Here’s a quick recap of what happened over the last week:
Election Day is Tuesday
Early voting ends later today for Tuesday’s election. The only statewide matters under consideration are the 17 proposed constitutional amendments that were sent to the voters by the legislature for approval. Highlighting the proposals are a $20 billion plan to establish a new fund dedicated to water infrastructure and supply projects. Other major proposals include a change in what types of offenses for which bail can be denied and the establishment of a new fund dedicated to research for dementia and Alzheimer’s.
In a statement released this week by Texas Secretary of State Jane Nelson, there were 561,819 ballots cast during the first week of early voting, which represents 3% of the state’s 18.4 million registered voters.
For all information relating to voting including links to polling locations, hours, and acceptable forms of voter ID, visit https://www.votetexas.gov
There are also two special elections that will garner attention. First, voters in the 18th Congressional District in Houston will choose a successor to the late Sylvester Turner, who passed away in March while serving in Congress. This is the same seat held by the late Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee for 30 years. Numerous candidates are vying to fill out the term that ends in December of 2025 including former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards and Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee.
In Fort Worth, voters will choose a successor to former state Senator Kelly Hancock, who resigned in June after being appointed interim Comptroller. Grassroots activist Leigh Wambsganss is facing off against former Southlake Mayor John Huffman. Both are Republicans. The lone Democrat in the race is Taylor Rehmet, a local union president. The district – comprising areas of northwest Tarrant County – is solidly Republican. Since this is a special election, there is no primary contest. If a runoff is needed, the top two vote getters will face off regardless of party affiliation. Wambsganss can tout the endorsement of Lt. Governor Dan Patrick while Huffman is backed by influential state Rep. Charlie Geren of Fort Worth as well as Fort Worth Mayor Mattie Parker.
The winner of the special election will serve out the remainder of the term, ending in December of 2025. Since the term for the seat is up for reelection in 2026, the same three candidates will also face off in the 2026 election cycle.
Texas Politics Project Poll
The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project recently conducted a poll of registered voters in Texas to determine voter attitudes on major issues and to gauge the approval ratings of our statewide officials.
Key findings focused on the economy and the government shutdown. Of interest, 43% of the respondents said their family’s economic situation was worse than a year ago, with 35% saying they are better off than a year ago. More than half of the Texans polled – 51% — disapprove of the way President Trump is handling the shutdown. They also place blame on the political parties and the way they are handling the shutdown. 50% disapprove of the way Republicans in Congress are handling the shutdown and 52% disapprove of the Democrats’ handling of the shutdown. A large majority – 61% — believe the shutdown is bad for the state.
What gets really interesting is the disparity in the approval/disapproval numbers for many of our statewide elected officials when the numbers are broken down to a partisan level. For example, President Trump’s overall approval rating among all respondents was 42%, with 51% saying they disapproved of his job performance. However, when among the respondents identifying themselves as Republicans, Trump received an approval rating of 84%, with only 8% disapproval.
The trend continues among all statewide officials. Among all voters, Gov. Abbott received a 32% approval compared to a 47% disapproval rating. But among Republican, his numbers were 76% approval compared to a 13% disapproval.
Looking at the two main candidates for the Republican nomination for the US Senate, incumbent John Cornyn has a 43% approval rate among Republicans, and a 24% disapproval rating. His rating among all voters is a 24%/46% approval/disapproval rating. But his opponent – Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton – has a 55% approval rating among the party faithful compared to a 16% disapproval rating. Among all voters, Paxton has a 28%/44% approval/disapproval rating.
The numbers that all statewide officials will focus on are those regarding the Republican voters. The trend for the past 30 years in Texas has seen Republicans turn out in much higher numbers than the Democrats. In the 2024 Presidential election, a total of 11,388,674 Texans cast a vote, with President Trump receiving 6,393,597 votes, or 56.1% of the votes cast.
Also, for comparison in 2022 — the last election when all statewide candidates – Governor, Lt. Governor, Comptroller, AG, etc – were up for election, 1,950,000 Texans voted in the Republican primary compared to slightly more than 1 million that voted in the Democratic primary.
No Democrat has won a statewide race since 1994 in Texas, and the trends give no indication that will change in the 2026 elections.
The Texas Politics Project poll was conducted among 1,200 self-described registered – not likely – voters via outreach on the internet. The polling was done from October 10th-20th. You can view a full breakdown of the poll here: https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/with-2026-elections-just-over-the-horizon-economic-concerns-deepen-in-new-ut-texas-politics-project-poll
State Senator to Run for Congress
Democratic Austin state Senator Sarah Eckhardt is running for the Democratic nomination for Congressional District 10. This is a newly redrawn district now running from western Travis County east to take in rural counties in deep east Texas. The district has a strong Republican voting base and is drawn to elect a Republican. But this is a free run for Eckhardt. She is not up for reelection until 2028 so she will not have to give up her state Senate seat to make this run.
The seat will be open in 2026 due to the retirement of incumbent Republican Michael McCaul of Austin. There are currently 10 Republicans vying for the nomination, including Austin attorney Chris Gober, former counsel to both the national and state parties. Eckhardt acknowledges that this will be an uphill battle due to the 61% base Republican voters in the district.
Eckhardt is serving her first full term in the Texas Senate. She is a former Travis County commissioner and County Judge. Her father served in Congress from 1967 to 1980, and her mother served under Lyndon Baines Johnson during his tenure as US Senate majority leader in the 1950’s.
State Suing Tylenol
Attorney General Ken Paxton has filed a lawsuit against the makers of the common pain relief medicine Tylenol, alleging they deceptively marketed the drug as safe for pregnant women. This follows the allegation by the Trump administration that the use of Tylenol during pregnancy can cause autism. No credible studies have found conclusive evidence of a direct link between the drug and the cause of autism.
The active ingredient in Tylenol is acetaminophen, which is the focus of the allegation from the Trump administration. The federal Food and Drug Administration is now moving to require warning labels on any products containing acetaminophen stating the use of the drug could cause an increased risk of neurological conditions in children.
In his lawsuit, Paxton called out the maker of Tylenol – Johnson and Johnson – and spinoff Kenvue for “knowingly endangering millions to line their pockets.” Paxton’s suit also accuses Johnson and Johnson of establishing Kenvue for the purpose of transferring its liability. Johnson and Johnson has divested all interests in consumer health products. That area of their business was diverted to Kenvue in 2021.
Some studies have raised a possibility of a connection between Tylenol and autism, but many others have found no connection. The Coalition of Autism Scientists have concluded that the use of acetaminophen does not increase autism rates. The FDA is on record saying the association of acetaminophen to autism is “an ongoing area of scientific debate.”
The Texas suit alleges Johnson and Johnson was aware of the debate surrounding acetaminophen and the risks associated, and spun off its liability, thus violating Texas law that prohibits a debtor from transferring assets to prevent creditors from collecting.
Political Notes
Democratic US Senate candidate James Talarico – a state Representative from the Austin area – released a list of over 100 endorsements this week. Talarico built a profile during this year’s quorum break over the redrawing of the state’s Congressional districts and is now touting his support from several members of Congress, many of his House colleagues, and numerous locally elected officials throughout the state. In most recent polls, Talarico is running neck and neck with former Congressman Colin Allred, who was also the Democratic nominee in 2024. However, the race could change significantly if popular Democratic Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett of Dallas decides to enter the race. Crockett has also raised her national profile as a constant critic of the Trump administration. She has said she is strongly considering the race but will not make a decision until a there is a ruling from the courts on the validity of newly drawn districts.
Former Austin city council member Kathie Tovo announced this week she will run for the Democratic nomination for state House District 49, the seat being vacated by incumbent Rep. Gina Hinojosa who is running for Governor. Tovo served three terms on Austin City Council before running unsuccessfully for Mayor of Austin in 2024. Her city council district sat mostly inside House District 49. Tovo joins Montserray Garibay in the Democratic primary who announced his candidacy last week. The district is solidly blue, running through central Austin.
Republican state Rep. Nate Schatzline of Fort Worth will not seek reelection in 2026. He will instead join the board of the National Faith Advisory Board, a faith-based organization in Florida. Schatzline initially announced in June he would run for the state Senate seat left open by the resignation of then Senator Kelly Hancock – who resigned to become interim Comptroller. When Lt. Governor Dan Patrick endorsed Leigh Wambsganss for that seat, Schatzline then announced for reelection to his House seat. Now with only two weeks before the filing period begins, he has announced he will not seek reelection.
Immediately upon the announcement from Schatzline, Fort Worth City Councilman Alan Blaylock announced his intention to run for the Republican nomination for the House seat. Blaylock is a former tech executive with Nokia and currently chairs the Audit and Finance Committee on the city council. He joins Northwest ISD board trustee Steve Sprowls in the Republican primary. Sprowles launched a challenge to Schatzline this summer, saying that the district needed someone who gets results, not just a political hardliner. Look for Blaylock to get the endorsements and backing from the more conservative groups in the district. House District 93 is solidly red and covers parts of northern Fort Worth, as well as Blue Mound and Haslet in Tarrant County.
Republican state Rep. Briscoe Cain – now running for Congress — released a poll this week showing his lead over several other opponents in the race for the Republican nomination for Congressional District 9. Cain – from Deer Park — is facing six opponents in the redrawn District 9 based in southeast Harris County. His chief rival is former Republican nominee for Harris County Jude Alexandra del Moral Mealer. Cain’s internal polling shows him to be favored by 37% of the respondents compared to 16% for del Moral Mealer.
And finally, Republican Congressman Wesley Hunt has called on his opponents in the race for the Republican nomination for the US Senate to have a debate. Hunt would like to have incumbent US Senator John Cornyn and AG Ken Paxton join him on stage, arguing that the voters should hear directly from the three. Hunt sent a letter to the other campaigns requesting the debate and has proposed a 75-minute format in Houston, his hometown. Hunt says the voters deserve to hear from the candidates in a direct manner, instead of the paid advertising and social media posts that have been used by all three candidates so far. No word yet from the Cornyn or Paxton camps on the request.
What’s Next??
We will watch and report on the results from Tuesday’s election regarding the proposed amendments to the state constitution and the two special elections for the Texas Senate and Congressional seat in Houston.
We will also continue to watch the retirements, filings, and other movements regarding the 2026 races for legislative, congressional, and statewide offices.
Happy Halloween!! All you trick or treaters be safe out there!!