Here’s a quick recap of what happened over the last week:
Former Governor Weighs in on Speaker Race
Former Governor Rick Perry campaigned vigorously for incumbent House Speaker Dade Phelan in the spring when he was forced into a runoff to retain his House seat based in Beaumont. Even though Phelan was reelected, he faces stiff opposition from the right wing of his party to retain the Speaker’s gavel for the 2025 session.
Now Perry is going on the offensive for Phelan, making several media appearances and commenting on social media advocating for Phelan to once again lead the lower chamber next year. Over the weekend, in an interview on Austin TV, Perry declared emphatically that Phelan had the votes to be reelected Speaker. Perry went on to say he is not even concerned with the question of Phelan being reelected Speaker, rather he is trying to help the House members “focus on moving the state forward.” Phelan faces a challenge from fellow Republican David Cook of Mansfield, who has not shown that he has the 76 votes needed in the 150-member House to be elected Speaker. The question Phelan now faces from his colleagues is does he have the votes. He continues to say he has the necessary votes – a combination of Democrats and less than a majority of Republicans – but he has not shown a list of committed members.
This brings to light another problem Phelan faces which is the traditional practice of not allowing the Republican caucus to solely elect the Speaker, due to their 88-62 seat majority. This is the method the US House uses to select a Speaker – select a Speaker in the caucus and then all members are bound to vote for that member on the floor. But there have been questions regarding Phelan’s ability to secure the 45 votes within the Republican caucus. Phelan also vows to continue the tradition of appointing Democrats to chair, another practice that many of the current Republicans oppose.
So, the Speaker’s race remains unsettled for now. And the rumors of who does and does not have the votes will continue. Republicans will caucus on December 7th to select their Speaker candidate.
More Data from the Election
More research and reflection on the recently concluded election shows that Democrats not only failed to show up in November, but also voted in significantly fewer numbers in the March primary, which in all likelihood sealed the fate of the eventual outcome of the election. According to a full analysis by data crunching firm Ryan and Associates, Republicans outvoted Democrats by over 1 million people – 2.3 million to 1 million — in the primary. Historically, most people that vote in the primary come back to the polls for the November election.
And even though there were more raw votes in this year’s election, the percentage of those turning out was lower that the turnout percentage in 2020. This year, 60.6% of registered voters – 11,340,202 – cast a ballot. That is lower than the 66.4% that turned out for the Presidential election in 2020. In 2020, Trump won the state over Joe Biden by just 5 percentage points. This year, he bested Kamala Harris by 14 points. This strongly suggests that Republican voters were much more motivated to turn out this year compared to 2020.
That trend of more Republicans voting in each demographic was consistent regarding gender and age data as well. Review of the turnout this year shows 1 million more women voted than men and about half of all ballots cast this year were from Texans aged 50 or older. What is interesting about the age-related data is that there are roughly 1 million more registered voters from the age of 18-29 than those that are older than 70. But roughly 200,000 more voters that are 70 or older showed up than those of 18-29 years old.
Bible Curriculum Proposed for Public Schools
The State Board of Education took public testimony this week regarding the proposed Open Education Resources (OER), which are materials that can be used in schools without getting permission from the copyright holders. The program is being developed in accordance with legislation passed last session that calls for the state to develop curriculum from free education materials that have gone through a new evaluation process, including a requirement that the materials contain no obscene or harmful content.
The reading and lesson plans that have been included in the new OER curriculum contain references to several different religions, with an emphasis on Christianity and historical teachings from the Bible. Several liberal advocacy groups have testified in opposition to this portion of OER, saying that the new curriculum is promoting “Christian Nationalism”. Conservative groups have countered that this new curriculum furthers the principles on which the country was founded and should be part of all classroom teaching. Local school districts are not mandated to teach the new curriculum, but there is financial incentive – and funding from the legislature – to accept the new curriculum if approved by the Board.
Testimony continues on the proposal through today, and the Board will make a recommendation later this month on whether to approve the new curriculum for all public schools.
Bill to Recall US Senators
US Senators representing Texas – Ted Cruz and John Cornyn – could be recalled under proposed legislation prefiled last week. HB 1267 by Rep. Brian Harrison, Republican of Waxahachie, proposes to pass into law a method for ousting our US Senators by a simple majority vote of both chambers of the legislature.
Until passage of the 17th amendment to the US Constitution, US Senators were elected by the legislatures in each state. After the 17th amendment was added to the Constitution in 1913, US Senators have been elected by a popular vote in each state. Harrison says the 17th amendment has “significantly diminished the rights given to the states and the people” and his legislation is necessary to “restore appropriate balance between the state and federal government.” Harrison also says this bill will ensure that our US Senators will serve the best interests of the state. Under Harrison’s proposal, a Senator that is recalled by the legislature would have to leave on the day of a successful recall vote.
Border News
Texas has offered 1,400 acres along the border to assist the Trump administration with its proposal for mass deportations. The state has sent a letter to the Trump transition team stating they are ready to enter into an agreement with all relative agencies – Department of Homeland Security, Border Patrol, Customs Enforcement – to allow a facility to be built to process and detain migrants for deportation. The state bought the land last month along a 1.5 mile stretch in Starr County last month. The Trump administration reportedly wants to double the 41,000 detention beds available Customs Enforcement to hold immigrants while they await deportation.
The state is also increasing the number of buoys in the Rio Grande River near Eagle Pass. Texas is adding to the 1,000 feet of buoys already in place in the river, which has provoked a lawsuit from the federal government that says the state has no right to place the buoys in waters under federal jurisdiction. The buoys are four feet in diameter and spin if anyone tries to climb them and have netting to prevent swimming underneath. In the announcement by Gov. Abbott this week of the plans for the additional barriers he did not specify how much the chain would be extended. But he did say the state would eventually deploy 3,000 feet of buoys in the Rio Grande.
University News
The University of Texas will begin offering free tuition for students of families that make less than $100,000 per year beginning next fall. The board of regents approved the measure this week that will apply to all nine of the system’s undergraduate institutions. According to UT System, 56% of its undergraduate students receive some sort of financial aid. The University of Texas System is the largest in the state, and one of the largest in the country with over 250,000 students and 83,000 faculty and staff. It is supported by a $42.7 billion endowment. All undergraduate institutions will now receive a $35 million infusion to offset the cost for tuition.
The Texas Tech System Board of Regents has asked the state to ignore a law that prohibits Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) payments to high school students and recruits. With the onset of NIL payments across college athletics, Texas passed a law in 2021 allowing for the payment of college athletes for the use of their “name, image, and likeness”. The law prohibits the payments to high school students and recruits, or prospective student athletes. Not all states have the restriction against paying recruits, and the Tech regents say that places them at an unfair advantage. Tech regents said they will lobby the legislature to change the law in the upcoming session but would like the Governor to step in and ensure the state does not enforce the law until it can be changed. No word from Gov. Abbott regarding the request.
Political Notes
President-Elect Trump returned to Texas for the first time since the election this week when he attended the launch of the Space X test flight on Tuesday at the Boca Chica launch site near Brownsville. Trump stood with Elon Musk as he explained the details of the test flight. Trump and Musk have developed a strong alliance since the beginning of the Presidential campaign and Trump’s presence at the lunch is another indication of how involved Musk will be in the next administration. Senator Ted Cruz was also present at the event.
The New York Times recently published a report detailing the $1.5 billion that was spent by the Harris/Walz campaign. Social media influencers, high salaries for staff, extravagant rallies, celebrity concerts, and the Oprah Winfrey town hall are all part of the spending spree that saw the campaign spend about $100 million per week. The campaign also spent roughly $600 million on television advertising and another $900,000 on the exterior of The Sphere in Las Vegas during the final week of the campaign. But it wasn’t enough. The campaign finds itself to be in about $20 million of debt. So, the campaign is now soliciting contributions to try and pay off the remaining bills. And despite all of the cash they brought in and spent, Kamala Harris was the first Democratic Presidential nominee to lose the popular vote since George Bush won 50.7% of the popular vote in 2004.
We all remember seeing the poll from the Des Moines Register on the Sunday before the election that mysteriously and miraculously showed Kamala Harris leading President-Elect Trump by 3 percentage points in the heavily Republican state of Iowa. The poll – conducted by Ann Selzer – showed Harris with a 47% to 44% advantage over Trump. To say there was criticism and skepticism regarding that poll is an understatement. Every other poll by major and reputable organizations showed Trump comfortably ahead in Iowa. Media outlets from all persuasions questioned the methodology and accuracy of the poll, and many accused Selzer of simply trying to force her bias to try and show Trump was primed for an upset. Trump won the state by a 13-point margin – 56%-43%. In embarrassment, Selzer admitted the poll was a “big miss” and was quoted as saying the poll probably energized Trump supporters to prove the inaccuracy of the poll. In the aftermath, Selzer has announced her “retirement” from the Des Moines Register.
Thanksgiving Travel
Another record-breaking number of Americans will travel for Thanksgiving this year. AAA estimates nearly 80 million people will either fly or drive to visit family and friends for the Thanksgiving holiday. Thanksgiving is historically the biggest holiday for travel. Based on seats already booked by airlines, airports will see a nearly 5% increase in passengers compared to last year. Sunday December 1st will be the busiest day for airports. If traveling by car, the most congestion will be on Wednesday from 1PM to 7PM and then again on Friday afternoon as well.
What’s Next??
There are no hearings scheduled next week, as members are now starting to concentrate on the upcoming session. They will also continue to raise funds before the December 14th deadline to accept campaign contributions.
With the Thanksgiving holiday next week, there will be no update. As always, I will let you all know of any major developments should any happen next week.
Have a great and safe Thanksgiving, and please look for the next update on December 6th.
There are 52 days until the start of the regular legislative session.