Here’s a quick recap of what happened over the last week:
Congressional Redistricting Plan Overturned
A panel of three federal judges – two Republicans and one Democrat – issued a ruling this week that blocked Texas from implementing its newly drawn congressional maps in the 2026 elections and ruled Texas must use the current Congressional maps for the 2026 elections. In the ruling the judges declared that the state engaged in unlawful racial gerrymandering that violated the rights of Black and Hispanic voters. The court’s decision means Texas cannot use the 2025 maps, which were passed by the legislature this summer at the urging of the Trump administration to try and get more Republicans elected to Congress.
With the mid-terms promising to be a challenge for the Republicans to maintain their slim majority in the US House, many states have redrawn their Congressional districts in an attempt have more Republicans elected to Congress. The new maps in Texas have the potential of increasing the number of Republicans in Congress from Texas from 25 to 30.
In the ruling, the judicial panel found “substantial evidence” that the mid-decade redistricting was driven by racial, not just partisan, considerations, which would dismantle districts with Black and Hispanic majorities and diminish their voting strength.
Trump appointee US District Judge Jeff Brown wrote in the majority opinion that statements used by Gov. Abbott in announcing the need for the special session expressly disavowed any partisan objective by stating his goal for the rewrite of the Congressional districts was to eliminate coalition districts that were designed to elect Blacks and Hispanics. Note the fact that the Supreme Court has ruled that states can legally draw Congressional districts for purely partisan purposes but may not redistrict based on race.
While this ruling is a blow to the hopes of gaining more Republican seats in Congress, AG Ken Paxton has already appealed the ruling directly to the US Supreme Court. But with the candidate filing period already underway – and set to close on Monday, December 8th – the ruling could have a major impact on the state’s primary elections due to take place in March. There are literally endless possibilities on what happens next, and it is dependent on how quickly the US Supreme Court takes action.
The Court could simply uphold the ruling, and we go back to the current Congressional maps, and all timelines stay the same. Or they could issue a temporary stay to allow them to review the ruling further and call for an extension of the filing period and subsequent delay in the March primary elections. There is precedent set for delaying the primary elections due to redistricting challenges. In 2012, the March primaries were delayed twice due to court challenges to legislative maps, with the primaries not being held until May of 2012.
Another complicating factor is the fact that many candidates have filed for seats both at the state and Congressional level with the anticipation that the new maps will be used in 2026. For example, state Rep. Briscoe Cain has filed to run for the new Congressional District 9, and there have been several candidates file for his state House seat. If the new maps are thrown out, Cain will be left trying to look for another Congressional district – since the current CD 9 is not winnable for a Republican – or seek reelection to his current state House seat.
We could go on and on about the complications and scenarios that are possible, but nothing will be known until there is some sort of ruling by the US Supreme Court. The anticipation – and hope – is that there will be something issued from the Court shortly after Thanksgiving since the candidate filing period ends that week. Until then, all of what I have discussed is nothing more than speculation and conjecture.
I’ll keep everyone updated of any and all relevant rulings and developments in this case.
US Senate Race
Another week, another poll in the race for the Republican nomination for US Senate. Hunt Research of Dallas released a poll this week showing a tight race, with Texas AG Ken Paxton starting to establish a slight lead over incumbent John Cornyn and Congressman Wesley Hunt of Houston. Hunt research is not affiliated with any of the three campaigns and polled 1,097 likely Republican primary voters from October 6th-10th. The poll showed Paxton as the choice of 28% of the respondents, with Cornyn coming in at 24%. Hunt trailed the other two with 19%.
This can be interpreted as more bad news for the incumbent Cornyn, who at 74 is seeking a 5th term in the US Senate. He has spent millions in the past few months attacking Paxton and trying to tie his political fortunes to President Trump, only to continue to trail Paxton in almost every poll. Plus, this shows Hunt is likely pulling votes from Cornyn as Hunt has aggressively attacked Cornyn saying it is time for him to retire, going as far to say, “the US Senate is not a retirement community”, referencing Cornyn’s age and long tenure in the Senate.
For his part, Paxton has not spent aggressively – yet. He has spent his time touring the state speaking to the more conservative groups and activists in the party, where his base lies. Paxton has indicated he will focus on Cornyn and his initial reluctance to support a Trump candidacy in 2024 and remind primary voters of Cornyn’s sponsorship of a firearm safety bill that increased requirements for background checks.
Senate leadership has aggressively supported Cornyn financially, with their argument centering on Cornyn being the most electable in a general election over the eventual Democratic nominee. A poll released this week by Ragnar Research seems to underline their point. The poll conducted earlier this month of 1,000 likely general election voters found Cornyn faring better in November. The poll shows Cornyn with a 47% to 40% lead over former Congressman – and 2024 Democratic nominee – Colin Allred and a 46% to 40% lead over Austin state Rep. James Talarico. The same poll showed Paxton trailing Allred by a 44% to 43% margin and tied with Talarico at 44%.
Google Investment in Texas
Google has announced a major $40 billion investment to build three new data center campuses in Texas, marking its largest single-state commitment in the U.S. to date. These campuses will be located in Armstrong County in the Texas Panhandle and two in Haskell County near Abilene, with continued investment in existing sites in Red Oak and Midlothian. The project, which is fully funded through 2027, aims to support the rapid growth of artificial intelligence and cloud computing infrastructure in the region.
Job creation is a core part of the initiative, with Google pledging to generate thousands of construction and operations jobs across these sites. Specifically, the plan includes workforce development programs that will train over 1,700 apprentices in electrical trades and high-skill areas by 2030, essentially doubling the anticipated pipeline of new electricians in Texas. These programs are set to benefit both college students and skilled tradespeople, ensuring a long-term positive impact on the regional workforce.
Along with providing significant economic benefits and new job opportunities, Google’s investment will also fund initiatives to improve energy reliability and affordability, as well as contribute to local agricultural and educational programs throughout Texas.
This investment solidifies the state’s growing status as a national leader in AI infrastructure and underscores the escalating competition between major tech companies for data center dominance.
FEMA Headquarters May Move to Texas
The Trump administration is giving serious consideration to moving the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) headquarters from Washington to Texas. The state’s top emergency manager – Nim Kidd – is also under consideration for the new head of FEMA. Kidd was interviewed and courted by the Trump administration shortly after President Trump took office in January, but Kidd stated publicly that “my work in Texas is not done” and that he has no desire to move to Washington. Current FEMA director David Richardson recently resigned after a six-month tenure leading the agency.
President Trump has a review panel in place to monitor and assess FEMA activities. That panel is expected to send a recommendation to the President that will call for moving FEMA headquarters to Texas, in part to accommodate Kidd. Kidd is also a member of the FEMA review panel. Kidd played a major role in the aftermath of the July 4th flooding in the Hill Country and has continued to coordinate recovery efforts with Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. FEMA operations are ultimately overseen by the DHS.
Critics of the move say having FEMA away from Washington would create a logistical nightmare when trying to coordinate with DHS in times of disaster. But Kidd is seen to meet all qualifications and has extensive experience running the agency here in Texas. Plus, Senate confirmation of Kidd would seem likely.
No timetable has been given for the formal recommendation of the proposed move or the appointment of Kidd, but both moves seem imminent since the agency is operating without a full-time administrator.
National Guard Troops Recalled from Chicago, Portland
The Department of Defense has ordered Texas National Guard troops to return to their home states following an order from a US District Judge that the Trump administration had no justification for sending military assistance to those cities.
Texas deployed approximately 200 National Guard troops to Chicago in October in response to protests surrounding the immigration enforcement actions by Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents. Texas subsequently deployed a smaller number of troops to Portland for the same purpose. After an appeals court upheld the ruling from the US District Judge in northern Illinois, the US Supreme Court only asked for supplemental briefing materials and did not make a ruling on the rulings from the lower courts.
In response, the US Northern Command issued a statement saying they would be shifting their footprint in Chicago and Portland and committed to maintaining a long-term presence in each city to assist law enforcement personnel.
Thanksgiving Travel
AAA is projecting record travel numbers for Texans during the Thanksgiving holiday week. They estimate 5.8 million Texans will travel 50 miles or more to celebrate the holiday. If these estimates are realized, it will be the 7th straight year to see increased numbers of travelers throughout the state. Most will travel by car, with another 328,000 expected to fly to their destination. Another 140,000 are expected to travel by other means including bus or train. Bush Intercontinental Airport officials are expected travel numbers to exceed 2 million for the week. Good news for drivers is that gas prices are basically the same as last year, with Texans paying an average of $2.61 per gallon.
Nationally, a record 82 million people are expected to travel for the holiday. 90% of the travel is expected to be by car.
Political Notes
Gov. Abbott this week set the date of January 31st for the runoff election for Texas Senate District 9 in Tarrant County. The runoff will be between Republican Leigh Wambsganss, and Democrat Taylor Rehmet to determine who will serve the remainder of the unexpired term that lasts until December of 2026. In the initial round of voting earlier this month, Rehmet received 48% of the vote to 36% for Wambsganss. A third candidate, Republican John Huffman, received 16% of the vote. Huffman has endorsed Wambsganss in the runoff. The seat was formerly held by Kelly Hancock, who resigned in June to become acting state Comptroller. Even though the Democrat led the way in the first round of voting, Republicans are favored to retain the seat. The same three candidates will also run in 2026 for the full four-year term to begin in January of 2027.
The special election for Congressional District 18 in Houston has also been set for January 31st. Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee will face former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, with the winner serving out the term of the late Sylvester Turner who passed away in March. The solidly blue district comprises areas of downtown Houston and runs through central Houston to areas surrounding Intercontinental Airport. Menefee and Edwards were the top two finishers among 16 candidates. The two candidates will then face off again in 2026 in the race for the full two-year term beginning in 2027.
Shortly after the newly drawn Congressional maps were approved, longtime Austin Congressman Lloyd Doggett announced he would not seek reelection to Congress. Under the new plan, Doggett’s district was combined with fellow Austin Democrat Greg Casar, leaving room for only one Austin area Democrat to run. Now that the new maps have been overturned – at least temporarily – Doggett is back in. He announced immediately after the court ruling that if the current maps were back in place, he would seek reelection in 2026. Doggett was first elected to Congress in 1994 and is the Dean of the Texas Congressional delegation. Doggett has also served in the Texas Senate and was the 1984 Democratic nominee for the US Senate, eventually losing to Republican Phil Gramm.
Two-time Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor Mike Collier of Houston has entered the race again for Lt. Governor, challenging Republican incumbent Dan Patrick for a third time. However, he will now be running as an independent, saying that is the only way to unite Texas voters. Collier lost the 2022 race to Patrick by 10 points. Patrick is seeking his fourth term as Lt. Governor. In the general election, Collier will face Patrick and likely Democratic nominee Vicki Goodwin, Democratic state Representative from Austin.
What’s Next??
The candidate filing period for those seeking office in 2026 has begun and runs through December 8th. Along with the status of the state’s appeal to the ruling on the Congressional redistricting issue, we will monitor the filings and continue to watch the retirements and other movements regarding the 2026 races for legislative, congressional, and statewide offices.
With Thanksgiving next week, there will be no update. The update will return the week of December 8th. As always, I will keep you all updated on any major developments in the meantime.
Have a great and safe Thanksgiving!!!