Here’s a quick recap of what happened over the last week:
Early Voting Starts Monday
Early voting for the November 5th election starts this Monday, October 21st and runs through Friday, November 1st. Early voting has become the preferred method of casting a ballot for Texans in recent elections. In 2020 – the last Presidential election – 9,720,543 voted in person or by mail during the early vote period. That was 57.3% of all registered voters in the state and surpassed the total number votes cast in the 2016 Presidential election, when 8,969,226 Texans voted.
The midterm elections are a different story. In 2022 – when all statewide offices such as Governor, Lt. Governor, etc were up for reelection – turnout during the early vote period dropped to 31%, which was significantly less than the 53% early vote total in 2018 when Ted Cruz was being challenged by Beto O’Rourke.
Texas now has over 18 million registered voters and if this year follows the trend of the 2020 Presidential election, then the state may have over 10 million people cast an early ballot.
For all information related to early voting, including acceptable forms of ID, early voting locations, and links to your local county elections office, go to: https://www.votetexas.gov
Speaker Announces Work Groups
Even though the reelection of incumbent Dade Phelan to the role of Speaker is not a certainty, he is moving forward with preparations for the upcoming regular session that will begin in January. Yesterday, Phelan announced the formation of a series of “working groups” that will begin to review issues that are anticipated to be major topics during the session. According to the announcement – sent to House members yesterday – the work groups are tasked with providing a “nonpartisan, constructive forum for members with interest in certain policy areas… to collaborate with colleagues ahead of session.” The work groups are intended to compliment the work being done by the House standing committees on relevant issues and work towards recommending legislation to address concerns and suggest improvements in the various policy areas.
The policy areas that Phelan identifies for the work include budget reform, childcare affordability, water supply and infrastructure, access to health care, housing affordability, and rising insurance costs. Phelan directs the members to contact his staff by next week if they are interested in participating in any of the working groups. We will certainly keep you all updated on any progress and recommendations regarding any of these policy areas.
Presidential Polling Numbers
An NBC News poll released on Monday shows former President Trump and Vice-President Kamala Harris in a dead heat. The new poll conducted from October 4th-8th among 1,000 registered voters showed both candidates receiving the support of 48% of the respondents. This is a big gain for Trump, who trailed Harris by a 49% to 44% margin in a September NBC News poll. The poll indicates Harris’ popularity on the decline after a summertime boost that included her receiving the nomination and performance at the only Presidential debate. Harris’ approval ratings also have fallen. The September poll showed her with a 48% positivity rating compared to a 45% unfavorable rating. Now, she is “underwater” with a 43% positive vs 49% negative. Trump’s numbers in this regard remain basically the same, with a 43% positive rating compared to a 51% negative.
The full poll can be found here: https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/25201760/240478-nbc-october-2024-poll_101324-release.pdf
Cruz/Allred Race Update
Incumbent Republican Ted Cruz and Democratic challenger Colin Allred held their only debate on Tuesday in Dallas. Cruz continued his focus of criticizing Allred for his support of legislation supporting the transgender community while Allred countered by criticizing Cruz for doing nothing in the Senate but grandstand on partisan issues. Allred also continued his theme of attacking Cruz for his lack of compassion for women’s health care due to his stand on abortion legislation. Allred also pointed several times to Cruz’s trip to Cancun during the 2021 winter storm as evidence of his lack of concern for Texans on basic issues and needs. All in all, there was a great deal of sniping and bickering, with no real clear winner.
Prior to the debate, the two camps had been trading barbs through commercials. Cruz has focused on Allred’s apparent support of legislation and policy regarding transgender issues. Allred released an ad over the weekend trying to combat that narrative, claiming Cruz is lying about his record and that he “doesn’t want boys playing girls’ sports, or any of the ridiculous stuff Ted Cruz is saying.” The need for the ad obviously came from voter feedback showing the ads to be somewhat effective.
For his part, Cruz is spending big on televised sporting events to get out his message this fall. According to research done by the Houston Chronicle, Cruz spent $171,000 on a 30-second ad that was run on a Dallas station during the Cowboys-Lions game. That is more than double the $80,000 tab for a 30-second ad to run on Houston TV during a Texans game. As a sidenote, the Cowboys average nearly 26 million viewers weekly compared to just shy of 20 million viewers for the Texans. Cruz has also paid $7,000 per ad for a series of ads to run on a Houston TV station during the first two games of baseball’s World Series that will start later this month. Depending on who is playing in the World Series, viewership will be between 9 and 12 million per game. Last year’s World Series had the lowest viewership ever, averaging about 9 million viewers per game.
Both candidates have bought TV time for Cowboys games aired in Houston and San Antonio for the last three weeks of the campaign. Ads airing in Houston will cost $30,000 per ad while the ads aired in San Antonio will cost $20,000 per ad.
And speaking of money, a report in the Texas Tribune yesterday detailed the staggering amount of money that has gone into this race. So far, the two candidates have raised a total of $136 million. Cruz has raised $61.3 million, and Allred has raised $74.7 million. These totals reflect money raised across all avenues, including money given directly to candidates as well as money given to PAC’s supporting each candidate.
Comparatively, in the 2018 race, Cruz raised $48.8 million, while Beto O’Rourke raised $100.7 million.
There are still 18 days to go until the election, so these figures can and will increase significantly.
Cruz is still shown to have a slight lead in most polls, but all indications are that the race will be decided by a very slim margin on election day.
Voting/Election News
Certain provisions of the 2021 Texas voting law were initially ruled unconstitutional by a federal judge in San Antonio last week. Most of the provisions that were struck down related to restrictions regarding the handling of ballots or “vote harvesting”. These provisions addressed those involved with assisting voters in need and called for a ban on accepting payment for assisting a voter and the requirement that anyone who assists a voter must sign an oath that declares the voter needs assistance. Disclosures regarding the relationship between the helper and voter were also struck down. The judge based his decision on the federal Voting Rights Act, that guarantees voters with disabilities or literacy limitations can receive assistance.
Soon after the bill was signed into law in 2021, several groups filed suit to stop these provisions of the bill in federal court. The ruling was issued by Xavier Rodriguez of the Western District of Texas, originally appointed by President George W. Bush in 2003. He said the provisions were overly “vague” and therefore did not meet judicial standards.
But this week, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals temporarily reinstated the provisions related to vote harvesting and allowed them to stay in place at least through the November 5th election, saying the law has been on the books for three years and that it was too close to the election to change the law.
In other news, Secretary of State Jane Nelson has updated an advisory to local election officials that had initially given the approval to accept temporary licenses as a valid ID to vote. Many in the far-right wing of the party felt this policy would lead to noncitizens being allowed to vote, since there are forms of temporary identification issued to noncitizens in some circumstances. The updated advisory instructs local election officials to also require documentation – such as a naturalization card – when presenting a temporary ID to vote.
Rate Increase Rejected
The Texas Department of Insurance has rejected a rate increase request from the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association (TWIA) – the insurer of last resort providing residential and commercial policies for wind and hail damage in the state’s 14 coastal counties. TWIA had asked for a 10% rate hike that would have raised the insurance premiums of roughly 250,000 Texas residents and business owners. TWIA defended the request by saying their own analysis had shown current rates do not cover current expenses and losses, as well as projected losses for 2025. Their analysis was released one week before Hurricane Beryl made landfall in the Houston area. TWIA said it has received over 31,000 claims related to Beryl and is projected to pay out over $250 million in claims. The Catastrophe Reserve Trust Fund will be left with less than $200 million for the remainder of this year and into 2025.
In rejecting the rate increase request, the Department of Insurance said the increase in premiums would place an even larger burden on coastal area homeowners that are already subjected to rising insurance costs for basic homeowner coverage. TWIA warns that they will come to the legislature in January for relief to help restore their Reserve Trust Fund so they will have sufficient funds to cover claims if there is a major storm in Texas in 2025.
Political Notes
Elon Musk continues to pour money into the Presidential race to the benefit of former President Trump. Musk has donated $75 million to America PAC, formed to work independently from the Trump campaign, but with the sole purpose of helping Trump return to the White House. Musk’s most recent contribution to the PAC of $30 million came on September 5th, according to Federal Election Commission filings.
A former aide to Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller has pleaded guilty to felony bribery charges for soliciting and taking money in exchange for the issuance of hemp licenses that are issued by the Department of Agriculture. The charges are from a 2021 arrest that detailed the aide – Todd Smith – and his involvement in a scheme to solicit $150,000 for a “guarantee” for an exclusive license to manufacture hemp products. Smith will be placed on probation and according to his attorney, the charges will be dismissed after two years, pending certain conditions.
Former state Rep. Eddie Lucio, III has endorsed fellow Democrat Morgan LaMantia for her reelection bid just two days after his father endorsed the Republican challenger, Adam Hinojosa. LaMantia is in her first term in the Texas Senate, representing a Rio Grande Valley based district. Hinojosa is from Corpus in the northern part of the district. This is a rematch of the 2022 contest that saw LaMantia defeat Hinojosa by less than 700 votes out of over 175,000 cast. The elder Lucio represented the district as a Democrat for 30 years but crossed party lines last week to give Hinojosa the nod. The younger Lucio – who served from 2007 to 2021 – endorsed LaMantia, saying she has been an effective leader for the Valley.
What’s Next??
The House Criminal Jurisprudence Committee will meet Monday to discuss procedures related to capital punishment.
The Senate Committee on Natural Resources and Economic Development will meet on Thursday to discuss workforce productivity and the availability of affordable childcare.
Here is a link to the full list of hearings later this summer and fall, and the agenda for each hearing: https://capitol.texas.gov
There are 18 days until the general election and 87 days until the start of the regular legislative session. There are only 24 days until the start of prefiling of legislation for the regular session. Prefiling begins on the Monday after the general election.