Here’s a quick recap of what happened over the last week:
Final Turnout Numbers in Texas
A total of 11,304,202 Texans cast a ballot on Tuesday, which translates to 61% of the state’s 18.6 million registered voters. The raw number of voters surpassed the 2020 total, but the turnout percentage dropped by nearly 6 points.
The larger counties – and the most reliably Democratic in the state – saw the largest drop in turnout compared to 2020. In 2020, President Biden outpolled President Trump by 13 points in Harris County. This year, Vice-President Harris won the county by only 5 points. This follows a trend nationally where Harris consistently underperformed in urban and metropolitan areas compared to how Biden performed in 2020. The state’s four largest counties – Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Travis – experienced a turnout rate of only 49.9%. The state’s most reliably Republican counties – including suburban and rural counties – saw a turnout rate of 61.6%
Rio Grande Valley Turns Republican
In what is looked at as the most surprising development of the night, the Republican Party has made significant strides among the state’s growing Hispanic population. The Hispanic community has been a reliable constituency for the Democratic Party for decades in Texas. But now, the trend has been reversed. President Trump captured 55% of the Hispanic vote statewide, compared to 44% for Harris, according to exit polls. This is the first time a Presidential candidate has ever won the Hispanic vote in Texas.
In the border region, Trump won 14 of 18 counties within 20 miles of the border, including all four counties in the Rio Grande Valley. In 2020, Trump garnered just 29% of the vote in the Valley. This was apparent by the local races there. Incumbent Republican state Rep. Janie Lopez of Brownsville easily won reelection to her second term in the Texas House. And Republican challenger Adam Hinojosa defeated incumbent Democrat Morgan LaMantia of Brownsville to place the Valley Senate seat in Republican hands for the first time ever.
State Democratic Party Chair to Resign
Obviously when your party suffers such a substantial defeat in the state, the blame game starts. Since Tuesday, it has intensified among Democrats in the state. State party chair Gilberto Hinojosa also added to the party dissention on Wednesday when he implied the party’s support of transgender rights was one of the reasons the party experienced the number of losses. Hinojosa told Austin public radio station KUT that “you have a choice as a party…to support transgender rights up and down or you can understand that there are certain things we go too far on, that a big bulk of our population does not support.” His comments drew immediate backlash from party faithful with many calling for his resignation.
This morning, party insider and Houston-based political consultant Shea Jordan Smith tweeted out that Hinojosa will announce his resignation today. This would mark the end of a 14-year tenure for Hinojosa. He was first elected to lead the party at the party convention in June of 2012. Under his tenure, no Democrat has won a statewide race and the majorities in both Houses of the legislature have grown. Prior to leading the state party, he served as Cameron County Judge from 1995-2006.
Other Notes from Election Day
A couple of other notes of interest from Tuesday. Speaking of Hispanic voting trends, Trump carried Starr County near Laredo. This population of Starr County is 97% Hispanic and voted for a Republican Presidential candidate for the first time since 1896.
Despite being under a federal indictment for bribery and corruption charges, Democratic Congressman Henry Cuellar of Laredo was easily reelected to his 11th term in Congress. Cuellar was first elected in 2004 and is one of the longest serving members of the Texas Congressional delegation. He also sits on the powerful House Appropriations Committee, allowing him to direct and prioritize federal funding to Texas. Even with the cloud of corruption and the pending criminal trial hanging over the campaign, the Republican Party did not prioritize defeating Cuellar. He defeated political newcomer Jay Furman by nearly 6 points.
Voters in Houston soundly rejected a proposed $4.4 billion bond proposal for upgrades and improvements to schools and facilities in the Houston Independent School District. The bond package put forth by the HISD board was the largest ever bond package proposed in Texas history. Politics was more at play than the need for facilities upgrades in this election. In 2023, the state began a takeover of HISD in response to poor student performance and allegations of mismanagement by the elected HISD board members. A vigorous campaign was mounted by grassroots activists to encourage Houston voters to oppose the bond package as a statement against the state takeover of a local school district. The bond proposal failed with 58% in opposition.
And now with election day concluded, we in the lobby have a lot of new names and faces to learn going into the session.
In the Senate, there are three new members – one Democrat and two Republicans.
But in the House, there are 32 new members that were elected on Tuesday. 26 Republicans and 6 Democrats.
Abbott Advocates for School Choice
The 26 new Republican members referenced above are considered generally more conservative than the member they are succeeding. In fact, 15 of the members won Republican primary races over a more moderate opponent. School choice was a major issue in Republican primary races earlier this year. Now, with what is seemingly the much more conservative majority in the Texas House, Gov. Abbott has proclaimed that there are sufficient votes to pass a school choice – or voucher – bill next session.
During the last 2 sessions of the legislature, the Texas Senate has passed a school choice plan that provides state money for families to use for tuition for private schools. Moderate House Republicans have teamed up with Democrats to derail the legislation in the Texas House. That coalition is concerned with a diversion of state funds for private tuition and the negative effect that could have on funding for public schools. Abbott has pledged to fully fund public schools and give teacher pay raises in addition to fully funding a new state voucher program.
The state is projected to once again have a substantial budget surplus of as much as $20 billion. However, the state Comptroller has already cautioned lawmakers of a decrease of as much as 23% in the state cash balance due to the recent property tax relief legislation passed that replaced a portion of local property tax revenue with state revenue. This legislation restricted the amount and rate that can be charged by local entities and requires the state to replace the lost revenue through what is called “hold harmless” measures with the goal of allowing school districts to maintain funding levels.
Cruz Gets Query from FEC
The Federal Elections Commission has asked US Senator Ted Cruz to provide an explanation for a series of $1 million in contributions that appear to exceed the $3,300 individual contribution limit in federal races. According to the letter sent to Cruz by the FEC, the commission raised concerns over contributions by roughly 200 individuals that exceed the limit. These are generally not one-time contributions but are a series of contributions from these individuals that violate the $3,300 threshold. The Cruz campaign was given a deadline of December 9th to either respond to the letter or return the contributions. Cruz raised over $75 million in his just concluded reelection campaign against Democrat Colin Allred. Cruz has also received a formal complaint from the FEC regarding payments received by the campaign from proceeds derived from a podcast hosted by Cruz.
Odds and Ends
October was the hottest and driest on record for most parts of the state. Instead of ushering in fall temperatures, October felt like an extension of summer for most of us. The average daily high temperature in the Austin/San Antonio area was 90.3 degrees. That is 8 degrees above the October average temperature over the last 120 years. Dallas had an average overall temperature of 75.7 degrees, which was 1.6 degrees above normal. Austin went over 60 days – including the entire month of October – with no measurable rainfall. The last measurable rainfall in Austin was August 21st until storms moved through earlier this week and dumped over 2 inches across much of the area.
Fire crews continue to battle the Hudson Fire near Bastrop that has burned an estimated 400 acres between Bastrop State Park and Smithville. Sixty people were initially evacuated, and several remain under an evacuation order. The good news is that as of Wednesday evening, the fire was 85% contained.
If you live in or visit Austin and have to drive on I-35 near downtown, your traffic nightmare will be getting worse. The Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) broke ground on a $5.6 billion project to add two non-toll lanes and HOV lanes from US 290 east – north of downtown – to Highway 71/Ben White Blvd in south Austin. The upper decks just to the east of the downtown area will also be removed to allow for plazas that will accommodate bicycle and pedestrian traffic. Construction has begun at the intersection of MLK and I-35 near the UT campus and is expected to last for nine years.
Political Notes
Texas House Republicans announced immediately after the election that they will hold a caucus meeting on Saturday, December 7th to select a Speaker candidate for the upcoming regular session. Incumbent Dade Phelan faces stiff opposition from his own party. Rep. David Cook of Mansfield claims to have a majority support of the caucus, while Phelan will likely have to rely on the support of the Democrats to reach the 76 votes necessary to take the gavel in 2025.
Houston area state Rep. Christina Morales has dropped out of the race for chair of the Mexican American Legislative Caucus. Current chair of the caucus – Rep. Victoria Neave – will not return to the House in 2025, leaving a vacancy. Morales announced her bid to become chair in September at the annual meeting of the caucus but has now decided against running. That leaves Rep. Ramon Romero of Fort Worth as the only candidate to lead the caucus in 2025.
Now that the election is over, members will be trying to replenish their campaign accounts. Elected officials at the state level cannot accept political contributions during the period beginning 30 days prior to the regular session, lasting until 20 days after the session has concluded. Their last day to accept contributions is December 14th. Most – if not all – of the 181 members of the legislature, and all statewide officials will hold fundraising events in Austin and throughout their districts over the next 40 days to fatten up their accounts as much as possible before the deadline.
What’s Next??
Next week, the Senate Committee on Higher Education meets on Monday to discuss the role of Faculty Senate at universities and to discuss the phasing out of diversity, equity, and inclusion programs at state supported universities.
The Senate Health and Human Services Committee meets on Wednesday to discuss the state programs related to assisting the elderly and infirmed during times of emergency and natural disaster.
The Senate Natural Resources and Economic Development Committee meets on Thursday to discuss improving access to childcare as it relates to improved workplace productivity.
Here is a link to the full list of hearings later this fall, and the agenda for each hearing: https://capitol.texas.gov
There are 66 days until the start of the regular legislative session. With the election over, full preparations for the session are underway. On Tuesday, members can begin filing legislation for the upcoming session.