Here’s a quick recap of what happened over the last week:
Fifth, Sixth Speaker Candidates Join Race
Amarillo Republican Rep. John Smithee has become the 5th Republican House member to join the race for Speaker of the Texas House. Smithee was an outspoken critic of the process in the House last summer to impeach Attorney General Ken Paxton. First elected in 1984, he is one of the most senior members of the House, representing a solidly Republican district that includes part of Amarillo and six other surrounding counties. He currently serves on the House State Affairs and Juvenile Justice committees.
And the race for Speaker now has its first Democratic party entry. Rep. Ana Maria Ramos of Richardson said she made her decision to run for Speaker after hearing a speech from former First Lady Michelle Obama at the Democratic National Convention that motivated her to make the run for Speaker. Ramos faces a steep uphill battle. Democrats hold only 64 of the 150 seats in the House and flipping the House to Democratic control in the November elections is a virtual impossibility. Ramos was first elected in 2018 and serves a district in the suburban Dallas area.
Smithee and Ramos join Rep. Tom Oliverson, Rep. David Cook, Rep. Shelby Slawson and Rep. James Frank – all Republicans — as challengers to incumbent Speaker Dade Phelan.
Also, regarding the Speaker’s race, there is apparently a gathering of at least 50 Republican House members taking place later today to discuss the state of the Speaker’s race. According to the Quorum Report, Republican House members that are not committed to incumbent Speaker Dade Phelan are meeting to conduct a straw poll of sorts to determine if any of the five Republican candidates already in the race have any momentum among the Republican caucus. Possibilities are limitless at the outcome of this meeting, including the emergence of one of the declared candidates displaying a show of force or the revelation of a new candidate for Speaker that has not previously been discussed. In the end, the state of the race will probably remain the same until the November election. Stay tuned…
Presidential Polling News
Emerson College and The Hill just released a poll showing the Presidential race is very tight in several key battleground states with the election just 46 days away. Former President Trump is leading Vice-President Harris in Arizona (49-48), Georgia (50-47), Pennsylvania (48-47), and Wisconsin (49-48). Harris is leading in Michigan (48-47) and in North Carolina (49-48). The poll surveyed likely voters in each state and has a margin of error of 3.1%.
A Marist poll also released this week showed some slightly different results. That poll showed Harris leading in Michigan by a 52% to 47% margin and leading in Wisconsin by one point at 50-49. The Maris poll showed the candidates tied in Pennsylvania with 49% each.
Regardless of the poll numbers, no one can dispute this will be an extremely close election, and there are very few undecideds remaining. Therefore, the candidates must concentrate on getting their voters to the polls on election day.
Abbott Endorsements
Gov. Abbott has begun making endorsements for the November elections in competitive state House races. There are only a few competitive House races that could see a party switch this fall. In one seat that is likely to switch party hands, Abbott has endorsed former Uvalde Mayor Don McLaughlin against Democrat Cecilia Castellano in the race to succeed Rep. Tracy King, a Democrat from Uvalde. That south Texas seat has been trending more Republican in recent election cycles.
Another open House seat currently held by a Democrat is in the Corpus area where Democratic Rep. Abel Herrero is retiring. Abbott has endorsed Republican Denise Villalobos against Democrat Solomon Ortiz, Jr, the former state representative from Corpus Christi. Abbott has also endorsed Republican Steve Kinard against incumbent Democrat state Rep. Miheala Plesa of Plano in a north Texas seat that is considered the closest “swing” district in the state.
And in a race that leans more towards the Democrats, Abbott has endorsed Republican Robert Garza against incumbent Rep. Eddie Morales of Eagle Pass in a south Texas district that has never elected a Republican. Garza is the former mayor of Del Rio. Morales won against a Republican opponent in 2022 by 11 points.
Border News
Gov. Abbott announced this week the state is launching a crackdown on a Venezuelan gang called Tren de Aragua (TDA) by officially declaring the group a foreign terrorist organization. According to law enforcement, TDA is the largest criminal organization in Venezuela and preys on migrants from Venezuela and other South American countries by charging them fees to help migrate north and forces others into human trafficking for sexual purposes. An estimated 700,000 Venezuelans have migrated to the US in recent years due to economic and political upheaval there and it is believed the TDA has both migrated among the masses and recruited membership from Venezuelans living in the US.
The group is linked to several high-profile criminal cases recently including the shooting of two New York police officers and allegedly taking over an entire apartment building in Aurora, Colorado as a base for their criminal activities. Texas Department of Public Safety officials believe the gang is active across Texas, and that El Paso is the center of their presence for now. Law enforcement claims El Paso is being used as a “distribution point” for the organization to bring in new members from Venezuela and use as a base for their trafficking operations. Like the apartment complex in Aurora, the gang has allegedly taken over the Gateway Hotel in downtown El Paso. That hotel has drawn national attention due to suspected gang activity.
Abbott has ordered the DPS to elevate TDA to a tier 1 gang, which is considered the biggest threat to public safety and to coordinate a strike team to identify and arrest any known TDA members in Texas.
In other border news, the Border Report published an article this week confirming cartel members in Mexico are using drones to deliver drugs in El Paso. Law enforcement from both countries say that the cartels are operating from a plaza about 100 yards south of the Rio Grande. The cartels of Juarez specialize in methamphetamine, particularly crystal meth, or “ice”. The cartels have increased their use of drones over the last few months not only to deliver drugs, but to also conduct surveillance on both Mexican and US law enforcement. They are also using the drones to attack rival cartels with homemade bombs.
Election/Voting Issues
At the request of AG Ken Paxton, the Texas Secretary of State has sent a request to the director of US Citizenship and Immigration Services regarding the citizenship status for individuals who are registered to vote but have yet to validate their citizenship through the state. The letter – from Secretary of State Jane Nelson — claims the state is entitled to receive citizenship status from the federal government because it is her duty as the chief elections officer in the state to validate the information. Nelson went on to cite in the letter that she expects the federal agency to comply with the request due to federal law that states her office cannot be prevented from obtaining the information on file with the federal government. Nelson explained in the letter that she is seeking the federal assistance because the state does not have the resources to complete the validation process regarding the people on the state voter rolls that the state has not been able to verify. Nelson asks for the information by October 2nd to give the state time to purge any names necessary prior to the November 5th election.
And following up on the lawsuits filed by AG Ken Paxton against Bexar County, a state district judge in San Antonio has denied AG Ken Paxton’s attempt to block Bexar County’s plan to mail voter registration forms to county residents. In the initial hearing, attorneys for the county argued that there is no need for the court to intervene because the forms had already been mailed out. The state was seeking an injunction against the plan, saying that the result would be to register ineligible people to vote. So, since the registration forms had already gone out and any ruling from the bench would be moot, the lawsuit was dismissed.
And now in a turn of events, Travis County is suing the state in federal court saying the AG has violated the federal National Voter Registration Act by trying to block their registration efforts. As a little background, Paxton also sued Travis County last week when they announced they were planning a similar voter registration effort to that of Bexar County. Paxton sued Travis County claiming they were using a partisan campaign organization to locate unregistered voters. In the lawsuit, the county is asking a judge to declare the county’s efforts lawful, and thus allowing their voter registration outreach program to move forward.
Odds and Ends
Testifying before the Senate Education this week, Texas Education Commissioner Mike Morath called on lawmakers to pass legislation to ban the use of cell phones in public schools. Morath said the use of phones in schools is harmful to student progress because they are a distraction to learning and lead to harmful mental health issues. Many school districts throughout the state have already banned the use of cell phones by students, so this can already be done administratively by local school boards.
A state district judge in Dallas has allowed the ban on firearms at the State Fair to remain in effect. AG Ken Paxton sued the city of Dallas for allowing the new policy on city owned property. But the judge ruled that since the Fair is run by a private, nonprofit organization, the ban could remain in effect.
In a rare show of bipartisanship, a majority of Texas House members have urged the Board of Pardons and Paroles to grant clemency to a man who was sentenced to death in 2003 for the killing of his 2-year-old daughter. Robert Roberson has always maintained his innocence, saying his conviction was based on incorrect and unfounded evidence. The lawmakers are urging the agency to reconsider the case due to new scientific evidence that proves the child’s death was natural and accidental. The Board can make a recommendation, but the final decision lies with Gov. Abbott. The Board has until October 15th to make a recommendation, which is two days before Roberson’s schedule execution.
Political Notes
Doug Emhoff, the husband of Vice-President Kamala Harris, will be in Texas next week for fundraising events in Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. The campaign has not disclosed the times or specific locations of the events. While in San Antonio, he will also attend a “Freedom to Vote” rally. He will be joined at the rally by Democratic Senate candidate Colin Allred and former Housing Secretary and San Antonio mayor Julian Castro as well as his brother, Congressman Joaquin Castro.
A group relatively new to the Texas polling scene called Texas Public Opinion Research released a poll this week showing former President Trump leading Vice-President Kamala Harris by 8 points in Texas. The group calls itself a “nonpartisan initiative dedicated to studying and analyzing Texans’ beliefs and policy preferences.” The poll also found incumbent US Senator Ted Cruz leading Democratic challenger Colin Allred by 4 points. The poll also looked at issues important to voting Texans. In the poll, 34% named border security as their top concern, while 29% named affordability and inflation. The poll was conducted from August 24-29 among 800 registered Texas voters.
Even though the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee is placing an emphasis on protecting the Democratic US Senate incumbents, it has made a $25 million investment in 10 states – including Texas – to enhance voter contact through door knocking, phone banking, and other voter outreach methods. The DSCC has consistently stated that they would consider flipping seats in Texas and Florida as their top prize where Republicans Ted Cruz and Rick Scott are currently seeking reelection.
The Wall Street Journal reported this week that their investigation showed that Elon Musk was the primary funder of a PAC created to unseat Travis County DA Jose Garza. The PAC was started as Saving Austin and had the sole focus of ousting the controversial DA that ultimately won reelection in March. Fliers funded by and sent out by the PAC criticized Garza for his “radical ideology” and trend of allowing violent criminals to be released on bail while awaiting trial. Including the circulation of the fliers, the PAC spent over $650,000 that also included a series of television ads airing in Austin.
What’s Next??
There are several hearings on both sides of the rotunda next week:
The House Appropriations committee meets on Tuesday to discuss a wide array of topics including funding for broadband infrastructure, expansion of the Texas Energy Fund, and to review population growth trends.
The House Natural Resources committee meets on Tuesday to review state policy regarding groundwater infrastructure projects and the reliability of access to clean water.
The House Ways and Means committee meets Wednesday to review and discuss property tax valuations and explore the possibility of eliminating public school property taxes.
The Senate Higher Education subcommittee meets on Wednesday to discuss their interim charges.
Here is a link to the full list of hearings later this summer and fall, and the agenda for each hearing: https://capitol.texas.gov
There are 46 days until the general election and 115 days until the start of the regular legislative session.