Speaker Race Update
State Rep. David Cook – the Republican from Mansfield who has emerged as the leading candidate to challenge incumbent Dade Phelan for the Speaker’s gavel – released a list of 48 supporters last weekend. It is the first time Cook has gone public with his list of committed supporters. The list is made up of members and Republican nominees who have also committed to only support a House Speaker that will appoint only Republicans to chair House committees next session. This number represents a slim majority of the 86-member Republican House caucus.
Phelan has come under intense criticism from the more conservative wing of the Republican party for his appointment of Democrats to chair the substantive House committees over the last two sessions that Phelan has presided over the House. Phelan has not released a list of supporters, but conventional wisdom dictates that Phelan’s best chance of retaining his Speakership is through a coalition comprised by a majority of Democratic members. Phelan still enjoys the support of several Republican members of the House, and that combined with what would have to be most – if not all – of the Democrats in the House could give him the 76 votes needed to be reelected as Speaker in 2025.
Presidential Polling Numbers
A new poll released by the Cook Political Report shows Vice-President Kamala Harris leading or tied with former President Trump in several battleground states. But her lead is very narrow, and within the margin of error. The survey – conducted from September 19-25 among registered voters – shows Harris leading in Nevada and Pennsylvania by 1 point, in Arizona and Wisconsin by 2 points, and in Michigan by 3 points. The survey has Trump leading in Georgia by 2 points and the two candidates are tied in North Carolina. These numbers remain consistent with a Cook Reportsurvey conducted in August. Since then, Harris has maintained her very slim lead but has not increased her advantage even though her campaign has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on TV ads and was deemed the winner of the September debate. On the flip side, Trump’s numbers remain consistent as well. He has not reached the 50% threshold in any of the swing states, begging the question of whether the independent voters in those states will support his candidacy.
A full analysis of the survey can be found here:
Cruz/Allred Race Update
In another sign that the race for US Senate is tightening up, the Cook Political Report has shifted the race from “likely” Republican to “lean” Republican. Cook – a self-described independent and non-partisan publication that analyzes state and federal elections – said that due to Allred’s continued fundraising prowess and Cruz’s continued defense of his stance on abortion and lingering negative effects of his trip to Cancun during the 2021 winter freeze are helping the Democratic challenger close the gap. However, the Cook Report does recognize Texas is still reliably Republican and it will be difficult for Allred to overtake the Republican incumbent.
The Progressive wing of the Democratic party pulled out all the stops this week when they brought in noted party leaders Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and Senator Bernie Sanders to campaign for Democratic nominee Colin Allred. At the invitation of Austin Congressman Greg Casar, the two national figures appeared at Texas State University in San Marcos on Tuesday to encourage all students to register to vote and support Allred. Democrats see college students as a key to making the state more competitive, and Texas State fits into their narrative. Texas State in San Marcos is in Hays County, south of Austin on I-35. Hays County has seen tremendous growth over the last 10 years, far outpacing the state’s population growth, and has had a 67% growth in more registered voters over the last decade.
Incumbent Republican Ted Cruz continues to focus almost exclusively on the immigration and border crisis. Cruz has begun TV ads running statewide that feature the mother of Jocelyn Nungaray, the 12-year-old that was murdered near Houston earlier this year. Two undocumented men from Venezuela have been charged with her murder. The ads tie the record-breaking number of border crossings over the last four years with an increase in crime. Cruz has said he will push for federal legislation that would require federal immigration officials to detain all migrants or provide a monitoring device so they can be tracked. Cruz claims that crimes like the murder of Nungaray could have been prevented with federal monitoring of all migrants, while Allred criticizes Cruz for exploiting a family tragedy for personal gain. Allred goes on to say that Cruz has been in the Senate for 12 years and has done nothing to address immigration issues.
Voting/Election News
This coming Monday, October 7th is the last day to register to vote in this year’s November election if you are not already registered. The Texas Secretary of State’s office has all information necessary to find out if you are registered, need to update your registration information, and links to voter registration applications. Any US citizen that is 18 years of age on election day can submit an application to the election official in their home county. Convicted felons that are still serving the terms of their sentence, or anyone legally declared mentally incapacitated are the two exceptions to eligibility.
Check your registration status here: https://teamrv-mvp.sos.texas.gov/MVP/mvp.do
Voter registration application: https://vrapp.sos.state.tx.us/index.asp
List of all county election offices: https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/voter/votregduties.shtml#H
Texas currently has 21.9 million people that are eligible to vote and the rolls currently have 18.4 million registered voters. For the 2020 Presidential election, Texas had 16.9 million registered voters. The 18.4 million represents an 8.7% increase in registered voters over the last four years, with the final registration numbers to come next week. The rolls here are on pace with other fast growth states such as North Carolina and Florida. A vast majority of new voter registrations have come from the Houston area and along the I-35 corridor where most of the state’ growth is concentrated. This growth represents the areas that also trended more to the Democrats in recent years, suggesting that while Texas has remained reliably red, future elections could show the state being more competitive for the Democrats. No Democrat has won a statewide election since 1994, and no Democratic candidate for President has won Texas since 1976.
AG Ken Paxton has vowed to continue his fight against vote harvesting after a federal judge issued a ruling this week that will limit the state’s ability to investigate the practice. This comes after Paxton targeted LULAC in San Antonio last month for their efforts to organize voter registration efforts. LULAC and other groups filed suit against Paxton challenging his ability to conduct the relative investigations, saying the 2021 comprehensive Texas voting procedures law is vague and restricts free speech. The court agreed with the plaintiffs, stating in the ruling that the Texas statute is “confusing, vague, and violates freedom of speech.” Under the provision in the 2021 law, those who assist voters with mail-in-ballot voters in exchange for compensation can be fined up to $10,000 and are subject to a 10-year prison sentence. Other legal challenges regarding voter assistance are continuing as well.
High Homeowner Insurance Rates Getting Attention
The Senate Business and Commerce committee met this week to discuss the soaring insurance rates that Texas homeowners have experienced in recent years. In addition to the rising costs of premiums, many carriers have chosen to not renew many homeowners’ policies. The state currently has a “file and use” system, where insurance companies can change the rates on policies without prior approval from state regulators. The companies favor this system because they say it creates a more competitive market. However, with rising rates, lawmakers are not convinced this system should continue.
According to testimony from the state insurance commissioner, home insurance rates increased by 21% from 2022 to 2023, which was the biggest jump in over 10 years. In addition, 138,000 Texas homeowner’s policies were not renewed, and four insurance companies exited the state market this year. Insurance companies say the rate increases are needed so they can contend with the frequency of natural disasters as well as the rising costs of construction, and the increasing value of new homes. Lawmakers must decide whether they should put tighter controls on the rates charged by the companies – which could cause more companies to exit the state – or leave the current system in place, hoping a more competitive market eventually stabilizes the rate increases.
Texas Launches Stock Exchange
The Texas Stock Exchange announced its board of directors this week in preparation for the first execution of stock trades in 2025 and its official listing in 2026. The new exchange is intended to provide Texas based businesses access to capital similar to long-established platforms such as the New York Stock Exchange. Texas is home to nearly 10% of all publicly traded companies, including large corporations such as Exxon, Mobil, Dell Computer, Tesla, and Chevron. The new Texas exchange will register with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and has already raised over $135 million from investments funds including BlackRock and Citadel Securities. Newly appointed board members include former Texas Governor Rick Perry, former SEC Commissioner Rick Roberts, and Alex Bussandri of Citadel Securities.
Political Notes
Former President Trump was in Texas this week for fundraisers in Houston and Midland. Trump stayed overnight in Houston on Tuesday and attended a fundraiser at the Post Oak Hotel hosted by Republican donors including Houston Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta and Jeff Hilderbrand of Hilcorp Energy. Trump then flew to Midland Wednesday afternoon for another fundraising event. Lt. Governor Dan Patrick accompanied Trump on the plane ride from Houston to Midland. Trump made no public appearances while in the state and then headed out for campaign rallies in Michigan and North Carolina.
Former Illinois Congressman Adam Kinzinger – who now lives in The Woodlands – has formed a group of Republicans to support Democrat Colin Allred over Ted Cruz. Kinzinger was a consistent and harsh critic of Trump during his years in Congress and did not seek reelection in 2022 after his district was redrawn in favor of a more pro-Trump candidate. Kinzinger says he has met with many Republicans who are “embarrassed” by Trump and his supporters that continue to further theories about the 2020 election being stolen and says he wants the party to move away from candidates and officeholders such as Cruz. Kinzinger also endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris in a speech at the Democratic National Convention earlier this summer. Other members of the group include former Dallas Mayor and Congressman Steve Bartlett, and former state Representatives Jason Villalba and Todd Smith.
What’s Next??
The House Transportation Committee will meet on Thursday to discuss long-term needs for the port and maritime industry in Texas, as well as to evaluate the status of state-maintained bridges.
The Senate Finance Committee meets on Wednesday to discuss possible incentives for the film and movie industry and to review public school enrollment trends.
Here is a link to the full list of hearings later this summer and fall, and the agenda for each hearing: https://capitol.texas.gov
There are 32 days until the general election and 101 days until the start of the regular legislative session.