Here’s a quick recap of what happened over the last week:
Early Voting Ends Today
As of Wednesday, just shy of 7 million Texans had cast an early ballot, which translates to a 37% turnout. Republicans are outvoting Democrats so far. Nearly 2.3 million of the early votes cast were by voters with a history of voting in a Republican primary, compared to about 1.5 million that had a history of voting in a Democratic primary. 2.2 million had only voted in the general election and the remainder were either first time voters or had a history of voting in both primaries. At this pace, the state will see slightly more than 8 million early votes cast.
There was also one unfortunate and ugly incident during early voting. Last Friday, a man was arrested in San Antonio for assaulting an elderly election worker at a polling place on the city’s southwest side. According to a report from the Bexar County Sheriff’s office, the man entered a polling place at a public library wearing a political hat advertising a MAGA slogan. Texas law prohibits voters from wearing any type of clothing or accessory that supports or opposes any specific candidate within 100 feet of a polling location. The voter was asked to remover the hat and complied initially, taking off the hat while he voted. After he cast his vote, he put the hat back on and when the poll worker again asked him to remove the hat until he was out of the polling location, he assaulted the poll worker. The voter has been charged with assault to the elderly. He has since posted a $30,000 bond and been released from jail. No other incidents of violence have been reported throughout the state.
Early voting continues through 7PM today.
If you haven’t voted, polls are open Tuesday from 7AM to 7PM. For all information related to voting, including acceptable forms of ID, early voting locations, and links to your local county elections office, go to: https://www.votetexas.gov
Presidential Race / Polling Numbers
With less than a week to go, all eyes are on the seven states that are likely to decide the 2024 Presidential race – Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada. The two candidates have been spending the vast majority of their time in these states, and the polls are showing virtual ties in most of these states, with polling numbers within the margin of error for both candidates. According to a report from USA Today that showed the average of results from recent polls, Trump has a lead in Georgia (49-48) North Carolina (50-48), Wisconsin (49-48), and Arizona (50-49). Harris leads in Michigan (49-46). Polls differ in Pennsylvania, with differing surveys showing each candidate with a one-point lead and the two are tied in Nevada.
Both Presidential candidates were in Texas last Friday. Trump in Austin as the guest of Joe Rogan on his podcast. Trump held a private rally for supporters at the Austin airport where he was joined by several statewide elected officials including US Senator Ted Cruz and Lt. Governor Dan Patrick. Trump supporters also lined Bee Cave Road west of Austin in hopes of seeing the motorcade as he headed to make the appearance on the podcast. Trump spoke for about 40 minutes before leaving to tape the podcast, focusing on border enforcement issues, and crediting the state leadership on their efforts regarding border enforcement.
Vice-President Harris appeared at Shell Energy Stadium – home of the two Houston professional soccer teams. She was joined by singers Beyonce and Willie Nelson. The rally focused on reproductive rights and had an estimated crowd of 30,000. While Beyonce did not perform, she did formally endorse Harris at the event. Attendees were admitted on a first-come, first-serve basis, with supporters seen lining the streets of downtown Houston for several hours waiting for a chance to attend the event.
Cruz/Allred Race Update
Democratic challenger Colin Allred released a poll on Monday that indicated he was tied with incumbent Republican Ted Cruz in the race for US Senate. Allred’s poll was done internally and showed both candidates with 46% of the vote. It was conducted from October 18-23 among 800 likely voters. However, other polls have shown Cruz maintaining a lead over Allred. A recent University of Texas/Texas Politics Project shows Cruz leading Allred by a 51% to 44% margin. A recent New York Times/Sienna College poll also showed Cruz leading by a 50% to 46% margin.
As the race finally comes down to election day, the two candidates have raised and spent record amounts. According to figures with the Federal Election Commission, from January 1, 2023 through October 16, 2024, the candidates have raised a combined $160 million. Cruz has raised $72.7 million while Allred has raised $87.3 million. These totals are monies raised directly by each candidate and their affiliated PAC’s. This race is now the most expensive US Senate race in the country this year and in the history of all Texas campaigns. The total money raised is $38 million more than the next most expensive race, which is for the Senate in Ohio.
Spending follows the money raising, and I’m sure everyone has seen their share of commercials from both candidates. According to a report from the Houston Chronicle, Allred spent nearly $38 million on advertising between July and October. The Cruz campaign spent $16.3 million from July to October, and one Super PAC alone spent $12.3 million. Total spending for Cruz so far is just shy of $63 million.
And finally, Cruz has accused the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee of illegally exceeding contribution limits to the Allred campaign. Federal Election Commission guidelines allow party-affiliated groups to spend certain amounts on each candidate in a given state based on the state’s population. This is because states with bigger populations have higher media related costs than other states. In Texas, the amount set by the FEC this year was $2.8 million. Cruz has filed a formal complaint with the SEC that accuses the DSCC of spending more than $10 million on TV ads for Allred. There are loopholes to the limits, such as spending on ads that do not specifically mention Cruz by name. But there has been no legal determination of the exact loopholes that can be exploited and recent FEC rulings have not specified the type of ads that may violate the spending threshold, so the ads will continue throughout the remainder of the campaign.
AG Ken Paxton Calls on House Member to Resign
A huge rift between Republican lawmakers has developed over the Robert Roberson capital murder case. Roberson is on death row for the murder of his 2-year-old daughter and has maintained his innocence during his 20 years on death row, saying she was chronically ill and died of natural causes. However, Roberson was convicted of severely injuring his daughter and causing her death by the shaken baby syndrome. Some experts have called the shaken baby syndrome “junk science” and called Roberson’s conviction into question.
State Rep. Jeff Leach (R, Plano) is chair of the Texas House Judiciary and Civil Jurisprudence Committee and has led a legislative charge to first stop the execution of Roberson and have new evidence considered to afford him a new trial. Leach sent a text to a judge on the Court of Criminal Appeals, pleading with her to consider granting Roberson a new trial. The State Bar rules of professional conduct strictly forbid an attorney from attempting to influence any matter pending before the court. Leach for his part, said he did not feel he violated any rules of conduct since he was not part of Roberson’s defense team.
AG Ken Paxton sees things differently. He has called on Leach to resign, saying Leach is not able to effectively serve in the House after improperly contacting a judge to try and influence the case. Leach and Paxton have some history. Leach served as a manager for the Texas House when they impeached Paxton last summer for bribery and abuse of office allegations and gave an impassioned closing argument to the Senate during the Paxton trial. Leach continues to maintain he did nothing wrong in the Roberson case and said he will not resign. Paxton will likely escalate the issue and continue to pursue Leach’s removal from the House.
Border News
The Texas General Land Office announced this week that the state of Texas has purchased two ranches in south Texas for the purpose of building a 1.5 mile stretch of border wall. The first ranch bought was a 353,785-acre ranch in the Big Bend region that borders Big Bend National Park. According to the GLO press statement, the ranch was a collection of 28 ranches that had been parceled together over the last 20 years. In addition to the land to be used for a border wall, the state plans to lease a significant portion for hunting and agriculture purposes. The second purchase was a 1400-acre ranch in Starr County where the state will also erect a border wall on the Rio Grande River.
State leaders continue to criticize the Biden/Harris administration for differing policies on border enforcement issues. This week, Gov. Abbott sent a letter to Vice-President Harris demanding that she declare Tren de Aragua (TDA) as a foreign terrorist organization. Abbott sent the letter in conjunction with her visit to Houston last Friday, inviting her to make the declaration while in Texas, and specifically Houston since that is the home of Jocelyn Nungaray, the 12-year-old who was raped and murdered by suspected TDA members. The state has initiated a statewide operation to aggressively target TDA operations and members and has declared the gang to be a Tier 1 threat to public safety in Texas.
Political Notes
In the state House, most districts have been drawn at a very partisan level designed to ensure that party is successful in the general election. This sets up very few truly competitive races in the November election every two years. However, there are a few races that are going to be competitive on Tuesday. Of interest, Republican candidates/officeholders are far outraising his/her Democratic opponent in the last few weeks of the election. Candidates filed 8-day out reports last week – showing money raised in the last month – indicating a big financial advantage for the Republicans over their Democratic opponents. A report this week by the Texas Tribune showed that in the 12 most competitive Texas House races, the Republican candidates raised over $11 million over the last month, compared to $3.5 million by the Democrat candidates.
Races for seats in south Texas are getting a lot of attention since Republicans are trying to continue their momentum from recent elections. Republican Robert Garza of Del Rio – the opponent of Democrat Rep. Eddie Morales of Eagle Pass — outraised the Democratic incumbent $481,000 to $122,000. Incumbent Republican Rep. Janie Lopez of Brownsville outraised her Democratic challenger by raising $1.6 million compared to $181,000 for the Democratic challenger. And, in the open seat based in Uvalde – a priority to flip for Republicans – Republican Don McLaughlin raised $546,000 compared to $46,000 raised by his Democratic challenger.
More from Trump. On Friday while in Texas, he endorsed Republican state Senate candidate Adam Hinojosa in his challenge to incumbent Democrat Morgan LaMantia of Brownsville. The Republicans are trying to flip the Rio Grande Valley based Senate seat. This is a rematch from 2022 when LaMantia defeated Hinojosa by only 700 votes out of 175,000 cast.
And the cross-party endorsements continue. Outgoing Republican state Rep. Hugh Shine of Temple has endorsed Democrat Jennifer Lee in her challenge to Republican Hillary Hickland. Hickland soundly defeated Shine in the March Republican primary. Shine – a 12-year incumbent – said that Lee would be better for the district on public education issues, a clear reference to the education voucher issue that Shine opposes. This endorsement followed another defeated Republican – Rep. Steve Allison – who endorsed the Democratic challenger to the Republican that defeated him earlier in the year in San Antonio.
What’s Next??
Next week, the Senate Local Government Committee will meet to discuss legislative recommendations related to affordable housing and for additional property tax relief for Texas homeowners.
Here is a link to the full list of hearings later this fall, and the agenda for each hearing: https://capitol.texas.gov
Tuesday is Election Day. There are 73 days until the start of the regular legislative session. There are only 10 days until the start of prefiling of legislation for the regular session. Prefiling begins on the Monday after the general election.