produced are of likely voters. There was a total of 1,300 registered voters that were surveyed, with an oversample of “verified primary voters”. These voters were defined as those with a verified history of voting in any of the last three primaries, and who then indicated they would be voting in the Democratic or Republican primary if it were held today. To be clear, these are not numbers that could clearly and accurately predict the actual primary results, they are only results of a sampled group of the population. The margin of error stands at around +/- 5.2 points. Below are some of these numbers:
Attorney General
Democrats
Joe Jaworski- 52%
Nathan Johson – 28%
Republicans
Chip Roy- 40%
Mayes Middleton- 38%
Governor
Republicans
Greg Abbott- 91%
Democrats
Gina Hinojosa- 76%
Lieutenant Governor
Republican
Dan Patrick- 87%
Democrat
Vikki Goodwin- 63%
Comptroller
(latest public polling was in January of 2026)
Don Huffines: 33%
Christi Craddick: 21%
Kelly Hancock: 13%
US Senate
Democrats
Jasmine Crockett- 56%
James Talarico- 44%
Republicans
Ken Paxton- 36%
John Cornyn- 34%
Wesley Hunt- 26%
https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/files/202602_POLL_TOPLINE-3844a2e5.pdf
Trump to Visit Corpus Christi Today
President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit Corpus Christi today. The visit is expected to include remarks on energy and the economy, reflecting themes from his recent State of the Union address and broader campaign messaging. According to multiple sources, the stop is confirmed by the White House and Republican officials, though specific details about the event and schedule have not been fully released publicly. Reported details supposed to be around 2:00-4:00 PM local time at the Port of Corpus Christi, hosted by the Nueces County Republican Party.
His visit comes during the final days of early voting and is likely intended to boost Republican turnout ahead of March 3rd. He has endorsed numerous Republican candidates in other Texas races, and his visit could bolster several congressional and legislative campaigns in the final days of the primary cycle.
Corpus Christi is the 8th-largest city in Texas and a key energy and industrial hub in South Texas, fielding central to GOP economic messaging and voter priorities. The region is also strategically important for Republicans working to expand Hispanic voter support outside heavily urbanized DFW and Houston corridors. Trump’s visit underscores the urgency of Republican engagement heading into primary day, highlights core themes, and offers a high-profile spotlight on South Texas at a critical juncture in the election cycle.
Congressman Gonzales Faces Calls to Resign
Republican Congressman Tony Gonzales of San Antonio says he will not succumb to mounting pressure for him to resign over his affair with a member of his staff who later died by suicide.
Many hardline conservatives in the US House have called on Gonzales to step down after a story in the San Antonio Express News revealed the Congressman had pressed the staffer on numerous occasions to “send a sexy pic”, to which the staff replied, “too far boss”. The evidence of the exchanges was discovered by the Express News and later verified as authentic. US House rules prohibit members of Congress from having relationships with their employees, which has prompted an investigation by the Office of Congressional Conduct.
With the thin majority in Congress, Speaker Mike Johnson and other party leaders may be reluctant for Gonzales to resign, leaving a vacancy in the House. Gonzales is also involved in a heated primary battle against gun rights activist Brandon Herrera, who Gonzales defeated by only 400 votes in 2024. Herrera is an extremist who party leaders also feel may be vulnerable to defeat at the hands of the Democrats in November. Recent polls show Herrera and Gonzales in a virtual tie heading into Tuesday’s election.
Houston, Katy, & Plano ISDs Blocked From Having to Comply With DEI Law
In 2025, the Texas Legislature passed Senate Bill 12 – a sweeping new law that bans certain diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) activities in K-12 public schools and charter districts. Under the law, school districts are prohibited from conducting DEI programming, activities, and staff duties that reference race, color, ethnicity, gender identity, and sexual orientation; it also bans student clubs based on gender or sexual orientation and restricts instructional content. The law took effect on September 1st and requires districts to certify their compliance.
However, a federal judge has now temporarily blocked three major Texas districts (Houston, Katy, and Plano ISDs) from having to comply with key parts of the law while constitutional changes are ongoing. US District Court granted a preliminary injunction in a lawsuit filed by civil rights organizations – including the ACLU of Texas, the Transgender Law Center, and Baker McKenzie – on behalf of students and educators challenging SB 12’s enforcement. This means, that at least for now, those districts will not have to implement certain DEI restrictions that the state had sought to enforce.
The injunction blocks enforcement of several specific provisions of the law in the districts, including:
- Restrictions on school-sponsored DEI efforts
- Prohibitions on teachers referring to students by their preferred names/pronouns
- Bans on instruction about sexual orientation or gender identity
- Barring identity-based student clubs
The lawsuit argues that the listed restrictions actually violate the First and Fourteenth Amendments and the Equal Access Act – all legal foundations for free speech and student association rights. In response to the injunction, civil rights advocates have emphasized that districts should not be forced to comply with provisions they believe infringe on basic rights.
The injunction does not invalidate the DEI law statewide, but it temporarily prevents enforcement of parts of it within the districts while litigation is ongoing. District officials, especially those in large urban systems, have welcomed the ruling as temporary reprieve. Houston and Plano ISDs previously noted that aspects of the law were both vague and challenging to implement practically without having to undermine student support services. The fact that a federal judge found enough legal basis to grant an injunction indicates that these plaintiffs are likely to succeed on some claim at trial; this makes the litigation outcome especially consequential for the future of the bill’s enforcement.
Lt. Governor Patrick Attempts to Block Reopening of Camp Mystic
Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick has publicly urged the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) not to renew Camp Mystic’s youth camp license for the 2026 summer, effectively attempting to halt the camp’s planned reopening. In a February 23rd letter to the DSHS Commissioner Jennifer Shuford, Patrick wrote that the tragic July 4th Central Texas floods – which tragically took the lives of 27 young girls, two teenage counselors, and the camp’s executive director – should be fully investigated before any license is issued. He stated the following in the letter: “It would be naive to allow Camp Mystic to return to normal operations before all of the facts are known… Texans deserve transparency and clear answers before the Department of State Health Services… allows Camp Mystic to operate.”
The floods over last July 4th weekend saw catastrophic rains at the South Fork of the Guadalupe River that surged through the historic camp’s property in Kerr County. It resulted in 137 total flood fatalities in the region, including those 27 deaths directly tied to Camp Mystic. Investigations and lawsuits have revealed that the camp did not have an adequate evacuation plan, and its emergency instructions reportedly directed campers to stay in cabins during floods. This choice exacerbated the tragedy, as an entire cabin had flooded and been swept away, taking the lives of those inside. A federal lawsuit filed by parents this week alleges that DSHS failed to enforce the state’s evacuation plan requirements when it licensed the camp.
Patrick argues that the state should delay renewal – which DSHS allows applications for through March 31st – until legislative investigations into the flood deaths and emergency planning are completed. The letter was sent just hours after parents of nine of the victims filed the lawsuit against DSHS officials, claiming that the agency improperly licensed the camp previously. Patrick’s position signals that he believes the camp’s current plans, including “Camp Mystic Cypress Lake” (a separate site intended to open in 2026), should not be considered adequate grounds for licensing. He has also added that he would not feel comfortable sending his own grandchildren to the camp while these key questions remain unanswered. He underscores how serious he views the safety and accountability surrounding the camp’s operations.
Camp Mystic defenders say the Cypress Lake site meets all current safety laws and was not damaged in the flood, so there is no legal basis to withhold its license. Their statement argues that as long as the facility complies with regulatory requirements, DSHS should grant the renewal. State Rep. Wes Virdell – whose district includes the camp – has publicly criticized Patrick’s request as an overreach, and has raised concerns that casting doubt on the licensing process before investigations are complete is unfair to local camps. However, many parents and legal advocates have praised Patrick’s letter as a necessary step toward accountability. Paul Yetter, attorney for the families, told reporters that Patrick took “a very courageous step to protect children” by urging the state not the relicense the camp.
This fight over Camp Mystic’s reopening raises significant questions about public safety regulation, political influence, and litigation/liability risks. Whether DSHS ultimately renews the camp’s license – and under what conditions – could set further precedent for how Texas handles emergency planning and enforcement for youth camps statewide. The outcome will be watched by families affected by the flood, lawmakers concerned with public safety, and the wider community impacted by one of the state’s deadliest recent weather disasters.
Political Notes
With the benefit of a $100 million plus war chest, Gov. Abbott has the ability to spend to help allied Republicans in competitive primaries. Abbott has spent $2.6 million to help his appointee as interim Comptroller – former state Senator Kelly Hancock – who is in a four-way primary. Former state Senator Don Huffines has been leading in most polls, followed by Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick. Hancock has been a distant third in most surveys. TV ads featuring Abbott supporting Hancock have been running for the past several weeks, but Hancock’s standing in the polls has not seen a benefit. It is likely he will not make the runoff.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is investigating Republican state Rep. Stan Kitzman for his work for a local drainage district in Katy while serving in the legislature. State law prohibits legislators from receiving “emoluments” from any political subdivision. The AG’s office claims Kitzman has an agreement with the district to pay him $11,000 a month for administrative and management services. Kitzman is being challenged in the Republican primary by Dennis “Goose” Geesaman, a former mayor of Flatonia who is basing his campaign on Kitzman’s lack of conservative credentials. The race is for House District 85, a solidly Republican district covering five rural counties west of Houston.
Republican state Rep. Ken King of Canadian is facing a surprisingly serious challenge from rancher John Browing of Plainview in the primary. King serves as chairman of the powerful House State Affairs Committee and has taken criticism from hardline conservatives for not passing bills out of the committee relating to gender ideology, transgender issues, and taxpayer funded lobbying. The race was not considered serious until earlier this month when Browning received a $50,000 contribution from the Texans United for a Conservative Majority PAC, which helps to fund hardline candidates. Plus, two of King’s ultra conservative House colleagues – Wes Virdell of Junction and Tony Tinderholt of Arlington – have been featured in campaign ads for Browning that accused King of stopping conservative bills from advancing out of committee. The race is for House District 88, covering rural counties stretching from the Panhandle to Lubbock.
What’s Next??
The primary election is Tuesday and early voting ends today at 7PM. I will have a full report on the results Wednesday morning.
With the letter from the chamber leaders requesting interim study requests, we now have a timetable on when interim charges may be issued, which should be shortly after the primary election.